Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Millington Caps 1st Finals Trip with Decisive 'Forever' Championship

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

November 30, 2024

DETROIT – Dallas Walsh and his Millington teammates achieved a childhood dream Saturday at the Division 7 Football Final.

But for the sea of red in the Ford Field stands, and the few left watching at home, it was the fulfillment of a dream that started decades before the current Cardinals had taken a single snap.

A suffocating defense combined with a big day on the ground from Walsh gave the Cardinals a 24-0 victory against Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, bringing a first Finals trophy home to Millington.

“It’s definitely an amazing feeling,” Walsh said. “I’ve been playing with these guys since I was probably 8 years old. This is something we’ve all dreamt of, and it’s really an amazing experience. Our whole community backed us the whole way. I’m just so glad that we came out with the win.”

The Cardinals were making the first Finals appearance in program history, as they were 0-6 in Semifinal appearances prior to this season. 

That just made getting over the hump that much more special.

The Cardinals’ Brevin Hendricks (11) chases SMCC quarterback Ian Foster in the backfield. “It means the world to us,” Millington coach Jason Germain said. “We were 0-6 going into the Semifinals, and we heard about that. These kids knew that. They fulfilled my dreams, and they fulfilled a lot of people in the community’s dreams. If you couldn’t tell, you’d think that was a Division 1 game out there with that many people in the crowd. It is truly, in small towns like Millington and Frankenmuth, that’s what we cling to. We don’t have a lot in our community, but we have our Friday nights and we have our football program. That’s what it really, truly means. We told our guys, pain is temporary, championships are forever, and that’s what they really bought into. And it’s a true testament to our community. I’m telling you, it’s going to be a good night in Millington tonight.”

That fun night will no doubt include tales of a monstrous defensive effort from the Cardinals, which included three forced turnovers and allowing just 3.2 yards per play.

SMCC came into Saturday’s Final averaging 36.3 points and 240.5 rushing yards per game, but wasn’t able to get anything going against a stout Millington front. The Falcons were held to 131 yards of total offense and 68 yards on the ground.

“They did to us what we’ve been doing to teams for 13 games, so I think that’s a testament to them,” SMCC coach Adam Kipf said. “... They brought it on every single play. I don’t think they lost any energy throughout the game, and they were physical. We’d seen that on tape. We figured they’d wear down a little bit, and they did not wear down.”

The Cardinals held SMCC to 2.3 yards per carry, and when quarterback Ian Jones did drop back to pass, he was often greeted with a defender in his face. Millington finished the game with four sacks, getting two apiece from Logan Myers and Brevin Hendricks, which resulted in 34 lost yards for the Falcons.

The Cardinals also forced three interceptions, with Truk Terbush picking off two and Owen Kreger snagging the other.

“We shut out (Pewamo-Westphalia); they’re a prolific offense. We held North Muskegon to 14 until the end of the game – our defense is outstanding, and that’s a credit to our defensive coordinator (Lenny Dantinne) and these guys buying in,” Germain said. “I can’t say enough about these guys and Coach Dantinne and all of our coaches for preparing these guys. You don’t just shut out a team like Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central unless you’re doing film study and working hard.”

Offensively, Walsh, who had a team-high eight tackles, rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown, while Landon Russell had 67 yards on two carries, including a 64-yard TD run. Terbush finished 7-of-12 for 58 yards and a touchdown, and one interception.

Millington coach Jason Germain holds up the championship trophy as he’s embraced by one of his players. Millington (13-0) had a significant field position advantage through most of the first half, and it was finally able to cash in on that late in the second quarter when Walsh opened the scoring with a 21-yard touchdown run.

The Cardinals put themselves right back into a dangerous position on the next play from scrimmage when Terbush intercepted a pass near midfield and returned it to the SMCC 15. The Falcons defense limited the damage, but Millington took a 10-0 lead with a 25-yard Larry Shoens field goal.

SMCC (13-1) was able to create a chance during the final seconds of the half, as Cole Reinhardt returned the ensuing kick 44 yards into Millington territory. But Kreger intercepted a pass in the endzone as time expired to preserve the Cardinals’ 10-point halftime lead.

That would have been enough, thanks to the outstanding effort of the Millington defense, but Landon Russell added a 64-yard TD run late in the third quarter on what was by far the game’s most explosive play. Russell’s run covered more ground than the SMCC offense had been able to gain up until that point (50 yards).

It’s a play that was supposed to go to Walsh, but he made the decision to switch with Russell after it was called.

“It was really, I told (Russell) I needed a breather, so I said, ‘Go get one,’” Walsh said.

That run capped a 95-yard drive for the Cardinals, as they started at their own 5-yard line, and opened the possession with a false start to fall back to the 2½. 

“That was the turning point in the game for us,” Germain said. “They could have stopped us there, but our kids persevered and we just went old school football – flanker, double tight, and we just pounded the ball and scored on that. That was the huge part of the game for me, personally.”

The Cardinals tacked on a 13-yard touchdown pass from Terbush to Brevin Hendrick with 5:21 remaining in the fourth quarter.

SMCC was led by Lucas Linzell’s 12 tackles, while Brady Hines had eight, including 2.5 for loss. Jack Starner had one sack for the Falcons, and Drew Ferreira had an interception.

“I’m proud of our kids,” Kipf said. “They fought and they battled. I couldn’t be more proud of them.”

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS (Top) Millington’s Dallas Walsh (5) busts into a wide opening during Saturday’s Division 7 Final at Ford Field. (Middle) The Cardinals’ Brevin Hendricks (11) chases SMCC quarterback Ian Foster in the backfield. (Below) Millington coach Jason Germain holds up the championship trophy as he’s embraced by one of his players. (Photos by Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)