Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 7 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 11, 2024
There are only three weeks left in the 2024 football regular season. But there's still plenty of time to shake things up.
Several newly-crowned league champions could celebrate tonight or Saturday – but as we detail below, scenarios exist in a number of leagues where one, two or three teams are still in the title mix.
And as we look farther toward the MHSAA Playoffs, there's good news as well (or bad, depending on how your favorite team is sitting). Of last year's field of 288 playoff teams, 27 were not among the top 32 (11-player) or 16 (8-player) in their respective divisions heading into Week 7. That number was consistent with 2022, when 25 eventual playoff teams were outside the field with three weeks to play.
There were 17 games Thursday night, including a matchup for first in the Lakes Valley Conference between co-leaders Milford and Walled Lake Western (which Western won 37-0) and a decider in the Oakland Activities Association Red (where Oxford claimed a title share with a 38-14 win over West Bloomfield). All games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page. Updated standings also are available by clicking the schools on the score list, and every division’s playoff points summary updates as well as scores are received.
Bay & Thumb
Fenton (6-0) at Flushing (5-1) WATCH
Fenton will be playing to finish off a sixth-straight Flint Metro League divisional championship after clinching a share of the Stripes title last week. Rival Flushing has a chance to claim a piece of a championship for the first time since sharing the formerly one-division Metro title in 2018 – a season which also featured its most recent win over the Tigers. The Raiders’ only loss this fall was to Linden, by a point in Week 4, and Linden also is tied for second place, would gain a title share with a Flushing win, and fell to Fenton by just three points last week.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY North Branch (5-1) at Armada (5-1) WATCH, Harbor Beach (6-0) at Reese (4-2) WATCH, Marysville (5-1) at St. Clair (5-1), Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (4-2) at Millington (5-0) WATCH.
Greater Detroit
Macomb Dakota (6-0) at Utica Eisenhower (5-1) WATCH
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley’s stunning win last week over Eisenhower may have blunted some of the buzz that would have come with this matchup – but could also fire up the Eagles even more. They’ll claim a share of the Macomb Area Conference Red title with a win after Dakota guaranteed a share last week thanks to that Eisenhower loss. The Eagles won last year’s meeting with the Cougars 31-0, but Dakota has given up only 52 points total over six games this fall.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Macomb Lutheran North (5-1) at Riverview Gabriel Richard (6-0) WATCH, Port Huron Northern (4-2) at Warren Mott (5-1), Howell (6-0) at Novi (5-1) WATCH. SATURDAY Romulus Summit Academy North (5-0) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (5-1)
Mid-Michigan
Saginaw Nouvel Catholic Central (6-0) at Ithaca (6-0) WATCH
Nouvel is enjoying its best start since finishing Division 8 runner-up in 2017 and already has surpassed last season’s four wins. Tonight provides an opportunity to take another step as the Panthers have lost all five matchups with Ithaca since joining the Tri-Valley Conference in 2018. The winner of this one clinches the TVC Blue title outright – and the Yellowjackets have a pair of impressive streaks on the line as well. They’ve won 19 straight league games going back to 2020 and 15 consecutive league championships.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY DeWitt (6-0) at Grand Ledge (4-2) WATCH, Chesaning (6-0) at Ovid-Elsie (6-0) WATCH, Ionia (4-2) at Lansing Catholic (4-2), East Lansing (3-3) at Lansing Everett (5-1) WATCH.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Marquette (5-1) at Petoskey (6-0) WATCH
The winner earns a share of the Big North Conference title. Petoskey is seeking its first since 2011, and a victory tonight also would guarantee its best record since 2015. Marquette, meanwhile, is in its second season in the BNC and finished second a year ago. Last season’s pair of games against Marquette may have set the stage for this Petoskey run; the Northmen lost 21-20 in Week 8 but claimed the rematch 26-7 in a playoff opener. Scoring could be limited this time; aside from a Week 4 loss to Lowell, the Sentinels have given up seven points total this fall, while Petoskey is allowing just 9.2 per game.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Evart (4-2) at McBain (6-0), Cheboygan (3-3) at Kingsley (4-2) WATCH, Charlevoix (4-2) at Mancelona (3-3), Mount Pleasant (4-2) at Traverse City West (3-3) WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Union City (6-0) at Springport (6-0) WATCH
The winner claims a share of the Big 8 Conference title, which for Springport would be a first since 2016 and for Union City its third straight. The Chargers have won 17 consecutive league games, in fact, and defeated Springport in four straight including 41-0 last fall. But the Spartans are enjoying their best season since 2018 and after going 0-9 only two years ago. They’ve already avenged 2023 losses to Sand Creek, Stockbridge and Quincy and have scored nearly as many points this fall as the last two years combined.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ida (5-1) at Adrian Madison (4-2) WATCH, Flat Rock (5-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (6-0), Chelsea (5-1) at Jackson (4-2) WATCH, Traverse City St. Francis (5-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (5-1) WATCH.
Southwest Corridor
Hastings (6-0) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (5-1)
Save for an upset over the next two weeks, this matchup likely will decide the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title. These two have some history with that; Hastings, Harper Creek and Jackson Lumen Christi shared the championship in 2021, and since the Saxons have won the last three and 20 straight league games. The Beavers will hope a much-improved offense averaging 40 points per game can continue surging against a Hastings defense that gave up only 11.5 ppg in league play in 2023 – and has lowered that to 7.3 ppg over four league games this fall.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Dowagiac (5-1) at Berrien Springs (3-3) WATCH, Parchment (5-1) at Constantine (5-1), Niles (5-1) at Edwardsburg (4-2) WATCH, Saugatuck (5-1) at Schoolcraft (5-1) WATCH, Portage Central (4-2) at Portage Northern (4-2) WATCH.
Upper Peninsula
Menominee (6-0) at Negaunee (5-1) WATCH
Menominee is set up for its toughest tests over its final three games of the regular season, as Negaunee, Week 8 opponent Kingsford and Week 9’s Bark River-Harris are a combined 15-3. Negaunee welcomed the Maroons to the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference last year with a 47-20 win and need a repeat performance to have any hope of a West-PAC Copper shared title after losing to Kingsford in Week 4. Menominee’s only losses last season were to Negaunee and Kingsford before reaching the Division 7 championship game, so there’s extra incentive there as well.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Bark River-Harris (4-2) at Iron Mountain (6-0) WATCH, Ishpeming Westwood (2-4) at Kingsford (6-0) WATCH, Calumet (3-3) at Hancock (1-5). SATURDAY Manistique (3-3) at Gwinn (2-4).
West Michigan
Grand Rapids Northview (6-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (5-1)
Northview’s best season since 2018 would have its best highlight yet with a win tonight that would not only clinch a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black championship but deliver Grand Rapids Catholic Central a rare loss. Catholic Central is facing a second-straight undefeated opponent and handed Holland Christian its first loss last week, 42-18; the Cougars have lost only one league game over the last eight seasons.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids South Christian (4-2) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (6-0), Big Rapids (5-1) at Newaygo (5-1), Ravenna (4-2) at North Muskegon (5-1) WATCH, Grand Rapids West Catholic (4-2) at Ada Forest Hills Eastern (5-1) WATCH.
8-Player
Gobles (6-0) at Martin (5-0) WATCH
This also is a winner-take-all, for the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League Red championship, and with a nice rivalry brewing after Gobles won last season’s regular-season meeting 53-16 but the Clippers won the Regional Final rematch 28-6. Martin is coming off scoring a season-high 70 points and has topped 50 three of the last four games, while Gobles has held its last three opponents (and four total) to single digits and posted its second shutout of the season last week.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Au Gres-Sims (5-1) at Atlanta (5-1) WATCH, Kingston (5-1) at Deckerville (6-0) WATCH, Portland St. Patrick (6-0) at Fulton (5-1) WATCH, Powers North Central (5-1) at Ontonagon (4-2).
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PHOTO Escanaba's Alex Morgan (56) and Keagan Braun (21) converge on Marquette's Chase Niemi (9) as he gets closer to the end zone during the Sentinels' Week 6 win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)