Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '17

October 22, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Special for Second Half

We haven’t had Michigan high school football teams travel by boat to their playoff games, nor fly like the birds over places like Saginaw Bay and the northern stretch of Lake Michigan.

But phrases like “use the lake” and “follow the highway” dominated this year’s playoff mapping process, which once again saw members of the MHSAA staff and representatives of the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association draw into Districts and Regionals nearly 300 dots for our 10-division tournament that kicks off this weekend.

At the end of Saturday – around 9:48 p.m., to be nearly exact – there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 256-team 11-player tournament, plus 32 for 8-player. By midnight, we had our entire playoff field more or less figured. Sunday at the MHSAA started before sunrise with double, triple and quadruple-checking, before a committee of 12 met to draw the tournament, go over all of each other’s work again, and then get everything ready to be presented online at MHSAA.com and broadcast across the state Sunday night on FOX Sports Detroit.

So much more than that goes into the football playoffs, of course. Athletic directors are scheduling games years in advance, and we start loading schedules into our system in late April. We monitor every game played every week by 614 Michigan varsity teams, plus this season 48 of our schools’ non-Michigan opponents located in five states and Ontario. Now we’re on to lining up everything that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal hosts and continuing our work with Northern Michigan University and Ford Field’s staffs to prepare for the 8 and 11-player Finals.

But we’re also the first to say that all of that is background noise to what we all look forward to most – five weeks of the best games our state has to offer again this fall.

As we’ve done the past six seasons, we’re explaining below our most difficult decisions in placing 288 playoff qualifiers in this Mapnalysis 2017 breakdown. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2017.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season. This fall, a second division of 8-player football was introduced, and we will celebrate 10 champions for the first time.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 33 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those five we added 10 teams from Class A and nine each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus this year two representatives from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is similar but changed this fall with the additional division. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2017

Let’s start with Congratulations: First to Detroit Western and St. Louis, which qualified for the MHSAA Playoffs for the first time. Then to seven more headed back for the first time in a while: Athens (first berth since 2000), Bridgeport (1999), Flat Rock (1990), Hancock (2006), Royal Oak (2006), Salem (1991) and Vermontville Maple Valley (2005). A total of 21 programs added to totals of more than 25 playoff berths, led by Beal City now with 35, Crystal Falls Forest Park and Farmington Hills Harrison with 33, Mendon with 32, Traverse City St. Francis with 31 and Frankfort with 30. Rockford earned its 23rd straight playoff berth, tying the record set by Felch North Dickinson from 1991-2013, and Menominee earned its 22nd straight to tie Traverse City St. Francis (1990-2011) for third on the list. Of our current 614 football varsities, all but 16 have made the playoffs at least once.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Cedarville will host Rudyard in an 8-player Division 1 game this week although both teams finished with the same playoff point average – Cedarville broke the tie with its 46-28 win over the Bulldogs in Week 1, which is a good thing because their opponents had matching 38-43 records this fall. 

Many ways, no great way to slice it: The map in 11-player Division 2 was among our first tough challenges Sunday. Our most northern District seemed to make sense right away – keeping Traverse City West and Traverse City Central together with Midland and Midland Dow. From there, it’s not a pretty picture. We looked at three ways of splitting up the Detroit-area schools. We have five teams on the Grand Rapids/Muskegon/Kalamazoo side of the Lower Peninsula, but Lowell being eastern-most got sent to a District with three Flint-area schools. The 11-player Division 3 map provided a similar quandary – DeWitt, East Lansing and Haslett are packed nicely just north of Lansing, but an uneven seven schools on the western side of the Lower Peninsula meant DeWitt getting grouped with three closer to Grand Rapids with East Lansing and Haslett heading south to join Parma Western and Tecumseh. Bay City Central is the lone qualifier in this division from the Bay City/Saginaw/Midland area and also had to go somewhere – and in this case it made more sense to send it south along I-75 then across to Grand Rapids.

It’s a highway thing: In both Division 4 and Division 6 of 11-player, we have one Upper Peninsula school joining the rest from downstate. In Calumet’s case in Division 6, there are opponents in the northern Lower Peninsula to slot against, but Escanaba in Division 4 left us again relying on I-75. The trip from Escanaba to Flint Powers Catholic – the southernmost team in that four-team District – seems like a longer haul than sending Escanaba instead southwest to Whitehall. But a trip to Powers is estimated to be an hour shorter than from Escanaba to Whitehall, again because of the main highway.

Use the lake: At least three of our 11-player divisions – 1, 2 and 5 – have a District that rides close to the southeastern region of the Lower Peninsula up from Macomb County into Port Huron. While those thin Districts seem a little odd in shape, they make sense by normal traffic flow up from Lake St. Clair toward the Lake Huron coast. That helps explain why Port Huron Northern is with Roseville, Warren DeLaSalle and Ferndale instead of taking Lowell’s spot with Fenton, Flushing and Flint Carman-Ainsworth.

Worst map ever: At least in my seven years of being a part of the process. I’m speaking of the 11-player map in Division 8, which saw us with six Upper Peninsula schools, but then three Lower Peninsula schools grouped together just below Mackinac Bridge. One of these three had to go with another group, which is how we ended up with Frankfort joining Munising, Newberry and Gaylord St. Mary (Johannesburg-Lewiston and Hillman ended up with AuGres-Sims and Lincoln Alcona.). Then there are the pair of triangles in the southwest Lower Peninsula with Muskegon Catholic Central and Fulton-Middleton a good deal north of their District opponents, but with no other way to group those teams since the other six are all along I-94 or just south. It’s not pretty, but splitting MCC and Fulton up and sending them south was the best of the options we developed.

At the end of the day …

So here’s the fun part. We draw the maps without knowing who is where – and then we take a look at the matchups as they’re being prepared for TV and online.

It’s hard to pick out only a handful to mention at this time, but here’s one guess at a few that will create a buzz this week:

• In Division 1, Holland West Ottawa hosts Grandville after beating the Bulldogs 34-18 in Week 9 to earn an outright Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title; a Grandville win would’ve given championship shares to both and Rockford.

• Also in Division 1, Bloomfield Hills travels to West Bloomfield after beating the Lakers 28-24 in Week 2; West Bloomfield hasn’t lost again.

• In Division 3, Zeeland West and Zeeland East face off again after East downed West 28-8 on Friday to win the O-K Green championship.

• Also in Division 3, DeWitt hosts Grand Rapids Christian after rattling off eight straight wins – the Panthers’ only loss was to Christian 38-30 on opening night.

• Rivals Wyoming Kelloggsville and Godwin Heights meet in Division 4 after Kelloggsville beat Godwin by a point in Week 6 on the way to winning the O-K Silver title. Three Rivers and Vicksburg also will meet for the second straight week, this time in a Division 4 game; Vicksburg beat Three Rivers on Friday to deny the Wildcats a share of the Wolverine B Conference title. Harbor Beach claimed the Greater Thumb Conference East title by downing Ubly 26-14 in the league finale in Week 8, and they’ll meet again this week in Division 8.

• The best rivalry in 8-player last year was Powers North Central versus Crystal Falls Forest Park, and they’ll meet to start this postseason with the reigning champion Jets hitting the road looking to avenge a 66-58 loss to the Trojans in Week 2.

We know every game over the next five weeks will be memorable, at least for those on the field and the communities cheering them on. With our maps drawn, we look forward watching championship roads get blazed – and we’ll be waiting where they end at NMU and Ford Field.  

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 4 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula shows how I-75 served as a guide for putting Escanaba in a District that includes Flint Powers Catholic.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 1 Preview

October 31, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Whether your team's preferred final destination is Ford Field in Detroit or the Superior Dome in Marquette, the first steps will be taken this weekend during 144 MHSAA Playoff games across both peninsulas. 

Someone's season is on the line in every game from here on out, and below we take a glance at a matchup in each division that is especially notable during these first rounds of the 11 and 8-player tournaments. 

Don't let a little cool weather keep you out of the stands and supporting your favorite team at this most exciting time of year. But if you choose to stay in, take in one or more of the 30 games being broadcast on FOX Sports Detroit Prep Zone or MHSAA.tv. Click for listings and check back with MHSAA.com all weekend for scores and updated brackets. 

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

11-Player

Division 1

Saline (8-1) at Belleville (9-0), Saturday

This is the most power-packed opener in any division, with both teams making Division 1 Semifinals a year ago. Both have faced four playoff teams this fall, and the only loss between them was Saline’s Week 1 defeat against reigning champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley. The Hornets are familiar with this time of year with six District titles over the last seven seasons and a Division 1 runner-up finish in 2014. But Belleville has seemed on the verge of a Ford Field run with now three straight perfect regular seasons and, like Saline, all but one of its wins this fall by double digits.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Brighton (7-2) at Holt (7-2), Davison (7-2) at Romeo (7-2), Rochester Adams (7-2) at Utica Eisenhower (7-2), Detroit Cass Tech (5-4) at Grosse Pointe South (7-2).

Division 2

Muskegon Mona Shores (7-2) at Midland (8-1)

This is a rematch of a 2018 Division 2 Semifinal won by the Sailors 49-28. Both of these teams were stung late this fall but should be dangerous again with fresh starts that come with the playoffs. Mona Shores, which went on last season to finish D2 runner-up, has losses to two league champions including big to rival Muskegon High two weeks ago in a matchup that determined the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black title. Midland was defeated by a similar score last week by rival Midland Dow as the two shared the Saginaw Valley League Red title. The winner of this District opener could see Dow next week – the Chargers take on Big North Conference champion Traverse City Central on the other side of the District bracket.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY South Lyon (8-1) at Fenton (8-1), Farmington (7-1) at Oak Park (8-1), Port Huron (6-3) at Port Huron Northern (8-1). SATURDAY Detroit U-D Jesuit (6-3) at North Farmington (9-0).

Division 3

DeWitt (7-2) at East Lansing (7-2)

This is one of the most highly-anticipated rematches of the first week, with these two and Holt having shared the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title, and with the Panthers and Trojans finishing with the same playoff point average – East Lansing got the home game because of its 21-2 win over DeWitt in Week 5. Minus that performance, the Panthers averaged 39.6 points per game this fall – so expecting another all-out shutdown by the Trojans’ defense might be an unfair ask. But DeWitt’s defense also will have to deliver, as East Lansing’s offense (32.7 ppg) is scoring at its highest pace in decades.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Lowell (5-4) at East Grand Rapids (6-3), Zeeland East (5-4) at Zeeland West (8-1), St. Joseph (6-3) at Edwardsburg (9-0), Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (6-3) at Flint Kearsley (7-2).

Division 4

Sparta (8-1) at Muskegon Orchard View (9-0)

Both of these teams have enjoyed banner seasons. Orchard View posted its first winning record since 2014, earned its first playoff berth since 2008, won the Lakes 8 Conference title and finished the regular season perfect for the first time since 2005. Sparta made the playoffs for the first time since 2013, tying its most wins since 2011 with its best regular-season record since 2006. The Spartans finished second in the O-K Blue to Grand Rapids Catholic Central, which faces Allendale on the other side of this District bracket. Orchard View did beat five playoff teams on the way to the playoffs. But comparing their lone shared opponent, Sparta downed playoff qualifier Spring Lake 38-3 in Week 3 after Orchard View defeated the Lakers 22-17 on opening night.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Fowlerville (6-3) at Goodrich (7-2), North Branch (7-2) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (8-1), Ortonville Brandon (7-2) at St. Clair (8-1).

Division 5

Almont (9-0) at Richmond (8-1)

This is a rare occurrence; Almont defeated Richmond in Week 7 28-10 and went on to win the Blue Water Area Conference title outright while closing out its second-straight perfect regular season. However, the Blue Devils’ nonleague opponents both made the playoffs, and the bonus for playing those teams was enough to push Richmond past Almont into a home game this week. The Raiders, however, also won the first Richmond game this fall on the road, and their annually-awesome defense continues to play anywhere. Almont has given up 69 points this fall – 39 over five home games and 30 over four away. But take away the first Almont matchup, and Richmond is averaging a robust 33.5 points per game.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Central Montcalm (7-2) at Portland (7-2), Olivet (8-1) at Lansing Catholic (8-1), Reed City (6-3) at Kingsley (9-0), Kalamazoo United (5-4) at Berrien Springs (8-0).

Division 6

Menominee (6-3) at Ishpeming Westwood (7-2), Saturday

Menominee is the smallest of Great Northern Conference schools and will play in Division 6 this playoffs after years in Division 4 and then Division 5. That has the Maroons matching up with many of the best from the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference, including Westwood for the first time. The Patriots finished third in the Iron, the strongest of the two West PAC divisions this fall – and they also beat Copper champion Ishpeming 38-0 in Week 4. But Menominee presents an all-new challenge, and the Maroons are on a roll after putting up 48 points last week in handing Division 5 contender Hopkins its only loss this fall.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Lake City (6-3) at Maple City Glen Lake (8-1), Ravenna (7-2) at Muskegon Catholic Central (6-2), Jonesville (6-3) at Hillsdale (9-0), Constantine (7-2) at Niles Brandywine (9-0).

Division 7

Detroit Loyola (4-4) at Detroit Central (8-1)

While Cass Tech and Martin Luther King always get the bulk of attention out of the Detroit Public School League, Central has earned recognition too winning the PSL Division 3 title and 3/4 championship game. There are seven unbeaten teams in the Division 7 bracket, and they’re getting the most attention. But the Trail Blazers have won eight straight games (including a forfeit) since falling to Dearborn Heights Crestwood in Week 1. Loyola is a deceptive 4-4, considering the high level of competition it faces. A Central win in this one would further announce the Blazers will be tough to beat.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Harbor Springs (6-3) at Charlevoix (6-3), Byron (6-3) at Beaverton (9-0), Centreville (6-3) at Lawton (9-0). SATURDAY Houghton Lake (6-3) at Traverse City St. Francis (6-3).

Division 8

Addison (7-2) at Sand Creek (7-2)

Both of these teams have faced and will be ready for top competition. Cascades Conference champion Addison is hitting the road to start the playoffs, seeking its first postseason win since 2007 and after closing the regular season against reigning Division 8 champion Reading. Sand Creek tied for second in the Tri-County Conference, but behind undefeated Division 7 contender Clinton and with the same TCC record as annual Division 8 challenger Ottawa Lake Whiteford. The Aggies also finished just ahead of Britton Deerfield thanks to a 50-22 Week 5 win – four weeks after B-D defeated Addison 28-16 to open the season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Flint Beecher (5-3) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (8-0), Mendon (7-2) at Reading (8-1), White Pigeon (7-2) at Cassopolis (9-0). SATURDAY Ottawa Lake Whiteford (5-4) at Royal Oak Shrine Catholic (7-2).

8-Player

Division 1

Gaylord St. Mary (4-5) at Pellston (8-1)

Pellston is one of three teams statewide making its playoff debut this weekend, boasting its first winning regular-season record since 1995. The Hornets’ only loss was the eventual Midwest Central Michigan Conference East champion Hillman, and they are riding an offense scoring just more than 46 points per game. St. Mary’s story has been well-publicized; the Snowbirds had to forfeit four wins earlier this fall but won their final two games to still make the playoffs. On the field they’ve averaged nearly 58 points per game, making this a likely offensive showdown regardless of the possible wintery weather.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Mesick (7-2) at Kingston (7-2), Bellevue (6-3) at Martin (9-0), New Haven Merritt (8-1) at Morrice (8-1).

Division 2

Crystal Falls Forest Park (7-2) at Powers North Central (9-0)

One of the best Upper Peninsula rivalries of the last half-decade will play out again after the teams previously met in Week 6 – a 34-8 Jets win that helped lock up the Great Lakes Conference West title. These two have met in the playoffs as well the last three years – and combined for three straight MHSAA Finals championship from 2015-17 – and last year the Trojans avenged a 24-point regular-season loss with a 12-point win over the Jets in Pre-Regional play. The first meeting this fall, North Central contained an offense that otherwise has averaged 51.8 points per game. Not counting a forfeit win last week, the Jets had three shutouts and gave up only six points per game during this regular season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Engadine (8-1) at Pickford (8-1), Brethren (5-4) at Climax-Scotts (7-2), Kinde North Huron (6-3) at Peck (5-4).

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PHOTO: North Central clears a pylon for a score during a 54-0 win over Newberry on Oct. 11. (Photo by Jeff Rochefort.)