Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
MCC Follows 'Big #77' in 3-Peat Attempt
November 4, 2015
By Tom Kendra
Special for Second Half
Jacob Holt will be in the middle of the action, guaranteed, when two great football traditions collide Saturday afternoon in Beal City.
Holt is a four-year starter up front for Muskegon Catholic Central, which ventures toward the middle of the mitten to Beal City in its quest for a third consecutive MHSAA Division 8 championship.
“We know we have to play our best or it will be our last game,” said Holt (6-foot, 245), a senior guard and defensive end for the Crusaders, who were ranked No. 1 in Division 8 in the final Associated Press state poll. “This is a completely different team than the past two years, but our motivation is to uphold the MCC tradition.”
Holt brings a wealth of size, talent and, perhaps most importantly, experience into Saturday’s showdown. He has started nearly 48 games for MCC over the past four years – leading his team to the Semifinals in 2012, starting all 14 games each of the next two years for back-to-back championship teams, and all nine games this year for the 7-2 Crusaders.
Holt is a force on an offensive line which is very good, but not quite the wrecking machine of a year ago.
MCC lost three players off last year’s offensive line who earned some form of all-state recognition – Jaeden MacPherson (now at Ferris State), Michael Caughey (Benedictine in Atchison, Kan.) and Lamar Jordan (St. Francis in Joliet, Ill.).
The new line showed its youth in this season’s opening game at perennial Division 5 powerhouse Muskegon Oakridge. The Eagles rolled to a 31-0 halftime lead and, eventually, a 45-26 victory, snapping MCC’s 26-game winning streak.
Since that game, the Crusaders’ line has come of age behind Holt, who will likely go down as one of the best pulling guards to ever play for veteran MCC line coach and defensive coordinator Mike Ribecky.
“Jacob is just really coordinated and skilled for his size,” said third-year MCC coach Steve Czerwon, whose team has won seven of its last eight games, with its only loss during that stretch coming Week 8 at Detroit Country Day, the top-ranked team in Division 4. “We try to take advantage of that in different ways. We pull him quite a bit and he has played about 20 snaps this season at fullback.”
In his normal position at guard, Holt anchors the strong right side of the Crusaders’ line, which also includes monstrous junior tackle Brock Johnson (6-1, 280) and senior tight end Nate Jones, who made his 50th consecutive varsity start in last week’s 49-7 win over visiting Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart.
Also missing off those back-to-back championship winners is quarterback Nick Holt, Jacob’s older brother and the unquestioned leader of those powerhouse teams. The Holts also made up the battery of MCC’s MHSAA championship baseball team this spring, with Nick on the pitcher’s mound and Jacob at catcher.
“It’s been weird not having him around this fall,” said Jacob of his older brother, who is now a freshman at Hope College, where he is a pitcher on the baseball team. “I miss riding home with him after every game and every practice and just going over everything. We still text all the time, but it’s not the same.”
Nick Holt had to make a difficult choice between playing baseball or football in college, and Jacob will soon face the same agonizing decision. Among the schools pursuing him in football are Saginaw Valley State, Wayne State, Northwood, Mount Union (Ohio) and Hope, while he is actively being recruited in baseball by Kalamazoo College, Aquinas College and Hope.
Stepping into Nick Holt’s big shoes at the quarterback spot is senior Christian Martinez, who has assumed a more traditional ball distribution role – getting the ball to junior running backs Logan Helton and LaTommy Scott, as well as his favorite aerial target in junior Walker Christoffersen.
Holt gives much of the credit for his success to his parents, Mike and Cathi Holt, who raised their two sons to be both competitive and humble in everything they do.
“My dad has been my coach ever since I was a little kid,” said Jacob, 17, who has a 3.88 GPA and scored a 27 on his ACT. “He taught me how to be a man. The big thing with him was, win or lose, we weren’t going to be poor sports.”
Mike Holt, now in his 16th year as a science teacher at MCC, has influenced more than just his two sons for the Crusaders’ football program. Holt is the Crusaders’ middle school head football coach and, along with former MCC great and Northern Illinois Hall of Famer Frank Lewandoski, has played a big part in the development of the program’s players for the past six years.
This fall, the school district took it a step further with the formation of the Muskegon Catholic Central Youth Football Club, which was organized by current MCC School Board President Andy Riegler, who quarterbacked the Crusaders to a Class C championship in 1990. Czerwon called the club’s first season “hugely successful.”
Those kinds of efforts at the lower levels help explain MCC’s continued success, despite steadily declining enrollment over the past 35 years.
“We’re blessed to have quality coaches at the middle school and the youth levels, who really care about the kids,” said Czerwon, who boasts a gaudy 33-4 record in his three years as head coach.
MCC first broke through in the football playoffs as a Class B school, winning MHSAA titles in 1980 and 1982. The Crusaders won three Class C championships in the 1990s and have won five titles in either Division 7 or Division 8 during the first 15 seasons the 2000s.
With a current enrollment of 177 students, MCC is a Class D school in size, but the standards and expectations for the football program have remained as high as ever.
Many of those young kids aspire to someday be like Jacob Holt, big No. 77, who sets a great example for them both on and off the field.
Holt will need to be at his best against a Beal City program that knows all about physical football and playing in November.
While the Crusaders boast 10 MHSAA titles in the playoff era, Beal City has the edge over MCC and every other team in the state with 33 playoff appearances. Farmington Hills Harrison is second with 32, followed by Crystal Falls Forest Park and Fowler with 31. Muskegon Catholic is eighth with 27 playoff appearances.
Beal City (9-1), which was ranked sixth in the final AP Division 8 poll with its only loss coming Week 5 against Evart, will seek to avenge a 35-12 loss to MCC in the 2013 Division 8 championship game at Ford Field in Detroit.
While the two schools are known for football success, their biggest rivalry in recent years has been on the baseball diamond. Beal City knocked off MCC in Division 4 Regional Finals in 2013 and 2014, with the Crusaders getting the upper hand this past spring.
On Saturday, the two schools will meet on the gridiron for a Division 8 District championship.
“We’ve gotten to know Beal City really well,” said Holt, an all-Lakes 8 Conference lineman the past two years. “It’s a chance for us to show how far we’ve come this year. We lost 18 seniors last year, so it hasn’t always been smooth, but I think we’re playing our best right now.”
Tom Kendra worked 23 years at The Muskegon Chronicle, including five as assistant sports editor and the final six as sports editor through 2011. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Muskegon, Oceana, Mason, Lake, Oceola, Mecosta and Newaygo counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Jacob Holt recovers a fumble during MCC's dramatic, come-from-behind, 29-26 victory over host Fruitport on Oct. 2. (Middle) Holt shows his athletic ability, leaping high and nearly blocking this punt in a 49-14 victory over visiting Fremont at Kehren Stadium. (Below) Mike Holt, a Muskegon Catholic Central teacher and middle school football coach, is flanked by his sons, junior Jacob (77) and senior Nicholas (3), after MCC defeated Munising last year for its second consecutive MHSAA Division 8 championship. (Photos by Tim Reilly.)