Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 3 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 12, 2024
It’s always “rivalry week” somewhere in Michigan, and “championship week” is still a month or more away for most football contenders.
But as we finish up the first third of the 2024 regular season, this could be “opportunity week” for several teams playing in our top regional matchups highlighted below.
All nine games are part of annual series, and most of those series have been relatively one-sided of late. But that past history has set up opportunities for some of this season’s early risers, who will try to avenge 2023 defeats, shake up league standings, continue establishing themselves as teams to watch or some combination of all three.
Stay tuned. All games listed below are tonight unless noted, and keep up with results as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page.
Bay & Thumb
Lake Fenton (2-0) at Goodrich (1-1) WATCH
Goodrich has won two straight in this series – including 34-15 a year ago – and five of the last six against the Blue Devils. This is a Flint Metro League Stars opener, and the Martians rebounded in a big way from a season-opening loss to Frankenmuth with a 47-7 win over Linden last week. Lake Fenton linebacker Hunter Carey could be key in slowing Chase Burnett and a Goodrich rushing attack that found its stride after that first-week shutout.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY New Lothrop (1-1) at Chesaning (2-0) WATCH, Grand Blanc (1-1) at Saginaw Heritage (2-0) WATCH, Muskegon Mona Shores (2-0) at Flint Hamady (2-0), Ubly (0-2) at Harbor Beach (2-0) WATCH.
Greater Detroit
Warren De La Salle Collegiate (2-0) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (2-0)
De La Salle won last year’s meeting 41-27 and owns a four-game winning streak against the Eaglets. The Pilots also have been among the most impressive teams statewide to start this season with wins over Davison and Detroit Martin Luther King, while giving up a combined 16 points over those two victories. But St. Mary’s is 2-0 for the first time since 2021, and with a 50-19 season-opening win over Portage Northern especially impressive.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids Catholic Central (2-0) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (2-0) WATCH, West Bloomfield (1-1) at Rochester Adams (2-0) WATCH, Harper Woods (1-1) at Detroit Catholic Central (2-0) WATCH, Oxford (1-1) at Clarkston (1-1) WATCH.
Mid-Michigan
Grand Ledge (2-0) at East Lansing (2-0) WATCH
While most will point to East Lansing’s Week 5 matchup with DeWitt as the game of the year in the Lansing area, Grand Ledge will attempt to break up that excitement. The Comets are seeking to avenge a 35-21 loss to the Trojans from a year ago (and have lost five of their last six in this series) and no doubt will take some tips from Hudsonville, which edged East Lansing 14-12 last week. That defeat on the road against a top team likely will end up looking like a “good loss,” however, and the Trojans’ season-opening 31-7 win over Portage Central looked even better last week as Central fell to reigning Division 3 champion Forest Hills Central by only seven points.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY McBain (2-0) at Beal City (2-0) WATCH, Montrose (1-1) at Durand (2-0) WATCH, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (2-0) at Ithaca (2-0), Mason (1-1) at Williamston (0-2) WATCH.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Gladwin (2-0) at Ogemaw Heights (2-0) WATCH
The Flying Gs are flying high again with a variety of playmakers contributing to the 99 points they’ve scored over their first two games. But this trip to see a familiar opponent should be more challenging. Gladwin and Ogemaw Heights have played three straight seasons – Gladwin winning three times but Ogemaw winning last season’s playoff rematch 28-23. This time, for the first time, they’re part of the same Jack Pine Conference division, and the Falcons also earned early buzz with a 29-13 win over reigning Division 8 champion Ubly in their season opener.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Benzie Central (1-1) at Frankfort (1-1) WATCH, Elk Rapids (1-1) at Cheboygan (1-1) WATCH, Charlevoix (1-1) at Boyne City (1-1) WATCH, East Jordan (2-0) at Kalkaska (1-1) WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Grass Lake (2-0) at Hanover-Horton (2-0) WATCH
Hanover-Horton has played some notable opponents close over the last decade, but a one-point win last week might be a sign the Comets are on their way to building a memorable 2024. They edged frequent playoff team Michigan Center, in doing so moving to 2-0 and already equaling their season win total from a year ago. Grass Lake is another playoff regular, and Hanover-Horton actually has defeated the Warriors two of the last three seasons – although Grass Lake won last year’s matchup 32-22.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Saline (2-0) at Ann Arbor Pioneer (2-0) WATCH, Adrian Madison (2-0) at Clinton (1-1) WATCH, Ida (2-0) at Hudson (1-1) WATCH, Ann Arbor Skyline (1-1) at Ann Arbor Huron (1-1) WATCH.
Southwest Corridor
Constantine (2-0) at Schoolcraft (2-0) WATCH
Constantine has won this rivalry game the last two seasons including 27-21 a year ago and rumbles into this year’s edition having outscored its first two opponents by a combined 114-14 – with a 64-6 win over 2023 playoff team Benton Harbor last week. Schoolcraft has defeated returning playoff teams both of its first two games – Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker and then Centreville – and will try to finish off last season’s comeback against the Falcons that fell just short.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ottawa Lake Whiteford (1-1) at Buchanan (1-1) WATCH, Parchment (2-0) at Dowagiac (1-1), Lawton (1-1) at Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep (2-0), Three Rivers (1-1) at Niles (1-1) WATCH.
Upper Peninsula
Negaunee (2-0) at Calumet (2-0) WATCH
The Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper is loaded again, and for the second-straight season Calumet plays Negaunee, Menominee and Kingsford in back-to-back-to-back weeks with an opportunity to establish itself in the mix as well. The Copper Kings will make the push coming off a 30-14 win over Ishpeming Westwood and will try to break a two-game losing streak against the Miners after Negaunee won last season’s meeting 20-13 on the way to eventually sharing the league title.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kingsford (2-0) at Gladstone (0-2) WATCH, Hancock (1-1) at Houghton (0-2), Menominee (2-0) at Ishpeming Westwood (1-1) WATCH. SATURDAY Gaylord (0-2) at Marquette (2-0).
West Michigan
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (2-0) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (2-0) WATCH
Forest Hills Central has owned this rivalry matchup winning all nine since the two began playing annually again in 2016. But the Huskies are coming off their winningest season since 2015 and have an opportunity to set themselves up with incredible momentum heading into a challenging league schedule that opens Week 4 with Muskegon followed by Reeths-Puffer, Mona Shores and Byron Center. FHC has won 11 straight games – with five of those, of course, coming during last season’s Division 3 title run – and has downed 2023 playoff teams Reeths-Puffer and Portage Central to start its repeat pursuit.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ada Forest Hills Eastern (2-0) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (2-0), East Kentwood (1-1) at Caledonia (2-0), Grand Rapids South Christian (2-0) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (1-1), Zeeland West (2-0) at Whitehall (1-1) WATCH.
8-Player
Norway (2-0) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (2-0) WATCH
After closing last season with a pair of losses, Forest Park has popped back up impressively winning its first two games by a combined score of 87-14. The Trojans will bring that surge into this matchup with Norway, the only opponent to defeat them during last year’s 7-1 start. The Knights won last year convincingly, 40-6, and have put up a combined 102 points over the first two weeks as they look to build on last year’s 8-3 finish, their best since moving to 8-player in 2021. Norway also won this matchup in 2022.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Portland St. Patrick (2-0) at Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (2-0), Climax-Scotts (1-1) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (1-1) WATCH, Mendon (2-0) at Concord (2-0) WATCH, Au Gres-Sims (1-1) at Rogers City (1-1).
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PHOTO Fenton defenders begin to bring down Haslett's Cornelius Malone (5) during the Tigers' 21-14 win in Week 2. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)