Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 5 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 27, 2024
As we reach the midpoint of the 2024 football regular season this weekend, 88 teams – or 15 percent of the state’s 601 varsities – have yet to taste a loss this fall.
That may change substantially over the next three days.
A first defeat is guaranteed for at least four teams, as four Week 5 matchups pit undefeated opponents – and we dig into two of those games below. A total of 24 more undefeated teams will face opponents who have suffered just one loss over the first month, and we highlight some of those matchups as well – plus a few unexpected picks as we take a bit of a long view on potential league title and playoff qualification outcomes while rolling into the second half.
All games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page. Updated standings also are available by clicking the schools on the score list, and every division’s playoff points summary updates as well as scores are received.
Bay & Thumb
Ovid-Elsie (4-0) at Montrose (3-1) WATCH
Three teams have started the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference schedule 2-0, and these are two of them. Both were original members of the league in 2018, but their only championship came with a three-team share of the title in 2021 – although Montrose has won four District titles and a Regional championship over the last six seasons, and Ovid-Elsie made the Division 6 Semifinals last fall. The Marauders’ 42 points in a 35-point win last week over Durand were their season low; conversely, Montrose downed Durand by only six points 20-14 in Week 3 but over the season is allowing just under 11 per game – and with that lone loss opening night to 2023 Division 8 semifinalist Riverview Gabriel Richard.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Almont (4-0) at Croswell-Lexington (3-1) WATCH, Lansing Everett (4-0) at Grand Blanc (3-1) WATCH, Traverse City West (3-1) at Midland (3-1) WATCH, Port Huron Northern (2-2) at Port Huron (3-1) WATCH.
Greater Detroit
Warren De La Salle Collegiate (3-1) at Detroit Catholic Central (4-0), Sunday WATCH
This season’s DCC “Boys Bowl” features two of the top three teams in the Catholic High School League Central. DCC leads the division thanks to a 21-7 Week 2 win over Toledo Central Catholic, and De La Salle is chasing after last week’s 41-6 loss to TCC. But a Pilots win in this Sunday afternoon matchup would reset things at the top of the standings, and De La Salle has claimed the last three meetings with the Shamrocks – including 14-7 a year ago.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Roseville (3-1) at Grosse Pointe South (4-0), Rochester Adams (4-0) at Lake Orion (3-1) WATCH, Detroit Henry Ford (4-0) at Detroit Martin Luther King (3-1), Riverview (4-0) at Flat Rock (4-0) WATCH.
Mid-Michigan
DeWitt (4-0) at East Lansing (3-1) WATCH
This has been the most anticipated matchup in the Lansing area going back to last year’s 40-34 East Lansing win that ended up deciding the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue championship. The lone loss between them this season was the Trojans’ 14-12 defeat against Hudsonville in Week 2, and that defeat keeps looking better as Hudsonville downed Division 1 contender Rockford last week. DeWitt has scored at least 55 points in all four of its games, but also given up 42 or more twice – and with the playmakers on both sides, this could be another high-scoring clash.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ogemaw Heights (4-0) at Clare (4-0) WATCH, Lake Fenton (3-1) at Corunna (4-0) WATCH, Portland (4-0) at Lansing Catholic (3-1), Manchester (4-0) at Leslie (4-0) WATCH.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Kingsley (3-1) at Traverse City St. Francis (3-1) WATCH
Much-improved Cheboygan may play a role, and Benzie Central pushed Kingsley hard last week. But these two look like the favorites in the Northern Michigan Football League Legends, and this game looks like it could end up eventually deciding the title. Both have a loss to a good opponent this fall, the Stags to Reed City in their opener and St. Francis two weeks ago to a 2023 league champion in Berrien Springs. Kingsley won last season’s meeting with the Gladiators 44-21 on the way to finishing second in the league but claiming the Division 6 championship in November.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Maple City Glen Lake (3-1) at East Jordan (3-1) WATCH, Cheboygan (3-1) at Boyne City (2-2) WATCH, Benzie Central (2-2) at Charlevoix (2-2) WATCH, McBain (4-0) at Houghton Lake (2-2) WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Petersburg Summerfield (3-1) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (2-2) WATCH
This will be the final season of 11-player football in the 41-year-old Tri-County Conference, and among the remaining three teams Whiteford and Summerfield are tied with the most league titles with seven apiece. Whiteford has dominated in four straight wins between these two, including a 2021 playoff victory and 43-0 a year ago in Week 9 to keep the Bulldogs out of the playoffs. But Summerfield is off to another solid start, with its lone defeat by three to improved Decatur, and will try to catch a Bobcats team coming off a 50-20 loss to undefeated Edon, Ohio.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Milan (2-2) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (4-0), Onsted (2-2) at Ida (3-1) WATCH, Blissfield (2-2) at Hudson (3-1) WATCH, Grass Lake (3-1) at Napoleon (2-2).
Southwest Corridor
Galesburg-Augusta (2-2) at Lawton (3-1) WATCH
Galesburg-Augusta is off to its best start since 2016, when it finished 5-4 – its only winning season this century. A victory over Allegan in Week 3 was notable and gave the Rams as many this season (2) as all of last. Things get more difficult from here, however, as Schoolcraft started off the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley schedule by handing G-A a 49-0 defeat. Lawton, meanwhile, opened its league slate with a 42-6 rumbling over Delton Kellogg and has won 12 straight Valley games and three straight championships.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY South Haven (2-2) at Parchment (3-1), Parma Western (3-1) at Coldwater (2-2), Allegan (2-2) at Constantine (4-0), Bronson (3-1) at Vermontville Maple Valley (2-2) WATCH.
Upper Peninsula
Bark River-Harris (2-2) at Manistique (2-2) WATCH
This might seem like another unexpected choice for special attention, but both teams enter this weekend with an opportunity to affect their season's eventual outcome significantly. The Emeralds are coming off a 4-5 finish a year ago, their best record since 2012, and a win over Bark River-Harris would not only be a first in five recent meetings but also a strong step toward reaching five or more wins this fall – especially with their final two games against currently undefeated Iron Mountain and Saginaw Nouvel. The Broncos, meanwhile, opened this season 0-2 but have begun to rebound as they pursue a sixth-straight winning regular season – and with Iron Mountain and Menominee coming up, this one would go a long way toward achieving that possibility.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kingsford (4-0) at Calumet (2-2) WATCH, Houghton (2-2) at Menominee (4-0) WATCH, Ishpeming Westwood (1-3) at Gladstone (1-3) WATCH. SATURDAY Gwinn (2-2) at West Iron County (1-3) WATCH.
West Michigan
Zeeland West (4-0) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (4-0)
The realigned Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold took Zeeland West away from the Muskegon powerhouses but dropped it into a division with, among others, reigning Division 3 champion Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central from the O-K White and rebounding Unity from the O-K Blue. The Crusaders are only three years removed from a trip to Ford Field and defeated Forest Hills Central 43-20 last week in a league opener, while West opened with a 28-13 win over rival Zeeland East. Worth noting, Grand Rapids South Christian is the only holdover back from the previous O-K Gold alignment, and the Sailors also are 4-0 and see Unity and Zeeland West back-to-back in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hudsonville (3-1) at East Kentwood (3-1) WATCH, Newaygo (4-0) at Reed City (3-1) WATCH, Grand Rapids South Christian (4-0) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (3-1) WATCH, Muskegon Mona Shores (4-0) at Muskegon (1-2).
8-Player
Brown City (3-1) at Kingston (4-0)
Brown City has an enrollment too large to allow the Green Devils to participate in the playoffs this season, so a repeat league championship has to be a main objective – and despite falling 30-28 to Deckerville last week, Brown City still has a chance to end up with at least a share of the Big Thumb Conference Blue title. Kingston and Deckerville now lead the league, and they face off in Week 7 – and Kingston also ended Brown City’s 2023 season with a Regional Final shutout. But a win tonight definitely would allow the Green Devils to root for the Cardinals in two weeks.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Waldron (4-0) at Burr Oak (3-1), Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (3-1) at Gobles (4-0) WATCH, Alcona (4-0) at Mio (3-1) WATCH. SATURDAY Indian River Inland Lakes (4-0) at Ishpeming (3-1) WATCH.
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PHOTO Goodrich's Chase Burnett (25) follows teammate Gavin Sukup's block during a Week 3 win over Lake Fenton. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)