Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Zeeland West Rumbles to Another Title

November 27, 2015

By Bill Khan
Special for Second Half

DETROIT — The Zeeland West offensive machine was in good hands the last three seasons with Casey Brinks directing the attack.

The Dux’ senior quarterback brought two teams to Ford Field during his varsity career, and ended it Friday night helping hoist a second MHSAA championship trophy.

West scored its first of five touchdowns with 35 seconds left in the first quarter and didn't let up from there, pounding its way to a 40-14 victory over Flint Powers Catholic for a fourth championship in 10 years.

"That one (in 2013) was really fun, but this one to me is a lot better, just being a senior and it's my last year," Brinks said. "To end my football career playing on a state championship team in Ford Field is amazing."

Brinks was the starting quarterback as a sophomore when West won its last title, throwing for one touchdown and running for another in a 34-27 victory over DeWitt in the Division 3 championship game. He also led West to the Semifinal round a year ago.

Brinks was one of three Dux who played in the 2013 championship game, the others being running back Dakota Geurink and lineman Zach VanValkenburg. Geurink ran 14 times for 71 yards and a touchdown Friday. VanValkenburg had two sacks among three tackles for losses.

With his team facing fourth-and five near the end of the first quarter, fullback Darius Perisee scored on an 8-yard run for the opening touchdown and then added a 2-point conversion run. He was the top gainer for West's powerful T offense, finishing this season with 1,982 yards and 30 touchdowns rushing.

Brinks doesn't pass often but he was highly effective when he did. He finished 4 for 4 for 103 yards, with three straight completions on the team’s third possession. Tyler Thompson capped that drive with a 5-yard touchdown run, then added a 2-point run to make it 16-0 with 4:03 left in the second quarter.

Powers (11-3) drove to the West 18 late in the first half, only to be denied on the final play before halftime when Brinks picked off a pass in the end zone. He also had an interception in the third quarter, playing defense for only the second time this season.

"I played defense last week for the first time," said Brinks, who ran five times for 45 yards and a touchdown. "Otherwise, I didn't play defense. It was nice to play. Mostly in the playoffs, we've been playing running teams. We've played two passing teams the past two weeks."

West came into the game running the ball 94 percent of the time and averaging 8.6 yards per carry. Even though Powers knew what was coming, the Chargers were unable to stop the Dux’ power-running attack.

Powers did get a huge stop when Reese Morgan caught Brinks for no gain on fourth-and-three from the Chargers' 5-yard line on the first series of the game, but West went on to score on its next five drives before running out the final 3:55 on its final possession.

"It's just a very deceiving offense they run," Morgan said. "It's hard to know who has the ball."

The Chargers nearly turned the momentum from that first defensive stop into a scoring drive of their own, marching down to West's 14-yard line on their first possession. On fourth-and-one, however, quarterback Noah Sargent came up inches short of a first down with 4:53 left in the first quarter.

"That was tough, but you can't say we lost the game on one play," said Sargent, who ran 17 times for 89 yards and a touchdown while going 12 for 19 for 158 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions through the air. "You've got to play the whole game."

Powers got on the board on the first possession of the second half, scoring on a 15-yard run by Sargent, but a 2-point run by Morgan was stopped by Riley Brinks. With West cashing in on all five of its 2-point conversion tries, the Chargers couldn't afford to miss theirs.

West (14-0) responded with a 13-play, 80-yard march that ended on a 4-yard run by Geurink with 3:14 to go in the third quarter. Following Casey Brinks' second interception, West built its lead to 32-6 on a 2-yard run by Thompson with 10:36 to go in the game.

Luke Brcic caught a 35-yard touchdown pass from Sargent and threw a 2-point conversion to Morgan with 7:28 remaining, getting Powers within 32-14, but Aaron Sleeman recovered the onside kick for the Dux.

Four plays later, West capped the scoring on a 39-yard run by Casey Brinks and Perisee's third 2-point run with 5:13 remaining.

Geurink picked off a pass with 3:55 remaining, and West was able to run out the rest of the clock and celebrate another championship.

"We've won four," West coach John Shillito said. "They're all different, but this one might have been the most complete on both sides of the ball. It's maybe not the deepest team, because we were playing a lot of guys two ways. I looked out there and we looked a little tired at times, because it's warm in here. It's maybe not the deepest (team), but the guys on the field were probably the best we've had."

West was able to score 40 points against a Powers team that had a school-record six shutouts, allowing only 21 points over its first four playoff games.

"I really just figured we had to score every time we had the ball, because no one has really stopped them all year," Powers coach Bob Buckel said. "Playing them, you start doing things you're uncomfortable doing, because you don't want to turn the ball over to them." 

Thompson ran 16 times for 117 yards and two touchdowns to lead a West ground attack that had 318 yards and five touchdowns on 55 carries.

Matt Wiskur caught five passes for 70 yards, while Morgan ran 13 times for 61 yards for Powers. Both of them had brothers on the Chargers' 2011 Division 5 championship team. 

Click for the full box score.

The MHSAA Football Finals are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) Darius Perisee breaks free for yardage in leading the Zeeland West rushing attack Friday. (Middle) The Dux hoist a championship trophy for the second time in three seasons.