Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
Week 9 Football Playoff Listing
October 22, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Here is a list of Michigan High School Athletic Association football playing schools, displaying their win-loss records and playoff averages through the eighth week of the season. Schools on this list are in enrollment order. An asterisk (*) beside a record indicates that a team has eight or fewer games scheduled. A caret (^) beside a school’s name indicates that a team is one win away from playoff qualification.
Those schools with 11-player teams with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules, or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer, will qualify for the MHSAA Football Playoffs beginning Nov. 1-2. Schools with 5-4, 4-3 or 4-4 records may qualify if the number of potential qualifiers by win total does not reach the 256 mark. Schools with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer may be subtracted from the field based on playoff average if the number of potential qualifiers exceeds the 256 mark.
Once the 256 qualifying schools are determined, they will be divided by enrollment groups into eight equal divisions of 32 schools, and then drawn into regions of eight teams each and districts of four teams each.
Those schools with 8-player teams will be ranked by playoff average at season’s end, and the top 16 programs will be drawn into regions of eight teams each for the playoff in that division, which also begins Nov. 1-2.
To review a list of all football playoff schools, individual school playoff point details and to report errors, visit the Football page of the MHSAA Website.
The announcement of the qualifiers and first-round pairings for both the 11 and 8-player playoffs will take place on Oct. 27 on the Selection Sunday Show at 7 p.m. on FOX Sports Detroit. The playoff qualifiers and pairings will be posted to the MHSAA Website following the Selection Sunday Show.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11-Player Playoff Listing
1. Sterling Heights Stevenson, 2781, 4-4, 51.500
2. Utica Eisenhower, 2772, 4-4, 53.750
3. Clarkston, 2737, 7-1, 95.500
4. Macomb Dakota, 2693, 8-0, 108.000
5. Howell ^, 2672, 5-3, 64.625
6. Grand Blanc, 2624, 6-2, 81.625
7. East Kentwood ^, 2612, 5-3, 66.750
8. Rockford, 2572, 7-1, 92.750
9. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley, 2506, 7-1, 95.875
10. Lake Orion, 2490, 6-2, 78.375
11. Dearborn Fordson ^, 2309, 5-3, 68.589
12. Holland West Ottawa ^, 2293, 5-3, 66.000
13. Northville, 2275, 7-1, 97.250
14. Detroit Cass Tech, 2262, 8-0, 107.000
15. Brighton ^, 2164, 5-3, 69.000
16. Monroe ^, 2145, 5-3, 62.500
17. Detroit Catholic Central, 2132, 7-1, 94.161
18. Plymouth ^, 2126, 5-3, 61.625
19. Canton, 2078, 7-1, 95.750
20. Novi, 1986, 4-4, 52.375
21. Livonia Stevenson, 1983, 4-4, 49.000
22. Macomb L'Anse Creuse North, 1965, 7-1, 89.500
23. West Bloomfield ^, 1941, 5-3, 63.750
24. New Baltimore Anchor Bay, 1899, 4-4, 48.875
25. Saline, 1897, 7-1, 94.275
26. Westland John Glenn ^, 1880, 5-3, 61.375
27. Holt, 1866, 4-4, 53.250
28. Warren Mott, 1796, 8-0, 99.000
29. Romeo, 1793, 4-4, 54.750
30. Oxford, 1782, 4-4, 51.625
31. Rochester Hills Stoney Creek, 1759, 6-2, 79.250
32. Hudsonville ^, 1736, 5-3, 70.875
33. Ann Arbor Skyline, 1715, 4-4, 49.250
34. Grand Ledge, 1715, 4-4, 51.250
35. Belleville ^, 1714, 5-3, 64.750
36. Davison, 1692, 4-4, 44.250
37. Walled Lake Northern, 1688, 6-2, 80.125
38. Traverse City West ^, 1653, 5-3, 66.500
39. Rochester, 1615, 4-4, 52.125
40. Waterford Kettering ^, 1604, 5-3, 66.125
41. Temperance Bedford, 1600, 8-0, 114.000
42. Grosse Pointe South ^, 1598, 5-3, 62.500
43. Rochester Adams ^, 1582, 5-3, 67.000
44. Saginaw Heritage ^, 1575, 5-3, 60.250
45. Warren DeLaSalle ^, 1564, 5-3, 74.500
46. Walled Lake Western, 1556, 8-0, 108.000
47. Flint Carman-Ainsworth, 1488, 7-1, 86.875
48. Detroit U-D Jesuit, 1476, 4-4, 55.500
49. Midland, 1462, 7-1, 90.750
50. Ypsilanti Lincoln, 1460, 7-1, 85.875
51. Pinckney ^, 1452, 5-3, 65.625
52. Traverse City Central ^, 1448, 5-3, 60.571
53. Oak Park ^, 1438, 5-3, 64.875
54. Detroit Martin Luther King *, 1432, 7-0, 103.571
55. Royal Oak, 1414, 4-4, 47.625
56. Southgate Anderson, 1409, 4-4, 48.500
57. Ypsilanti Community, 1399, 4-4, 45.000
58. Port Huron ^, 1398, 5-3, 63.107
59. Wyandotte Roosevelt, 1373, 8-0, 110.000
60. Portage Central, 1372, 8-0, 108.000
61. Lansing Everett ^, 1369, 5-3, 58.625
62. Portage Northern, 1364, 6-2, 74.625
63. Garden City, 1362, 4-4, 47.125
64. Southfield, 1356, 7-1, 95.875
65. North Farmington *, 1352, 5-3, 56.286
66. Caledonia ^, 1350, 5-3, 60.000
67. Battle Creek Lakeview, 1348, 8-0, 90.000
68. Birmingham Seaholm, 1337, 8-0, 103.000
69. Birmingham Brother Rice, 1326, 8-0, 111.200
70. Grosse Pointe North ^, 1323, 5-3, 65.375
71. Muskegon Mona Shores, 1314, 6-2, 79.500
72. Midland Dow, 1304, 7-1, 85.036
73. Farmington Hills Harrison, 1300, 7-1, 93.750
74. South Lyon, 1277, 6-2, 82.250
75. Swartz Creek, 1277, 4-4, 52.768
76. Birmingham Groves, 1274, 7-1, 85.875
77. Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills ^, 1231, 5-3, 52.500
78. Fenton, 1188, 8-0, 101.000
79. Grand Rapids Northview, 1182, 4-4, 49.750
80. Mattawan, 1176, 4-4, 45.625
81. Warren Woods Tower, 1170, 6-2, 62.750
82. Muskegon Reeths-Puffer, 1151, 7-1, 92.500
83. Lowell, 1146, 8-0, 118.000
84. Taylor Truman, 1131, 6-2, 74.500
85. East Lansing, 1124, 4-4, 52.750
86. Holly, 1124, 4-4, 49.375
87. Muskegon, 1118, 7-1, 97.875
88. Lapeer East, 1113, 4-4, 50.625
89. Marquette *, 1110, 5-2, 73.286
90. Detroit East English ^, 1109, 5-3, 59.750
91. Detroit Cody ^, 1106, 5-3, 57.250
92. Allen Park, 1103, 6-2, 76.625
93. Detroit Renaissance ^, 1097, 5-3, 53.268
94. Detroit Mumford, 1090, 6-2, 72.732
95. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern, 1079, 6-2, 71.250
96. St. Johns, 1079, 4-4, 47.625
97. Zeeland East ^, 1071, 5-3, 67.125
98. Lapeer West, 1063, 7-1, 91.375
99. Redford Thurston ^, 1063, 5-3, 65.375
100. Auburn Hills Avondale, 1055, 4-4, 42.375
101. Byron Center, 1039, 6-2, 68.750
102. Mt. Pleasant, 1033, 7-1, 92.875
103. Riverview, 993, 6-2, 66.625
104. St. Joseph, 986, 7-1, 88.875
105. Orchard Lake St. Mary's, 980, 4-4, 54.625
106. Petoskey ^, 965, 5-3, 62.000 &a