Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 8 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 18, 2024
It all comes down to this weekend for several of this football season's league title races across Michigan.
As one might expect at this late date, Week 8’s schedule is filled with clashes that will be remembered for decades by those who are part of them over the next two days.
All but one of our featured matchups have league championship implications, as do several more that will be played this week across both peninsulas.
Games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page. Updated standings also are available by clicking the schools on the score list, and every division’s playoff points summary updates as well as scores are received.
Bay & Thumb
Frankenmuth (7-0) at Freeland (7-0) WATCH
Another year, another opportunity for these two to play for a Tri-Valley Conference title. The Red championship is again on the line, as is Frankenmuth’s 65-game league winning streak going back to 2014. The Eagles have defeated Freeland in five straight, including 38-13 last season when both entered undefeated as well. The Falcons’ defense has been exceptional this season, with four shutouts and no more than six points given up in a game before allowing 27 last week to Bay City John Glenn. The Eagles will counter with an offense that hasn’t scored fewer than 41 points since a season-opening 22-0 shutout of Goodrich.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY North Branch (5-2) at Almont (7-0) WATCH, Goodrich (6-1) at Fenton (7-0) WATCH, Grand Blanc (6-1) at Davison (6-1), Clare (6-1) at Pinconning (5-2) WATCH.
Grater Detroit
Detroit Cass Tech (5-2) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (6-1) at Ford Field WATCH
This is another annual rematch, for the Detroit Public School League City title, with these two playing each other for the second time in the same season for the fifth-straight year. King won the first meeting this season 18-12 in overtime in Week 4, and over the last four years the winner of the first game has won the rematch as well three times – including Cass Tech claiming both a year ago. The Technicians’ defense has remained stellar, giving up just six points with two shutouts in its three games since the first loss to the Crusaders, while King has two shutouts as well over its last three games.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clarkston Everest Collegiate (7-0) at Royal Oak Shrine Catholic (6-1), Dearborn Fordson (5-2) at Belleville (7-0) WATCH, Gibraltar Carlson (6-1) at Allen Park (6-1), Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (5-2) at Macomb Lutheran North (6-1) WATCH, Detroit Central (5-2) vs. Detroit Denby (5-2) at Ford Field WATCH.
Mid-Michigan
Brighton (6-1) at Howell (7-0) WATCH
Howell has already clinched a share of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West championship thanks to last week’s 35-21 win over Novi. But Brighton can mash things up tonight, as a Bulldogs win would create a three-team title share between Howell, Brighton and Novi. The Highlanders and Bulldogs have split their last four meetings, with Howell winning last year’s 43-7. Brighton’s only loss this fall was 37-34 to Novi in Week 4 – but the Bulldogs also have shown the ability to pull out a close win with one-point victories over Northville and Plymouth.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ogemaw Heights (6-1) at Harrison (7-0), Lansing Sexton (4-3) at Portland (7-0), Lansing Catholic (5-2) at Olivet (5-2) WATCH, Walled Lake Western (7-0) at Mason (6-1).
Northern Lower Peninsula
East Jordan (5-2) at Frankfort (6-1) WATCH
These two will hold out hope for a Mancelona win over Maple City Glen Lake in Week 9 – a victory by the Ironmen next week would give tonight’s winner a share of the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy title. But in the meantime, Frankfort and East Jordan also are setting up playoff position, with Frankfort entering this week No. 15 on the Division 8 playoff points list and East Jordan just one spot behind at No. 16. A home playoff game very well could be on the line, and every little advantage counts as these two have played four straight games decided by six or fewer points – including the Red Devils’ 38-36 victory in East Jordan a year ago.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Oscoda (5-2) at Boyne City (5-2) WATCH, Montague (3-4) at Manistee (4-3) WATCH, Bay City Western (2-5) at Traverse City West (4-3) WATCH, Kalkaska (2-5) at Kingsley (5-2) WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Clinton (6-1) at Hudson (6-1) WATCH
The Lenawee County Athletic Association title comes down almost completely to this matchup, as these two are tied atop the standings with two league games to play and the winner tonight clinching a share of the championship. Clinton won it outright last year, with Hudson finishing runner-up thanks to a 29-0 Redwolves victory in the regular-season finale. The Tigers’ lone loss this season came to still-undefeated Fowler, and they haven’t been challenged much since. Clinton also opened with a defeat, to also still-undefeated Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, and since has advanced through four wins by 10 or fewer points.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Bronson (5-2) at Springport (6-1) WATCH, Brooklyn Columbia Central (3-4) at Hanover-Horton (7-0) WATCH, Grass Lake (4-3) at Leslie (7-0) WATCH, Manchester (5-2) at Michigan Center (3-4) WATCH.
Southwest Corridor
Kalamazoo United (6-1) at Parchment (6-1)
This is a winner-take-all for the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore championship, and both are bringing significant momentum into this matchup. Parchment downed last season’s champion Constantine last week 51-30 and has given up 46 points total this season not counting its 48-16 loss to Dowagiac in Week 3. United’s loss also came in Week 3, 27-18 to Lawton, and the Titans otherwise have allowed just 41 points this fall with the majority also coming during a 33-21 win over Constantine. United has defeated Parchment in six straight, including the last five as league opponents, but only 30-28 a year ago.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kalamazoo Central (5-2) at Mattawan (4-3), Buchanan (4-3) at Dowagiac (5-2), Portage Northern (4-3) at Kalamazoo Loy Norrix (5-2) WATCH, Saugatuck (5-2) at Lawton (5-2) WATCH.
Upper Peninsula
Kingsford (7-0) at Menominee (7-0)
Kingsford and Menominee also met last season with league title implications, and the Flivvers’ 41-32 victory resulted in a shared Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper title between Kingsford and Negaunee, while the Maroons finished tied for third. This time, it’s winner take all. Menominee is coming off a 34-19 win over Negaunee, while Kingsford got its 29-27 Negaunee win in Week 4 and hasn’t been challenged much the last few weeks. The Flivvers have three shutouts and are giving up only seven points per game, a notable detail as Menominee is averaging 50 points per game.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Iron Mountain (7-0) at Manistique (4-3) WATCH, Houghton (3-4) at Negaunee (5-2), Bark River-Harris (4-3) at West Iron County (3-4) WATCH. SATURDAY Cadillac (4-3) at Marquette (5-2).
West Michigan
Holland Christian (6-1) at Grand Rapids Northview (7-0)
A week after what has to be considered one of the most memorable wins in program history, Northview must finish the job in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black against another contender enjoying one of its best seasons in some time. The Wildcats are coming off a 12-3 win over always-powerful Grand Rapids Catholic Central, and Holland Christian’s only defeat came to the Cougars 42-18 the week before. The Maroons rebounded off of that loss with a one-point win last week over one-win Middleville Thornapple Kellogg, but now have a chance at a shared league title if they can prevail tonight – although there haven’t been many down moments for Northview during a run that’s also included wins over Southeastern Conference White champion Chelsea and East Grand Rapids to start the league schedule.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Coopersville (5-2) at Big Rapids (6-1) WATCH, Muskegon (3-3) at Byron Center (6-1), Hamilton (5-2) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (5-2), Decatur (6-1) at Hopkins (6-1) WATCH.
8-Player
Pickford (7-0) at Norway (6-1) WATCH
This may end up just the first of multiple meetings between these two this season – they played each other during the regular season and playoffs a year ago – but this matchup carries much more significance than their first last fall as the winner tonight will earn a share of the Great Lakes Eight Conference East title. Pickford is the reigning champ, but Norway played in the GLEC West last season and won that division in similarly dominant fashion. The Panthers did claim both of their 2023 meetings, 40-18 and then 34-16 in a Division 1 Regional Final, and they are averaging 54 points per game and allowing just under seven. But Norway might provide the greatest challenge yet, having kicked things up a notch offensively with an already high-caliber offense averaging 45 points a game.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Mendon (7-0) vs. Climax-Scotts (6-1), Pittsford (6-1) at Waldron (5-2), Bellaire (6-1) at Indian River Inland Lakes (7-0) WATCH, Bay City All Saints (6-1) at Kinde North Huron (6-1) WATCH.
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PHOTO Grand Rapids Northview's Jalen Gant (1) works to break a tackle against East Grand Rapids during a Week 4 win. (Photo by Michigan Sports Photo.)