Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Playoffs R2 in Review
November 9, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The second week of the MHSAA football playoffs again was filled with rematches of some of the regular-season’s most touted games.
And the mix of results – close wins, comebacks and victories by the avenged – surely will impact which teams appear in nine championship games later this month.
Below are results that stuck out most as 136 turned into 68.
Division 1
Saline 27, Ann Arbor Pioneer 23
Pioneer made this rematch of Southeastern Conference Red rivals more like the game it was expected to be Week 6, when Saline (10-0) won 37-21. The Pioneers (7-4) led into the third quarter and early in the fourth, but the reigning Division 1 runner-up earned its second straight District title with a late score and defensive stand. Click for more from AnnArbor.com.
Also noted:
Romeo 34, Lapeer 14 – The Bulldogs (10-1) advanced to a Regional Final for the first time since 1992, with Lapeer receiving its first and only loss in the District Final for the second straight year.
Rockford 21, Hudsonville 13 – The Rams (8-3) downed Hudsonville (7-4) for the second time in three weeks; the first win gave Rockford a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red championship, and this win earned a first District title since 2012.
Grand Ledge 45, Brighton 21 – Grand Ledge (11-0) earned its first District title since 2005 against a Brighton team that at 9-2 won its most games since that same season.
Canton 34, Northville 27 – The Chiefs (9-2) rode a dominating ground game to a second straight District title and handed Northville (10-1) the only loss during a season in which it set a school record for wins.
Division 2
Muskegon 21, Muskegon Mona Shores 10
The second matchup in four weeks between these rivals was just as entertaining. After falling 21-18 in the first meeting, Muskegon (9-2) scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to take the rematch and end the season for the reigning MHSAA runner-up. Mona Shores (10-1) followed up its best season ever with a second of double-digit victories. Muskegon is trying to get back to Ford Field for the fourth straight season. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
Walled Lake Western 34, Birmingham Groves 21 – Western (11-0) won this matchup of undefeated teams to get to 11 wins for the first time since 2011, while ending Groves’ winningest season at 10-1.
Livonia Franklin 63, Jackson 35 – After four straight sub-.500 seasons, Franklin (8-3) won its first District title since 2007 and clinched its best record since at least 2005; Jackson (8-3) won its most games since at least 1950 and after five straight finishes below .500.
Berkley 28, Southfield 20 – The first district title for Berkley (9-2) included tying the team record for wins and downing a Southfield team (7-4) that made the Division 2 Semifinals a season ago.
Midland Dow 41, Fenton 14 – The Chargers are 10-1 for the second straight season and headed to a Regional for the first time since 1997 after handing Fenton (9-2) its first loss since opening night.
Division 3
St. Johns 42, DeWitt 28
Count this as a statewide stunner for the Redwings (8-3), even with their tradition of success as they won their eighth game for the third time in four seasons. St. Johns had dropped six straight to the rival Panthers, including 49-21 only four weeks ago, but jumped to a 28-7 first-quarter lead and rode a mix of rushing and passing to put up the most points DeWitt (9-2) had given up since 2012. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Mount Pleasant 16, Petoskey 13 – The Oilers (9-2) won their second District title in three seasons after Connor Fiolek drilled a 42-yard field goal with 24 seconds left to push ahead of Petoskey (8-3).
St. Joseph 40, Edwardsburg 28 – The Bears (10-1) continued to fade out memories of last year’s 4-5, adding a District title to a shared league crown in handing Edwardsburg (10-1) its lone loss.
Coldwater 35, Vicksburg 14 – Coldwater’s first playoff win ever two weeks ago now is now a successful pair as the Cardinals (11-0) ended a five-game winning streak by the Bulldogs (8-3).
Chelsea 29, Trenton 16 – These Bulldogs (10-1) won their second straight District title and went over nine wins for the first time since 2007 by ending the best run since 2005 for Trenton (9-2).
Division 4
Hudsonville Unity Christian 23, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 21
Unity Christian isn’t just a soccer school anymore. The Crusaders improved to 8-3, those wins their most in their 13 seasons of football, and they earned the milestone victory against a program only five seasons removed from its most recent Ford Field trip. GRCC (9-2) improved three wins from a year ago, but was eliminated when Unity Christian’s Connor Hollemans converted a 26-yard field goal with six seconds to play. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Ada Forest Hills Eastern 21, Comstock Park 13 – The Hawks (10-1) added the first District title of their 12-year history by ending a sixth-straight playoff appearance by the Panthers (8-3).
Richmond 17, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 15 – The Blue Devils (10-1) won their second straight District title after holding off a comeback attempt that included two fourth-quarter scores by the Irish (8-3), who bounced back from 3-5 a year ago.
Milan 67, Detroit Denby 44 – Milan (9-2) has put up more points by far than even its double-digit win seasons of the last two decades, and needed them this time to hold off a Denby team (6-5) that scored its most in a game since 2013.
Remus Chippewa Hills 35, Big Rapids 12 – The Warriors (9-2) won their first District title by ending the best season for Big Rapids since 2012 after the Cardinals (7-4) won only one game a year ago.
Division 5
Lansing Catholic 21, Portland 14
This too turned out more like what was expected the first time these teams matched up this season. Portland downed Lansing Catholic 28-6 in Week 4, but the Cougars followed their star quarterback Tony Poljan this time with just enough big plays to hand the Raiders (10-1) their first and only loss. He ran for two scores and connected on a key long pass to help Lansing Catholic (10-1) to within two more wins of returning to Ford Field after finishing runner-up a year ago. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Grand Rapids West Catholic 21, Reed City 14 – The Falcons (9-2) won their sixth straight District title with their eighth straight victory, ending the season for Reed City (10-1) for the third time in five years.
Buchanan 35, Berrien Springs 0 – These two played to a two-point win for Buchanan in Week 8, but the Bucks (11-0) must have found what they needed to shut down the Shamrocks (9-2).
River Rouge 42, Detroit University Prep 0 – River Rouge (10-1) has three District titles and three double-digit win totals in four seasons after ending this one for University Prep (7-4).
Ida 39, Dearborn Heights Robichaud 30 – The Bluestreaks’ best season ever continued with their first District title to move to 11-0, while Robichaud (8-3) finished with at least that many wins for the third time in four seasons.
Division 6
Constantine 49, Watervliet 48
The 17th straight playoff berth for Constantine came at-large with a 5-4 regular-season record, but the Falcons have looked like anything but a team that just got into the postseason. First came a three-point win over previously-undefeated rival Schoolcraft. This week’s one-point win ended the season for another league champion in Watervliet (9-2), which beat Constantine by 21 in Week 6. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.
Also noted:
Ithaca 42, Sanford Meridian 6 – Ithaca (11-0) still hasn’t let an opponent come within 28 points, including now Jack Pine Conference champion Sanford Meridian (10-1), which posted its best record ever this fall.
Jackson Lumen Christi 45, Manchester 28 – Three losses over the final five games of the regular season haven’t slowed down Lumen Christi (8-3) in the playoffs, as the Titans this week posted an impressive win over the Cascades Conference champion Dutchmen (9-2).
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 31, Montague 28 – The Mustangs (11-0) are looking like a contender again for the second straight year after handing rejuvenated Montague (10-1) its only loss.
Clinton 43, Madison Heights Madison 20 – Clinton has owned the road, moving to 11-0 with a sound defeat of host Madison (9-2) after beating the reigning champion Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central in the District opener.
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia 38, Saugatuck 28
The Pirates’ fifth straight District championship might have been the toughest to earn against previously-undefeated Saugatuck (10-1). Pewamo-Westphalia (11-0) scored 16 points over the final six minutes to move on. Saugatuck finished with 10 wins for the second time in program history and first since finishing Division 8 runner-up in 2010. Click for more from the Ionia Sentinel-Standard.
Also noted:
McBain 20, Saginaw Nouvel 19 (OT) – The Ramblers (8-3) went for a two-point conversion down one in overtime and extended their best season since 2011 while ending Nouvel’s at 9-2.
Sandusky 7, Cass City 0 – A touchdown on fourth down with less than a minute to play gave Sandusky (11-0) its first District title and continued the Redskins’ best season while ending the best run for Cass City (8-3) since 2005.
Dansville 35, Homer 21 – The Aggies (10-1) have 10 wins and a District title for the first time after defeating Big 8 Conference champion Homer (8-3).
New Lothrop 37, Flint Beecher 7 – The Hornets (11-0) won this unofficial Genesee Area Conference crossover and with it a third straight District title, although Beecher (7-3) did score the first points New Lothrop had given up in four weeks.
Division 8
Muskegon Catholic Central 48, Beal City 13
The rematch of the 2013 Division 8 Final again went the Crusaders' way, as MCC rushed for 402 yards and five touchdowns to break open a game still close at halftime. Muskegon Catholic Central has scored at least 48 points the last three games after scoring only six points in a Week 8 loss to Detroit Country Day – the two-time reigning champion put up more points than Beal City had given up in a game since 2011. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
St. Ignace 16, Johannesburg-Lewiston 8 – Although they finished ahead of Johannesburg-Lewiston (9-2) in the Ski Valley Conference, the Saints (10-1) ended up on the road but came away with a fourth District title in five seasons.
Frankfort 28, Onekama 21 – Frankfort (9-2) earned its first District title since 2009 with a quick turnaround after falling to Onekama (9-2) by 13 points only two weeks ago.
Ottawa Lake Whiteford 26, Morenci 6 – After taking a pair of losses from Tri-County Conference rival Morenci (8-3) in 2014, Whiteford (9-2) returned the favors with its second this fall after also winning the Week 7 matchup.
Crystal Falls Forest Park 26, Bark River-Harris 22 – For the second straight week, Forest Park (7-3) avenged a regular-season loss, this time bouncing back from a one-point opening-night defeat to the Broncos (8-3).
8-Player
Battle Creek St. Philip 58, Lawrence 14
In an odd turn of schedule, St. Philip (11-0) has faced two opponents twice over the last four weeks – Portland St. Patrick in Week 8 and in the Pre-Regional, and then Lawrence in Week 9 and the Regional Final. The first St. Philip-Lawrence meeting came out a three-point St. Philip win, which made this result a little surprising from a score margin point of view. St. Philip had been eliminated the last two seasons by Lawrence (8-3), last year’s eventual champion. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Also noted:
Cedarville 22, Posen 20 (OT) – Two points one way went the other this time, as Cedarville (9-2) avenged a 28-26 Week 6 loss to Posen (10-1) to make a second straight Semifinal.
Powers North Central 64, Rapid River 8 – Believe it or not, North Central (11-0) tied its season low in points in ending a fifth-straight winning season for the Rockets (7-4).
Deckerville 40, Morrice 20 – Deckerville (10-1) also avenged a regular-season loss and its only loss this season, a Week 6 four-point defeat to Morrice (9-2).
PHOTO: Muskegon Catholic Central (gold helmets) defeated Beal City in a playoff game for the second time in three seasons. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)