Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

• Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

• Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

• Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

• Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

• Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

Drive for Detroit: Week 5 Preview

September 21, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Big things are ahead in Michigan high school football.

Not much will be decided this week as we cruise into the midpoint of the regular season. But teams all over Michigan are setting the foundations to celebrate soon – either as league champions or playoff qualifiers (and AuGres-Sims, 4-0 and playing eight games this season, can become our first this weekend).

Below is our weekly look at the games that appear most intriguing from every region of the state, powered by MI Student Aid. Keep these links handy for the weekend: MHSAA Score Center for scores as they come in (and links to each team’s schedule, league standings and playoff-points average), and MHSAA.tv, which again will broadcast nine games this weekend – click here for the schedule.

Bay & Thumb

New Lothrop (4-0) at Flint Hamady (3-1), Friday

The Genesee Area Conference Blue was decided last season by New Lothrop’s 51-16 Week 4 win over Hamady, and this matchup could be the eventual clincher again. The Hornets have now won 65 of their last 66 regular-season games going back to the start of 2010, and they haven’t given up a point this fall since downing GAC Red leader Lake Fenton in Week 1. But Hamady has held its last three opponents to single-digit scoring since losing to still-undefeated Cass City on opening night, signaling this might be closer than last year’s meeting.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Byron (3-1) at Lake Fenton (3-1), Midland (3-1) at Bay City Central (3-1), Flint Beecher (2-2) at Saginaw Nouvel (4-0), Harbor Beach (3-1) at Sandusky (2-2).

Greater Detroit

Birmingham Groves (3-1) at Farmington Hills Harrison (3-1), Friday

After falling to Oakland Activities Association White co-leader Oak Park last week, Groves has one more chance to mix up the top of the standings as it hopes to repeat as the league champion – this time likely sharing the title. Harrison is the other team currently in first, and longtime coach John Herrington is just two wins from tying retired Birmingham Brother Rice coach Al Fracassa for most wins (430) in MHSAA football history. A victory tonight for the Hawks could make Week 7 versus Oak Park the first opportunity for Herrington to break the record.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Utica Eisenhower (4-0) at Romeo (3-1), Clinton Township Clintondale (4-0) at Hazel Park (3-1), Marine City (4-0) at Madison Heights Madison (4-0), West Bloomfield (2-2) at Rochester Adams (4-0).

Mid-Michigan

Portland (3-1) at Lansing Catholic (4-0), Friday

The Cougars kept this rivalry game as a potential league title decider by surviving a one-point game against Williamston last week. Portland won the last two Capital Area Activities Conference White titles after handing Lansing Catholic its lone league loss both seasons. Both teams are led by dynamic quarterbacks again – Michael Lynn III for Lansing Catholic and Austin Allison for Portland – and both also are giving up only 15 points per game.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Okemos (4-0) at Grand Ledge (3-1), Montrose (3-1) at Corunna (3-1), Clare (3-1) at Harrison (3-1), Fulton (3-1) at Pewamo-Westphalia (3-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Grayling (4-0) at Boyne City (4-0), Friday

The Northern Michigan Football League’s Legends division is again loaded, with three undefeated teams and two more at 3-1 out of seven teams total. This matchup should help break up some of the top pack. These two and two-time reigning champion Traverse City St. Francis are the co-leaders, after St. Francis downed Boyne City in Week 9 last year to secure the title. Grayling’s last league title came in 2013 in the old Lake Michigan Conference and Boyne won the Legends in 2014 – making it hardly surprising they’re among those battling the Gladiators again. Grayling gets St. Francis next week; Boyne City has its shot in Week 9.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Frankfort (3-1) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (3-1), Beal City (3-1) at Lake City (4-0), Whittemore-Prescott (2-2) at Lincoln Alcona (3-1), SATURDAY Gaylord (2-2) at Traverse City Central (2-2).

Southeast & Border

Michigan Center (3-1) at Addison (4-0), Friday

Addison’s best start since 2006 has made the Cascades Conference race one of the most intriguing of the first half of the regular season. Last season’s co-champions, Grass Lake and Napoleon, remain in the mix, but Addison’s two-point win over Napoleon last week put the Panthers in first place alone. After six straight sub-.500 seasons, Addison is a win from breaking that streak. Michigan Center, meanwhile, is one of three teams tied for second in the league and only a three-point loss to Napoleon in Week 3 from being tied for first.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Adrian (3-1) at Chelsea (3-1), Quincy (3-1) at Reading (3-1), Homer (3-1) at Springport (2-2), SATURDAY Temperance Bedford (3-1) at Ann Arbor Pioneer (2-2).

Southwest Corridor

Kalamazoo Hackett (4-0) at Watervliet (4-0), Friday

The Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley is another league that has enjoyed a great nonconference run – five teams are 3-1 or 4-0, and the sixth is 2-2. Watervliet has won or shared its league’s championship six straight seasons and is on pace to break 500 points offensively for the third straight year. Hackett’s path has been different – the four wins this fall tie their most in nine of the last 10 seasons. But the Fighting Irish clearly are up to the challenge this year – and both will have to be up to the challenges of Constantine, Coloma, Delton Kellogg and new league foe Schoolcraft over the next five weeks.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY White Pigeon (3-1) at Mendon (4-0), Athens (4-0) at Climax-Scotts (3-1), St. Joseph (3-1) at Mattawan (3-1), Three Rivers (3-1) at Paw Paw (3-1).

Upper Peninsula

Bark River-Harris (3-1) at Norway (4-0), Friday

The Mid-Eastern Conference continues to produce some of the U.P.’s top matchups every week, and this one again could go far in figuring out the eventual champion. Norway is the only one of five teams that hasn’t played a league game; it’s also the only one undefeated and has the highest playoff-point average of the five. Bark River-Harris’ loss came to current M-EC leader Newberry; the Broncos interestingly have wins over teams from multiple states – Wisconsin and Illinois – a rarity on either peninsula.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Hancock (3-1) at Calumet (3-1), Gladstone (4-0) at Ishpeming (2-2), Negaunee (1-3) at Gwinn (2-2), Newberry (3-1) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (0-3).

West Michigan

Grandville (3-1) at East Kentwood (4-0), Friday

The Ottawa-Kent Conference Red easily could be headed for another split title – three teams shared last year, two in 2015 and 2014. And there appear to be four contenders again – these two obviously included. Grandville was one of those three champs a year ago, and minus a painful defeat to Warren DeLaSalle has given up only 27 points over its three wins. The Falcons have been nearly as stellar on that side of the ball, shutting out reigning Division 3 champion Orchard Lake St. Mary’s in Week 2 and despite giving up 32 last week to Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (which is averaging 30 per game).

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Cedar Springs (3-1) at Grand Rapids Christian (4-0), Coopersvile (3-1) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (3-1), Grant (3-1) at Remus Chippewa Hills (3-1), Montague (4-0) at Whitehall (3-1).

8-Player

Morrice (4-0) at Flint International Academy (4-0), Friday

Similar to last season, no one has slowed down Deckerville yet. But the winner of this game will have the most meaningful chance. All three are 3-0 in the North Central Thumb League Stars division, Morrice bouncing back from a 4-5 finish last season and Flint International picking right back up after going 6-3 in its first season of 8-player football in 2016. The Flames already have put up 190 points, more than half their total over nine games a year ago. They’ll face a great challenge in a Morrice defense that is giving up 4.5 points per game – a rarity in this high-scoring, wide-open format.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Rudyard (3-1) at Brimley (3-1), North Adams-Jerome (2-2) at Camden-Frontier (4-0), Lawrence (3-1) at Kingston (2-2), Onekama (4-0) at Suttons Bay (3-1).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid. 

PHOTO: Bark River-Harris, right, will take on Norway in this weekend’s most intriguing game in the Upper Peninsula. (Photo by Jeff Rochefort.)