Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 8 in Review
October 19, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
One point can mean one win and change an entire season. More than a few teams are feeling that impact after a nail-biting Week 8.
Michigan high school teams played nine one-point games last week. And those games resulted in the naming of two league champions, two more teams not winning a share of league titles, two teams earning playoff spots and three more keeping playoff hopes alive, and two more seeing their playoff hopes dashed.
See more on most of those games in this week's report below.
Bay & Thumb
Richmond 15, Algonac 14
This still has been a dream season for Algonac (7-1) – but the Muskrats were forced to share some of it with perennial power Richmond (7-1) after the Blue Devils held them scoreless over the second half of their Blue Water Area Conference title-deciding contest. Richmond gets a share of the title – its second in three seasons – with its lone league loss by one to Almont. Algonac’s share was its first league title since 1972 and came after a 1-8 finish only a year ago. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.
Also noted:
Montrose 7, Flint Beecher 6 – For the first time in a long time, this didn’t have Genesee Area Conference Red title implications for both, but Montrose (5-3) needed a win to stay alive for an automatic playoff berth and in the process kept Beecher (5-2) from claiming a share of the title.
New Lothrop 49, Flint Hamady 0 – Hamady (6-2) had a chance to make the GAC Blue title also a three-team share, but New Lothrop (8-0) held on for the outright championship for the sixth straight season.
Croswell-Lexington 28, Almont 27 – Back to the BWAC, Croswell-Lexington (6-2) earned a playoff berth for the first time since 2012 with its first win over Almont (6-2) since that fall.
Birch Run 21, Essexville Garber 15 – The Panthers (5-3) stayed alive for a second straight playoff berth, while Garber (4-4) will need a win and good fortune to extend a three-year postseason streak.
Greater Detroit
Macomb Dakota 35, Sterling Heights Stevenson 28 (OT)
A wild Macomb Area Conference Red race finally is sorted out, with Dakota (6-2) – which suffered its only league loss all the way back in Week 3 – emerging as champion for the fourth straight season. Stevenson (6-2), Clinton Township Chippewa Valley and Utica Eisenhower all finished a game back and Warren Mott was two win out – and Eisenhower and Mott can join the other three with automatic playoff berths if they win this week. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.
Also noted:
Harper Woods Chandler Park 28, Warren Michigan Collegiate 18 – Chandler Park (6-2) has put together a pair of streaks that remain under the radar; the Eagles have made the playoffs all seven seasons they’ve played a full schedule, and this win over Michigan Collegiate (5-3) made them 40-0 in Charter School Conference play all-time.
Madison Heights Madison 56, St. Clair Shores South Lake 42 – Madison (7-1) won its 19th straight MAC Silver game and fourth straight league title while handing South Lake (7-1) its first loss this fall – which is still one to celebrate after South Lake's 2-7 finish in 2014.
Waterford Our Lady 36, Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood 10 – The Detroit Catholic League C-D title came down to two undefeated teams, but Our Lady (8-0) emerged with its third straight championship although the Cranes are still enjoying their best season since at least 2005.
Warren Cousino 35, Grosse Pointe North 34 – Another one-pointer meant a shared MAC Blue title between these two after Cousino (5-3) beat North (4-4) by three last season to claim the championship outright.
Mid-Michigan
Pewamo-Westphalia 34, Fowler 7
The 50th game between these rivals extended a pattern of the teams trading victories to seven seasons. The Pirates (8-0) also kept a streak alive of giving up no more than seven points, which they've done seven straight weeks after giving up 25 in a win over Madison Heights Madison on opening night. Most importantly, P-W linched an outright Central Michigan Athletic Conference title. Fowler, last season’s champion, finished third but remains playoff-ready at 6-2. Click for more from the Ionia Sentinel-Standard.
Also noted:
Grand Ledge 31, East Lansing 21 – The Trojans (4-4) put a scare into Grand Ledge (8-0) nearly to the end, but the Comets emerged with a share of the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title and a chance to win it outright this week against second-place Holt.
Fowlerville 24, Lake Odessa Lakewood 21 – Not only did the Gladiators (4-4) hand Lakewood (7-1) its first loss this fall, they stayed in the running for an at-large playoff bid that would return them to the postseason for the first time since 2010.
Lansing Everett 33, Lansing Sexton 32 – With nothing to play for but city pride, these two enjoyed another nail-biting classic, with Everett (3-5) breaking a two-season winning streak by the Big Reds (1-7) – who lost their fifth game by a touchdown or less and third by a point.
Haslett 28, Williamston 7 – The Vikings (5-3) remain alive for an automatic playoff berth after missing last season, and Williamston (4-4) might have a shot at an at-large bid with a win this week over Lake Fenton.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Frankfort 20, Charlevoix 0
Frankfort clinched its first league title since 2008 and avenged Charlevoix’s win in this matchup a year ago. By moving to 7-1, the Panthers also guaranteed their best finish since at least 2011 and like Fowler, kept alive a streak of giving up no more than seven points in a game since opening night. In fact, the Panthers have given up only 42 all fall. Charlevoix (5-3) still can clinch a playoff spot this week against Harbor Springs. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Traverse City West 35, Gaylord 14 – After an 0-4 start, the Titans (4-4) have stormed back and have a chance at an at-large bid with their best win yet over solid Gaylord (5-3).
Lake City 41, Lincoln Alcona 34 – The Trojans (4-4) got a giant boost to their at-large hopes by downing a Tigers team that is 5-3 and could clinch an automatic berth this week.
Kingsley 27, Maple City Glen Lake 6 – The Stags (5-3) still face undefeated Traverse City St. Francis, but put themselves in position to earn an automatic bid or make a play for an at-large invitation by downing Glen Lake (4-4).
Whittemore-Prescott 38, Hillman 14 – The North Star Big Dipper champion Cardinals (5-3) won this battle of league title winners by downing Little Dipper champ Hillman (6-2).
Southeast & Border
Manchester 29, Vandercook Lake 7
The Dutchmen (7-1) claimed the Cascades Conference championship outright by slowing a team that had scored at least 27 points in every game and averaged 41 points per heading into the contest. The title was Manchester’s fourth straight. Vandercook Lake (7-1) is still enjoying its best season since 1996. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.
Also noted:
Jackson 63, Holt 41 – The Vikings (6-2), 1-8 a year ago, clinched their first playoff berth of the coach Scott Farley era and first at all since 2009 by downing similar playoff hopeful Holt (5-3).
Chelsea 9, Ann Arbor Pioneer 7 – The Bulldogs (7-1) showed again they’ll be dangerous in the playoffs by dealing a close loss to much larger Ann Arbor Pioneer (6-2).
Ida 20, Hillsdale 17 (OT) – The Bluestreaks (8-0) made sure they were at least partial Lenawee County Athletic Association champions, earning a share of the league title with Hillsdale (5-3) attempting to create a three-way tie at the top.
Homer 40, Union City 34 – The Trojans (7-1) already had claimed a share of the Big 8 Conference title, but reigning champ Union City (4-4) didn’t let the outright championship come easily.
Southwest Corridor
Buchanan 21, Berrien Springs 19
The renewing of this rivalry played out as competitively as one would expect from a pair of undefeated teams contending for a league title. After a three-season break, the pair met for the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference White championship – and Buchanan (8-0) earned it in part by blocking an extra-point try and stopping a two-point conversion attempt. The Bucks this week will play for their first perfect regular season since 1988, while Berrien Springs (7-1) still is headed for its best regular-season finish since 2005. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.
Also noted:
Kalamazoo Central 33, Benton Harbor 18 – The Maroon Giants (3-5) made playoff hopes much dimmer for Benton Harbor (4-4), but also gave themselves a chance at their best record since 2011.
Bridgman 34, Niles Brandywine 26 – The Bees (7-1) clinched the BCS Blue title for the second straight season and after two straight losses to Brandywine (5-3).
Dowagiac 36, Otsego 34 – The Chiefs (5-3) moved a win closer to returning to the playoffs after missing last season at 3-6.
St. Joseph 45, Battle Creek Lakeview 21 – The Bears (7-1) have secured a playoff berth after missing last season, but Lakeview (5-3) must win this week to do the same despite claiming a share of its league title.
Upper Peninsula
Ishpeming 20, St. Ignace 14
This meeting of league champions was another that met expectations, with Mid-Peninsula Athletic Conference champion Ishpeming (7-0) winning its 26th straight regular-season game and handing Ski Valley champ St. Ignace (7-1) its first regular season loss after 16 straight wins. Ishpeming held the Saints to their season-low points but scored their second fewest of the fall. Click for more from the Sault Ste. Marie Evening News.
Also noted:
Crystal Falls Forest Park 34, Munising 8 – The Trojans (5-2) are making what might be their final season of 11-player football count, this time downing reigning Division 8 runner-up Munising (6-2) to qualify for the playoffs and clinch a share of the Mid-Eastern Football Conference title.
Escanaba 34, Sault Ste. Marie 8 – An upset of the Blue Devils (5-3) gave the Eskymos (4-4) their most wins since 2012 and the chance to play for an at-large playoff bid.
Iron Mountain 28, Hurley, Wis. 13 – The Mountaineers (5-3) look much better to earn a playoff spot this week against two-win Norway after doubling up always-tough Hurley (7-2).
Menominee 40, DeWitt 35 – The Maroons’ 30-game regular-season winning streak has included its share of impressive victories, but moving to 8-0 against an undefeated DeWitt team (7-1) loaded with speed should put additional fear into potential playoff opponents.
West Michigan
Muskegon Mona Shores 21, Muskegon 18
Statewide eyes turned toward this matchup of Muskegon rivals, and roughly 10,000 fans saw Mona Shores jump out to a 21-3 lead before withstanding a late Big Reds charge. Mona Shores moved to 8-0 for the first time in program history with its second straight win over Muskegon (6-2), which suffered its second three-point loss of the season. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
Ada Forest Hills Eastern 49, Cedar Springs 12 – The Hawks (8-0) guaranteed themselves a share of the O-K Bronze title and also set a program record for wins while forcing Cedar Springs (5-3) into a must-win position this week.
Grandville 38, Hudsonville 13 – The Bulldogs (5-3) turned the O-K Red into the best league race left by handing Hudsonville (6-2) its first league loss and creating a four-way tie at the top with one game to play and a guarantee of two champions.
Lowell 35, East Grand Rapids 13 – The Red Arrows (7-1) earned a share of a third straight league title in one of the state’s most competitive, while putting East Grand Rapids (5-3) in a must-win spot as well.
Montague 36, Muskegon Oakridge 29 (OT) – The West Michigan Conference title came down to overtime before Montague (8-0) prevailed over the reigning champion Eagles (6-2).
Reed City 26, Remus Chippewa Hills 7 – The Coyotes (8-0) claimed their fifth straight league title by downing second-place Chippewa Hills (6-2) to win the Central State Activities Association Gold.
8-Player
Onaway 62, Bellaire 14
Onaway pushed into the 16th spot with a week to play as it pursues its first playoff berth since 2012 in its first season of 8-player football. The Cardinals (5-3) must play another 5-3 team, Pickford, this week to try to hold on to the final spot in the field. Bellaire (4-4) has fallen in two straight as its pursued making the playoffs for the sixth straight season.
Also noted:
Deckerville 50, Peck 6 – The battle for the North Central Thumb 8-Man title didn’t turn into much of one, with Deckerville (7-1) breaking a three-game losing streak to the Pirates (6-2).
Powers North Central 82, Rapid River 20 – The Jets (8-0) gave up their most points this season, but also tied their highest output on offense while downing the Rockets (5-3).
Engadine 58, Stephenson 42 – This might have been the best game of the week in 8-player, featuring two teams that have taken great strides but with Engadine (6-2) striding just a little bit farther than Stephenson (5-3) at this point.
PHOTO: Muskegon Mona Shores welcomed a reported 10,000 fans for Friday's 21-18 victory over rival Muskegon.