Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 9 in Review
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Week 9 of the football regular season brings with it a Twitter feed full of gems like these:
Enjoy perfection? Northville finished 9-0 for the first time since 1961. Portland did so for the first time since 1969. Birmingham Groves posted its first flawless regular-season finish since 1978. For Buchanan, it was the first since 1988.
How about streaks? Rockford continued a 20-season playoff streak, and Stevensville Lakeshore clinched 18 years in a row heading to the postseason. And of course there was at least one stat line worth a double take – like Pewamo-Westphalia running back Jared Smith finishing the regular season with 2,065 rushing yards and 38 touchdowns for the undefeated Pirates.
Those are just highlights. As we begin to focus on the first week of the playoffs, let's not forget the rest of the best from the final week of the regular season.
Bay & Thumb
Fenton 30, Linden 27 (OT)
Fenton upped its Flint Metro League winning streak to 29 straight games and its league title streak to five seasons either sharing the championship or winning it outright thanks to this victory over second-place Linden. The Tigers ended the regular season at 8-1 while Linden is 7-2; Fenton’s lone loss came on opening night to Davison by three points. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Freeland 42, Frankenmuth 7 – The Falcons (9-0) won the only matchup between undefeated teams in the state this weekend, but could see Frankenmuth (8-1) again in a Division 5 District Final.
Midland Dow 49, Midland 28 – The Chargers (8-1) won this crosstown rivalry game for the second straight season … and earned a rematch with the Chemics (7-2) in a Division 2 opener.
New Lothrop 41, Montrose 0 – The Hornets (9-0) completed their sixth straight undefeated regular season and in the process gave Montrose (5-4) a boost that helped the Rams into the playoffs as an at-large team.
Saginaw Swan Valley 28, Bay City John Glenn 21 – The Vikings (6-3) secured a fourth-straight playoff berth, but John Glenn (5-4) also made the postseason for a second straight season.
Greater Detroit
Detroit Martin Luther King 27, Detroit Cass Tech 25
It wouldn’t surprise many if both of these teams ended up back at Ford Field in five weeks playing for MHSAA titles in Division 2 and Division 1, respectively. This Detroit Public League Division I Final was their second matchup this season and both were decided by a field goal or less; King won the Sept. 25 meeting 31-28. The Crusaders (9-0) locked down Cass Tech’s passing game in this one, holding the Technicians (7-2) to their season low in points. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.
Also noted:
Orchard Lake St. Mary's 38, Warren DeLaSalle 0 – The Eaglets (7-1) look like strong favorites in Division 3 after defeating reigning Division 2 champ DeLaSalle (6-3) big in the Prep Bowl to avenge their only loss this season.
Utica Eisenhower 17, Romeo 14 – The Eagles (6-3) are one of the state’s hottest teams, beating opponents the last three weeks that are a combined 21-6 including handing Romeo (8-1) its only loss.
Detroit Collegiate Prep 26, Detroit Central Collegiate 12 – The Colts (9-0) won the PSL Division II title game to register their first perfect regular season in at least 65 years; Central Collegiate (6-3) is headed to the playoffs for the second straight season after going 0-9 in 2013.
West Bloomfield 20, Farmington Hills Harrison 14 – The Lakers (9-0) tied their school record for wins set last season with their first perfect regular season since going 8-0 in 1960; Harrison (7-2) is headed back to the playoffs for the ninth time in 10 seasons.
Mid-Michigan
Lansing Catholic 35, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 10
Reigning Division 6 champion Monroe St. Mary (8-1) has looked ready for another run since putting up 62 points on Tecumseh on opening night, but Lansing Catholic (8-1) reminded the rest of Michigan it’s one of the dangerous teams in Division 5 by going on the road and handing the Falcons their first regular-season loss since 2013. The Cougars rattled off 28 unanswered points during the second half. Click for more from MLive-Lansing.
Also noted:
Portland 25, Marshall 16 – The Raiders finished 9-0 for the first time since 1969, which was a lot easier said than done considering Marshall (7-2) was one of five playoff teams on the schedule.
Harrison 40, Clare 20 – The Hornets (7-2) locked down second place in the Jack Pine Conference with their first win over Clare since 2010, and in the process kept the Pioneers (5-4) out of the playoffs for the first time since 2005.
Grand Ledge 42, Holt 0 – The Comets (9-0) completed their outright Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title, finished their third perfect regular season over the last eight and in the process kept rival Holt (5-4) from making the playoffs (although the Rams did improve from 3-6 a year ago).
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 13, Mendon 7 – The Irish (6-3) ran off six straight wins after opening 0-3 against teams that finished a combined 25-2 to return to the playoffs for the eighth straight season; Mendon (5-4) also earned its ninth straight postseason bid despite the loss and after starting 1-3.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Harbor Springs 22, Charlevoix 20
The winner was guaranteed a playoff spot. And Harbor Springs had plenty to celebrate with its move to 6-3 earning both the first playoff berth since 2000 but also its first winning record in 16 years. Senior Mitch Hoffman drilled a last-second field goal to put his team over the top – and keep the Red Rayders out of the playoffs as they did not end up with enough playoff points to qualify as an at-large team despite finishing 5-4. Click for more from the Petoskey News.
Also noted:
Boyne City 35, Grayling 20 – Boyne City may have finished behind Traverse City St. Francis in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders standings, but beating third-place Grayling (6-3) helped the Vikings (8-1) secure up to two home playoff games – with St. Francis likely awaiting in the Regional Final.
Lake City 28, Newberry 21 – The Trojans made quite a bounce-back from last season’s 2-7 finish and beat two straight playoffs teams in Lincoln Alcona and Newberry (6-3) the last two weeks to get back to the playoffs at 5-4.
Oscoda 48, AuGres-Sims 22 – The Owls (6-3) also are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2000 after finishing the regular season with two straight wins.
Onekama 21, Frankfort 8 – Before last season, Onekama hadn’t beaten Frankfort since 1994; now, the Portagers (8-1) have won two straight over the Panthers (7-2) and could see them again in a Division 8 District Final.
Southeast & Border
Jackson 35, Jackson Lumen Christi 34 (OT)
This season just keeps getting better for Jackson. By moving to 7-2, the Vikings equaled their wins from 2010-2014 combined. And although they didn’t play most seasons in between, it’s worth noting this was Jackson’s first win over Lumen Christi since 1988 – and after 27, 29 and 34-point defeats to the Titans (6-3) the last three years. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.
Also noted:
Grass Lake 19, Union City 16 – The Warriors (5-4) survived a three-game losing streak midseason to earn an at-large playoff bid, and with this win knocked Union City (4-5) out of the running.
Clinton 36, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 18 – The Redskins (9-0) finished their fourth straight perfect regular season and fourth straight Tri-County Conference title by beating Whiteford (7-2), one of three other playoff teams from the league.
Manchester 45, Homer 38 – The Flying Dutchmen (8-1) claimed this meeting of first-place teams in the Cascades and Big 8 conferences for the second straight season, putting up a season high points total while also giving up their most this season to Homer (7-2).
Parma Western 28, Dexter 0 – After missing by a win twice over the last six seasons, Western (6-3) finally has its first MHSAA playoff berth thanks to two straight victories to close the regular season.
Southwest Corridor
Benton Harbor 29, Portage Northern 23 (OT)
Benton Harbor is one of the best stories of this season. The Tigers (5-4) didn’t win a game in 2013 or 2014 and went a combined 4-68 over the last eight seasons, but with a new coach and new athletic director posted their first winning season since 1989 – and earned their first playoff berth ever. It took this overtime win over Portage Northern (4-5), which hadn’t lost to Benton Harbor since 1996. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Also noted:
Dowagiac 49, Paw Paw 46 – The Chieftains (6-3) reversed their record of a year ago but needed a second straight win by three points or fewer to return to the playoffs.
Constantine 21, Hartford 6 – The Falcons kept their playoff streak alive for a 17th straight season by bouncing back from a Week 8 loss to finish 5-4; Hartford also made the playoffs at 5-4.
St. Joseph 22, Portage Central 6 – The Bears (8-1) gained a share of the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference East title by breaking a three-year losing streak against the Mustangs (8-1).
Schoolcraft 41, Delton Kellogg 15 – The Eagles (9-0) finished a perfect regular season for the second time in four and won all but one of their games by at least 18 points; Delton (5-4) still made the playoffs for the first time since 2001 with its first winning record since 2009.
Upper Peninsula
Escanaba 18, Kingsford 14
Escanaba was riding high this fall after opening with two wins under a new coach. Then came four straight losses against a string of opponents that ended up including three playoff teams. But the Eskymos (5-4) didn’t fold, instead finishing with three wins including two over playoff teams to earn their first postseason berth since 2011. Kingsford (6-3) ended up with a home game this week despite the loss. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Also noted:
St. Ignace 14, Fowler 7 – The Saints (8-1) deserve a lot of credit for stacking their nonleague schedule with undefeated Ishpeming last week and annual Division 8 power Fowler (6-3).
Negaunee 35, Ishepming Westwood 0 – Westwood (5-4) claimed a playoff spot for a second straight season despite the loss, but Negaunee (7-2) hopes it regained some momentum after two straight defeats by a combined seven points.
Munising 41, L'Anse 8 – The reigning Division 8 runner-up Mustangs (7-2) bounced back from a Week 8 loss by ending the playoff hopes for L’Anse (5-4).
Lake Linden-Hubbell 34, Crystal Falls Forest Park 28 – The Lakes (9-0) broke a five-game losing streak against Forest Park (5-3) to finish perfect for the regular season for the first time since 2009 … and earn a rematch with Forest Park this week.
West Michigan
Rockford 28, Hudsonville 27
At stake Friday was a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title – four teams were tied for first place, guaranteeing multiple champions. But also at stake was Rockford’s 20-season playoff streak, the longest-running in Michigan and third-longest in MHSAA history. A blocked extra point by a back-up quarterback and a pair of field goals by the back-up kicker were among contributions that paid off nicely for the Rams (6-3), who could see Hudsonville (6-3) again in a Division 1 District Final. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Grandville 18, East Kentwood 8 – This decided the other half of the O-K Red title, with the Bulldogs (6-3) not only earning a share but posting a sixth win for the first time since 2006; East Kentwood also is 6-3 and gets also third-place Hudsonville in the playoffs.
Lowell 28, Grand Rapids Christian 14 – The Red Arrows (8-1) finished a perfect run in the O-K White for the second time in three seasons and won their fourth straight against the Eagles (5-4).
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 26, Ada Forest Hills Eastern 24 – The Huskies (7-2) fell shy in the O-K Bronze after a 5-0 start, but forcing rival Forest Hills Eastern (8-1) to share the title probably lessened any lingering disappointment.
Big Rapids 20, Morley-Stanwood 10 – After seasons of three and one win over the last two, Big Rapids is back in the playoffs thanks to two straight wins, this one over a Mohawks team also 6-3.
8-Player
Battle Creek St. Philip 47, Lawrence 44
St. Philip (9-0) got the better of Lawrence for the first time in their last four meetings, handing those Tigers (7-2) their first in-state loss since 2013 and cementing the top spot overall in the 8-player tournament with the highest final playoff-point average. The two could meet again in a Regional Final next week. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Also noted:
Pickford 62, Onaway 28 – It was this simple: Pickford (6-3) won and got into the playoffs, and Onaway (5-4) fell out of the top 16 with the loss.
Morrice 58, Portland St. Patrick 42 – The Orioles (8-1) still aren't getting much mention as a contender, but they haven’t lost since falling to St. Philip on opening night and clinched the Central Michigan 8-Man League title with this win over the Shamrocks (6-3).
PHOTO: A Detroit Martin Luther King ball-carrier follows his blocker during the Crusaders' Detroit Public School League Division I championship win. (Photo courtesy of the Detroit Public School League.)