Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '17

October 22, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Special for Second Half

We haven’t had Michigan high school football teams travel by boat to their playoff games, nor fly like the birds over places like Saginaw Bay and the northern stretch of Lake Michigan.

But phrases like “use the lake” and “follow the highway” dominated this year’s playoff mapping process, which once again saw members of the MHSAA staff and representatives of the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association draw into Districts and Regionals nearly 300 dots for our 10-division tournament that kicks off this weekend.

At the end of Saturday – around 9:48 p.m., to be nearly exact – there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 256-team 11-player tournament, plus 32 for 8-player. By midnight, we had our entire playoff field more or less figured. Sunday at the MHSAA started before sunrise with double, triple and quadruple-checking, before a committee of 12 met to draw the tournament, go over all of each other’s work again, and then get everything ready to be presented online at MHSAA.com and broadcast across the state Sunday night on FOX Sports Detroit.

So much more than that goes into the football playoffs, of course. Athletic directors are scheduling games years in advance, and we start loading schedules into our system in late April. We monitor every game played every week by 614 Michigan varsity teams, plus this season 48 of our schools’ non-Michigan opponents located in five states and Ontario. Now we’re on to lining up everything that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal hosts and continuing our work with Northern Michigan University and Ford Field’s staffs to prepare for the 8 and 11-player Finals.

But we’re also the first to say that all of that is background noise to what we all look forward to most – five weeks of the best games our state has to offer again this fall.

As we’ve done the past six seasons, we’re explaining below our most difficult decisions in placing 288 playoff qualifiers in this Mapnalysis 2017 breakdown. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2017.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season. This fall, a second division of 8-player football was introduced, and we will celebrate 10 champions for the first time.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 33 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those five we added 10 teams from Class A and nine each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus this year two representatives from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is similar but changed this fall with the additional division. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2017

Let’s start with Congratulations: First to Detroit Western and St. Louis, which qualified for the MHSAA Playoffs for the first time. Then to seven more headed back for the first time in a while: Athens (first berth since 2000), Bridgeport (1999), Flat Rock (1990), Hancock (2006), Royal Oak (2006), Salem (1991) and Vermontville Maple Valley (2005). A total of 21 programs added to totals of more than 25 playoff berths, led by Beal City now with 35, Crystal Falls Forest Park and Farmington Hills Harrison with 33, Mendon with 32, Traverse City St. Francis with 31 and Frankfort with 30. Rockford earned its 23rd straight playoff berth, tying the record set by Felch North Dickinson from 1991-2013, and Menominee earned its 22nd straight to tie Traverse City St. Francis (1990-2011) for third on the list. Of our current 614 football varsities, all but 16 have made the playoffs at least once.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Cedarville will host Rudyard in an 8-player Division 1 game this week although both teams finished with the same playoff point average – Cedarville broke the tie with its 46-28 win over the Bulldogs in Week 1, which is a good thing because their opponents had matching 38-43 records this fall. 

Many ways, no great way to slice it: The map in 11-player Division 2 was among our first tough challenges Sunday. Our most northern District seemed to make sense right away – keeping Traverse City West and Traverse City Central together with Midland and Midland Dow. From there, it’s not a pretty picture. We looked at three ways of splitting up the Detroit-area schools. We have five teams on the Grand Rapids/Muskegon/Kalamazoo side of the Lower Peninsula, but Lowell being eastern-most got sent to a District with three Flint-area schools. The 11-player Division 3 map provided a similar quandary – DeWitt, East Lansing and Haslett are packed nicely just north of Lansing, but an uneven seven schools on the western side of the Lower Peninsula meant DeWitt getting grouped with three closer to Grand Rapids with East Lansing and Haslett heading south to join Parma Western and Tecumseh. Bay City Central is the lone qualifier in this division from the Bay City/Saginaw/Midland area and also had to go somewhere – and in this case it made more sense to send it south along I-75 then across to Grand Rapids.

It’s a highway thing: In both Division 4 and Division 6 of 11-player, we have one Upper Peninsula school joining the rest from downstate. In Calumet’s case in Division 6, there are opponents in the northern Lower Peninsula to slot against, but Escanaba in Division 4 left us again relying on I-75. The trip from Escanaba to Flint Powers Catholic – the southernmost team in that four-team District – seems like a longer haul than sending Escanaba instead southwest to Whitehall. But a trip to Powers is estimated to be an hour shorter than from Escanaba to Whitehall, again because of the main highway.

Use the lake: At least three of our 11-player divisions – 1, 2 and 5 – have a District that rides close to the southeastern region of the Lower Peninsula up from Macomb County into Port Huron. While those thin Districts seem a little odd in shape, they make sense by normal traffic flow up from Lake St. Clair toward the Lake Huron coast. That helps explain why Port Huron Northern is with Roseville, Warren DeLaSalle and Ferndale instead of taking Lowell’s spot with Fenton, Flushing and Flint Carman-Ainsworth.

Worst map ever: At least in my seven years of being a part of the process. I’m speaking of the 11-player map in Division 8, which saw us with six Upper Peninsula schools, but then three Lower Peninsula schools grouped together just below Mackinac Bridge. One of these three had to go with another group, which is how we ended up with Frankfort joining Munising, Newberry and Gaylord St. Mary (Johannesburg-Lewiston and Hillman ended up with AuGres-Sims and Lincoln Alcona.). Then there are the pair of triangles in the southwest Lower Peninsula with Muskegon Catholic Central and Fulton-Middleton a good deal north of their District opponents, but with no other way to group those teams since the other six are all along I-94 or just south. It’s not pretty, but splitting MCC and Fulton up and sending them south was the best of the options we developed.

At the end of the day …

So here’s the fun part. We draw the maps without knowing who is where – and then we take a look at the matchups as they’re being prepared for TV and online.

It’s hard to pick out only a handful to mention at this time, but here’s one guess at a few that will create a buzz this week:

• In Division 1, Holland West Ottawa hosts Grandville after beating the Bulldogs 34-18 in Week 9 to earn an outright Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title; a Grandville win would’ve given championship shares to both and Rockford.

• Also in Division 1, Bloomfield Hills travels to West Bloomfield after beating the Lakers 28-24 in Week 2; West Bloomfield hasn’t lost again.

• In Division 3, Zeeland West and Zeeland East face off again after East downed West 28-8 on Friday to win the O-K Green championship.

• Also in Division 3, DeWitt hosts Grand Rapids Christian after rattling off eight straight wins – the Panthers’ only loss was to Christian 38-30 on opening night.

• Rivals Wyoming Kelloggsville and Godwin Heights meet in Division 4 after Kelloggsville beat Godwin by a point in Week 6 on the way to winning the O-K Silver title. Three Rivers and Vicksburg also will meet for the second straight week, this time in a Division 4 game; Vicksburg beat Three Rivers on Friday to deny the Wildcats a share of the Wolverine B Conference title. Harbor Beach claimed the Greater Thumb Conference East title by downing Ubly 26-14 in the league finale in Week 8, and they’ll meet again this week in Division 8.

• The best rivalry in 8-player last year was Powers North Central versus Crystal Falls Forest Park, and they’ll meet to start this postseason with the reigning champion Jets hitting the road looking to avenge a 66-58 loss to the Trojans in Week 2.

We know every game over the next five weeks will be memorable, at least for those on the field and the communities cheering them on. With our maps drawn, we look forward watching championship roads get blazed – and we’ll be waiting where they end at NMU and Ford Field.  

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 4 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula shows how I-75 served as a guide for putting Escanaba in a District that includes Flint Powers Catholic.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Preview

November 14, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Detroit is only two wins away for Michigan’s remaining 11-player teams.

But 8-player semifinalists need just one more win to complete a “March to Marquette” – and we’re flipping our usual format by leading off this week’s preview with a look at those four games.

All matchups below are Friday or Saturday, as noted. The 8-player winners will move on to Nov. 23 championship games at The Superior Dome at Northern Michigan University. The 11-player Regional champs this week will play next in neutral-site Semifinals, with those locations and times announced by Sunday morning. 

A total of 15 games will be streamed either by Fox Sports Detroit's Prep Zone or MHSAA.tv this weekend; click for links and listings

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

8-Player

Division 1

Kingston (9-2) at Suttons Bay (11-0), Saturday

Only four years ago, when current seniors were freshman, Suttons Bay had to cancel its final seven games for lack of healthy players. The Norsemen have made quite a return along with the move to 8-player, going from seven to nine to 11 wins over the last three seasons, respectively. Luke Mikesell keys a balanced attack with 1,231 yards and 20 touchdowns rushing and eight more scores receiving. Kingston also is celebrating a historic run, making the Semifinals for the first time since 1996. A dominating run game deserves much of the credit, with Caleb Goss (1,470 yards/15 TDs) and Jake DeLong (1,304/20) leading the way and quarterback Aaron Koehler running for 10 touchdowns and throwing for 15 more scores.

Morrice (10-1) at Colon (11-0), Saturday

The reigning Division 1 champion Orioles might be facing their strongest opponent of the last two seasons – including a year ago when it defeated the Magi 40-8 in a Semifinal. Colon is outscoring opponents 53-5 on average, led by dual threat quarterback Phillip Alva (792 yards/16 TDs rushing, 876 yards/17 TDs passing) and top rusher Brandon Crawford (1,404 yards/22 TDs rushing, 11.4 yds./carry). Morrice graduated some significant standouts from last season, but quarterback Jonathan Carpenter has picked things up quickly as the new starter at his spot with 1,413 yards and 21 touchdowns rushing and eight touchdown passes. Morrice’s only loss of the last two years was in Week 8 to Crystal Falls Forest Park, and it handed Deckerville its only loss this season last week.

Division 2

Hillman (10-1) at Pickford (10-1), Friday

Pickford was last season’s Division 1 runner-up with a junior-filled lineup, and that group has the team on the verge of returning to the Superior Dome. Jimmy Storey was the Associated Press’ 8-player Player of the Year in 2018 and is leading the return charge that last week included avenging the team’s lone loss, to Powers North Central. Hillman is in the midst of its 14th straight playoff trip, with only the last two in 8-player, and playing in its first Semifinal in either format. Lead rusher Gunner Mellingen (949 yards/16 TDs) has taken over even more during the playoffs, last week running for nearly 300 yards and five touchdowns in a 48-44 win over Cedarville.

Climax-Scotts (9-2) at Portland St. Patrick (11-0), Saturday

Portland St. Patrick was among early movers to 8-player and will play in its third-straight Semifinal and fourth since making the format switch in 2012. Somewhat quietly, the Shamrocks rarely have been challenged this fall – their closest win was 42-24 in Week 7 over 2018 Division 2 runner-up Onekama. Climax-Scotts is enjoying a 17th-consecutive playoff run, but this one in 8-player for the first time. The Panthers will enter their first Semifinal since 2007 after defeating Onekama last week and with the experience of rumbling through a tough southwestern region, with its losses to undefeated Division 1 semifinalist Colon and Martin, which suffered its lone loss last week to the Magi in a Regional Final. Conner Gibson (1,342 yards/16 TDs rushing) leads an offense that has run for more than 3,000 yards. 

11-Player

Division 1

West Bloomfield (10-1) at Belleville (11-0), Saturday

West Bloomfield has given Belleville one of its few close games during a two-year 23-1 run, coming within 13-10 of the Tigers in last year’s Regional Final. Another defensive showdown might be to the Lakers’ favor, as the difference this time likely will come when Belleville has the ball. The Tigers have broken 500 points and average 46 per game, while West Bloomfield is giving up only 11 and has surrendered a combined 28 points over its last six games.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Hudsonville (8-3) at Brighton (9-2), Utica Eisenhower (9-2) at Davison (9-2), Detroit Cass Tech (7-4) at Sterling Heights Stevenson (7-4).

Division 2

Port Huron (8-3) at Birmingham Seaholm (8-3), Friday

Seaholm is looking to add its first Regional title since 1997 to its first District title since 2001 won last week, while Port Huron’s last District title was a little more recent (2011) but the farthest the Big Reds have advanced. Port Huron avenged regular-season losses the last two weeks to Port Huron Northern and St. Clair Shores Lakeview, and Seaholm did the same last week in its rematch with Birmingham Groves. The Maples are enjoying their most potent offense arguably ever (36 ppg) and could set the pace, although the Big Reds have shown they’re capable of keeping up.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Muskegon Mona Shores (9-2) at Portage Northern (10-1), Livonia Churchill (7-4) at Walled Lake Western (10-1), Detroit U-D Jesuit (8-3) at Detroit Martin Luther King (9-2).

Division 3

River Rouge (10-1) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (10-1), Saturday

After two straight seasons of sub-.500 football, the host Eaglets have rounded back into the form that carried them to seven MHSAA Finals trips in eight seasons from 2009-16. Their only loss was Week 7 to Detroit Catholic Central, and they avenged it two weeks later and have gone on to break 50 points in both playoff wins so far. But River Rouge won’t be fazed as it’s also beaten DCC this fall and is a three-point Week 1 loss to Division 4 contender Grand Rapids Catholic Central from undefeated. The Panthers’ defense has been particularly impressive; after finishing last season with a 7-6 first-round playoff loss to eventual Division 3 champion King, Rouge this fall is giving up only 7.8 points per game.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Allen Park (9-2) at Chelsea (11-0). SATURDAY East Grand Rapids (8-3) at Muskegon (11-0), DeWitt (9-2) at Edwardsburg (11-0).

Division 4

Milan (11-0) at Detroit Country Day (11-0), Saturday

Speaking of shutdown defenses, Country Day is giving up 5.5 points per game while facing a schedule that so far has included seven playoff teams as the Yellowjackets have made their longest run since finishing Division 4 runner-up in 2016. Milan is pretty strong on that side of the ball as well, giving up just under 16 ppg as it seeks to reach the Semifinals for the first time. Both also have had to win close this fall – Country Day got past Harper Woods by five last week, and Milan has two one-point victories – and it will be interesting to see if that experience comes into play as these two play one of two games between undefeated teams this week.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Hudsonville Unity Christian (8-3) at Paw Paw (10-1), Flint Powers Catholic (9-2) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (10-1). SATURDAY Cadillac (7-4) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-1).

Division 5

Kalamazoo United (7-4) at Lansing Catholic (10-1), Friday

Neither of these teams was given enough credit earlier this season as opponents appeared to be standing in their way. But Lansing Catholic finally got past nemesis Portland last week for the first time since 2015, and the Cougars have a defense (giving up 13 ppg) to match their always high-octane scoring attack (41 ppg). United with a new coach and mostly new offensive stars opened this season 0-3 but have won seven of eight since including three straight over league champions. The Titans may not be scoring at last year’s program-record pace, but have given up only 14 points per game during the 7-1 run.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Dearborn Heights Robichaud (9-2) at Detroit Denby (9-2). SATURDAY Freeland (9-2) at Kingsley (11-0), Saginaw Swan Valley (8-3) at Almont (11-0).

Division 6

Maple City Glen Lake (10-1) at Calumet (10-1), Saturday

A familiar opponent stands in the way of Calumet potentially reaching the Semifinals for the first time. Just as they did in 2016, the Copper Kings will be hosting Maple City Glen Lake in a Regional Final – and last time, Glen Lake won 14-0 and ended up reaching Ford Field and finishing Division 6 runner-up. The Copper Kings are giving up just a few more points three years later, but scoring a lot more and at the same pace as the Lakers, who have broken 30 points eight of the last nine weeks.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Onsted (9-2) at Hillsdale (11-0). SATURDAY Sanford Meridian (8-3) at Montague (9-2), Montrose (10-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-1).

Division 7

Pewamo-Westphalia (11-0) at New Lothrop (11-0), Friday

With the last three Division 7 championships between these contenders, and both undefeated and barely scored upon this season, this small-school game will be getting some big attention. New Lothrop defeated the Pirates 26-14 in last year’s Regional title game on the way to winning its first Finals championship since 2006. The Hornets have outscored their opponents on average 46-7 against a schedule that included previously-unbeaten Beaverton last week, Division 6 still-contending Montrose in league play and recently-eliminated Division 5 Frankenmuth. P-W has given up 21 points this season, and none over the last three weeks. The Pirates made a statement early with a Week 1 shutout over Division 8 reigning champion Reading and haven’t been challenged since, with a 41-7 win over another Division 8 contender Fowler among highlights. The Pirates score in bunches too, averaging nearly 43 ppg.

Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Schoolcraft (10-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-0). SATURDAY Traverse City St. Francis (8-3) at Iron Mountain (11-0), Detroit Loyola (6-4) at Cass City (10-1).

Division 8

Ishpeming (9-2) at Beal City (10-1), Saturday

The Aggies’ struggles of the last two seasons should be pushed farther into distant memory as they’ve come all the way back to the verge of what would be a first Semifinal since 2014. A Week 8 loss to McBain aside, Beal City has followed a defense giving up just 11 points per game as it’s rebounded from a combined 6-12 record over the last two years and defeated previously-unbeaten Johannesburg-Lewiston last week for a District title. Ishpeming is playing for its first Semifinal berth since 2015 after narrowly missing in a close Regional loss last year to Breckenridge. The Hematites have won six straight since dropping two in a row against playoff teams Westwood and Negaunee in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Adrian Lenawee Christian (10-1) at Reading (10-1). SATURDAY Saginaw Nouvel (7-4) at Ubly (9-2), Fowler (10-1) at Royal Oak Shrine (9-2).

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PHOTO: Hillman quarterback Nash Steinke turns upfield during last week's Regional Final win over Cedarville. (Photo by Sports in Motion.)