Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 2 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 5, 2024
It’s only Week 2. We’re just getting started.
But at least five games this week look likely to end up counted among the most notable of the regular season, statewide, when all is said and done Oct. 26. Another handful could eventually determine league championships, if past history holds again.
We’re back to our regular schedule, with six games played Thursday night, the great majority tonight and seven games set for Saturday. All listed below are today unless noted, and scores will be updated throughout the weekend on the MHSAA Scores page.
Bay & Thumb
Armada (1-0) at Croswell-Lexington (1-0) WATCH
The Blue Water Area Conference schedule begins tonight, and Croswell-Lexington owns a 19-game winning streak against Armada after claiming last year’s meeting 53-28. But the Tigers are coming off a third-straight winning season, and a third-straight victory last week over perennial power Marine City – and a historic Armada win tonight would throw a wrench into the Pioneers’ plans to take back the BWAC for the first time since 2021.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Haslett (0-1) at Fenton (1-0), Goodrich (0-1) at Linden (0-1) WATCH, Saginaw Heritage (1-0) at Midland Dow (0-1), SATURDAY Harbor Beach (1-0) at Marine City Cardinal Mooney (0-1).
Greater Detroit
Warren De La Salle Collegiate (1-0) at Detroit Martin Luther King (1-0)
This might be one of the most anticipated games statewide this year, not just one of the best of the week in Metro Detroit. The 2023 Division 2 runner-up Pilots began their pursuit of a fourth-straight trip to the Finals with a stunning defensive effort and 21-3 win over Davison last week. King is attempting to get back to the Finals this fall for the third time in four seasons after ending their run in the Division 3 Semifinals a year ago, and the Crusaders opened with a 25-21 win over Ohio powerhouse Cleveland Heights. King and De La Salle last faced each other in a 2017 Semifinal.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY West Bloomfield (1-0) at Birmingham Groves (1-0) WATCH, Clarkston (0-1) at Southfield Arts & Technology (1-0) WATCH, Jackson Lumen Christi (1-0) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (1-0) WATCH, Muskegon Mona Shores (1-0) at River Rouge (1-0) WATCH.
Mid-Michigan
DeWitt (1-0) at Mason (1-0)
After falling to DeWitt five straight meetings over the eight seasons, Mason defeated the Panthers twice in 2023 – 42-23 during the regular season and 42-7 in a District Final – on the way to finishing Division 3 runner-up. The Bulldogs graduated nearly all of their starters from that run, but the new crew joined four-year starting quarterback Cason Carswell in downing Holt 26-7 to open this fall. DeWitt has nearly its entire lineup back from a year ago and also one of the top quarterbacks both in the Lansing area and statewide – Elliott Larner, who threw for four touchdowns and ran for four in the Panthers’ 69-42 win over Haslett.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Lansing Catholic (1-0) at Lansing Sexton (0-1) WATCH, Olivet (1-0) at Portland (1-0), Hastings (1-0) at Williamston (0-1) WATCH, Bath (0-1) at Pewamo-Westphalia (1-0) WATCH.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Kingsley (0-1) at Gaylord (0-1) WATCH
Forget for a minute that both fell in openers last week. Gaylord is coming off its best season since 2002 after finishing 11-1, and Kingsley is the reigning Division 6 champion with one of its two losses last fall in a 42-39 classic against the Blue Devils. Back to last week, Kingsley did lose 24-22 but it was a rematch of its 2023 Semifinal win over Reed City. Gaylord’s defeat came against longtime former league foe Traverse City West, but the defense that gave up only 14.5 points per game last season remained on point, allowing just six to the Titans.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Maple City Glen Lake (1-0) at Frankfort (1-0) WATCH, Boyne City (0-1) at Elk Rapids (1-0), Parma Western (1-0) at Traverse City Central (1-0) WATCH. SATURDAY Lawton (1-0) at Traverse City St. Francis (1-0) WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Saline (1-0) at Dexter (1-0)
The Southeastern Conference Red season also begins tonight, and with the matchup that eventually determined last year’s league championship. That went to Saline, thanks to a 41-25 victory over Dexter, and the Hornets opened last week by doubling up Brighton 41-20. The Dreadnaughts actually come into this rematch on a higher note than a year ago after edging Livonia Franklin 27-26 last week, avenging their 33-27 loss to Franklin from last season’s opener.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Whitmore Lake (1-0) at Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (1-0), Addison (1-0) at Manchester (1-0) WATCH, Three Rivers (1-0) at Adrian (0-1) WATCH, Jonesville (1-0) at Napoleon (0-1).
Southwest Corridor
White Pigeon (1-0) at Buchanan (1-0) WATCH
More statewide fanfare should be given to White Pigeon’s fantastic run over the last three seasons, as the Chiefs went a combined 29-7 with three trips to Division 8 Regional Finals. They opened in dominant fashion 52-14 over Reading last week, but get a Buchanan team that also has been quietly solid with a combined 15-6 record over the last two seasons – and with two of last year’s defeats by seven points apiece. The Bucks opened last week with a 32-6 rumbling over Saugatuck, which avenged a 25-14 opening loss to the Trailblazers from a year ago.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY St. Joseph (1-0) at Edwardsburg (1-0), Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (1-0) at Portage Central (0-1) WATCH, Battle Creek Central (0-1) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (1-0), Midland (1-0) at Portage Northern (0-1) WATCH.
Upper Peninsula
Calumet (1-0) at Ishpeming Westwood (1-0) WATCH
Both of these teams are looking for bounce-back seasons, and off on the right foot. Calumet went 3-6 a year ago, its first sub-.500 finish since 2013, but opened with a 50-0 shutout of West Iron County last week. Westwood won once in 2023, its fewest victories since going 2-7 in 2016, but opened last week with a 36-12 win over Bark River-Harris, which finished 5-4 a year ago and defeated the Patriots 50-14 to start last season. Calumet defeated Westwood in last season’s matchup 42-22.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hancock (1-0) at Menominee (1-0) WATCH, Iron Mountain (1-0) at Bark River-Harris (0-1) WATCH, Houghton (0-1) at Kingsford (1-0) WATCH, Gladstone (0-1) at Negaunee (1-0) WATCH.
West Michigan
Muskegon (0-1) at Rockford (1-0) WATCH
West Michigan has several intriguing matchups this week, especially in places with new coaches this fall. But this one always will rise to the highest level of statewide interest. Rockford won their season-opening clash last year 27-7, and Muskegon actually started last year 0-2 before winning 12 straight games and the Division 2 title. Both programs surely benefit greatly from these mega matchups early, and that’s key perspective as the Big Reds also opened this season with a loss, 28-13 to Zeeland West. Rockford is a combined 32-3 over the last three seasons and may be on the verge of something even bigger this fall after defeating Detroit Cass Tech 30-23 in their opener.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY East Kentwood (1-0) at Byron Center (1-0), Grand Rapids South Christian (1-0) at East Grand Rapids (1-0) WATCH, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (1-0) at Jenison (1-0), Caledonia (1-0) at Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (0-1) WATCH.
8-Player
Martin (1-0) at Bridgman (1-0)
With Martin the reigning two-time Division 1 champion, and Bridgman building a combined 35-game winning streak going back to 2020 (but with an enrollment too large to compete in the 8-player playoffs), it’s safe to say these have been two of the elite handful of teams in the state to start this decade. And their matchups have been must-see; Bridgman won 35-34 in 2022 and 14-12 last season. Although Bridgman also faces 2023 Division 1 runner-up Indian River Inland Lakes in Week 4, this could prove for both to be their biggest game of the regular season again.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Morrice (1-0) at Merrill (1-0) WATCH, Lake Linden-Hubbell (0-1) at Munising (1-0) WATCH. SATURDAY Newberry (0-1) vs. Climax-Scotts (0-1) at Gaylord, Marion (1-0) at Onekama (1-0) WATCH.
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PHOTO A Montague ball carrier attempts to break free last week from multiple Forest Hills Eastern defenders, including Jordan Shabazz (23). FHE won the opener 48-7. (Photo by Michigan Sports Photo.)