Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2023 11-Player Semifinals Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 17, 2023
No flashy or fact-packed introduction is necessary this weekend to tie together the remaining 11-player football games across the state.
Saturday's winners advance to Ford Field, and that says it all.
See below for a glance at all 16 Semifinals. All kick off at 1 p.m. except for Menominee/North Muskegon, which begins at 3 p.m. Follow along in person or watch all of them on MHSAA.tv, and keep up with the scores as they come in on the Football Playoff Scoreboard.
Division 1
Davison (12-0) vs. Belleville (12-0) at Novi – WATCH
Belleville’s winning streak is up to 37 games, and the Tigers have won all three playoff games by at least 41 points. Junior quarterback Bryce Underwood is up to 2,967 yards and 37 touchdowns on 159-for-232 passing. Davison will try to limit Belleville after holding Rockford to 14 points last week in arguably its most impressive defensive performance. A running game led by junior AJ Hill (1,488 yards, 19 TDs rushing) could take some off some of the pressure.
Southfield Arts & Technology (11-1) vs. West Bloomfield (10-2) at Troy – WATCH
Southfield A&T gets a chance to avenge its lone loss, as West Bloomfield won their Week 8 meeting 31-20. Senior quarterback Isaiah Marshall has been one of the most dynamic playmakers in the state for multiple seasons. West Bloomfield avenged one of its two losses this season with last week’s 21-20 win over Clarkston and has one of the top pass combos in the state with senior quarterback Requez Nance (2,497 yards/21 TDs) and junior receiver Elisha Durham (1,010 yards, 10 TDs).
Division 2
East Lansing (10-2) vs. Muskegon (10-2) at Greenville – WATCH
East Lansing has won 10 straight games to reach its first Semifinal since 2007. A balanced offense is enjoying arguably its most impressive stretch, and a big drive is a running game led by juniors Jace Clarizio (1,209 yards, 9.0 per carry, 16 TDs) and Dwataye Sams Jr. (965 yards, 9.8 per carry, 13 TDs). Muskegon has run for 3,950 yards this season in making the Semifinals for the seventh time in eight seasons, with a dynamic group putting up similar numbers. Senior quarterback M’Khi Guy (1,636 yards/23 TDs) is averaging 10.9 yards per carry, senior running back Jakob Price (842/17) is averaging 8.2 and senior slot Destin Piggee (951/10) is averaging 14.9 yards per carry.
Waterford Mott (10-2) vs. Warren De La Salle Collegiate (10-2) at Troy Athens – WATCH
The two-time reigning champion Pilots graduated their offensive leader for those two title runs but are keyed by another talented dual-threat quarterback in junior Sante Gasperoni (903 yards/14 TDs rushing, 1,876 yards/20 TDs passing). De La Salle’s only losses were to Davison in the season opener and Ohio power Toledo Central Catholic. Mott is making its first trip to a Semifinal paced by another skilled signal-caller with massive numbers – senior Kalieb Osborne had run for 1,865 yards and 25 touchdowns and thrown for 3,532 yards and 35 scores.
Division 3
Zeeland West (9-3) vs. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (11-1) at Holland West Ottawa – WATCH
Forest Hills Central is one more win from returning to Ford Field after finishing Division 2 runner-up a year ago, and senior quarterback Mason McDonald is a catalyst again after stepping into the lineup due to an injury for the latter part of last year’s run. He’s thrown for 1,398 yards and 18 touchdowns and run for 649 yards and nine scores. West’s first Semifinal trip since 2015 has been driven in part by another balanced rushing attack that’s piled up 3,258 yards with senior Rolando Robelin leading the way with 762 and 15 TDs on the ground.
Detroit Martin Luther King (7-5) vs. Mason (12-0) at Chelsea – WATCH
This is a rematch of Semifinals from the last two seasons, both won by King as the Crusaders went on to back-to-back Division 3 championships. Mason will try to take its turn this time with nearly the entire lineup back from last season including four-year running back AJ Martel, who has gained 1,293 yards (9.0 per carry) and 25 touchdowns this fall and is the program’s all-time leading rusher. King’s losses were to Division 1 Cass Tech twice and three out-of-state powers, and the defense can counter with a standout senior end in Marquise White, who has 12 sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
Division 4
Grand Rapids South Christian (9-3) vs. Portland (12-0) at Ada Forest Hills Eastern – WATCH
Reigning Division 4 champion South Christian is coming off a 55-35 win over Big Rapids and its highest scoring output since opening night, and senior receiver Jake Vermaas has followed up a monster Finals performance last year with a monster 2023 catching 79 passes for 1,485 yards and 19 touchdowns as junior Carson Vis has directed the attack. Portland’s task got taller when leading rusher Caden Thelen (1,496 yards/23 TDs rushing) was lost with an injury at the end of the Regional Final. But the Raiders have run for 3,323 yards total, and junior quarterback Dominic Novara has provided another threat throwing for 1,008 yards and 16 touchdowns – or a score on every third completion.
Goodrich (11-1) vs. Harper Woods (9-3) at Livonia Franklin – WATCH
Goodrich also is a game away from a Ford Field return after finishing Division 4 runner-up a year ago, and the Martians have already outscored last year’s team thanks in part to the powerful running of junior Chase Burnett (1,746 yards/23 TDs rushing), who has gained nearly two-thirds of the team’s yardage on the ground. By now, no one should be sleeping on Harper Woods despite its three losses – those defeats came to Division 1 Southfield A&T and Lake Orion and Division 2 Birmingham Groves, and wins over Clarkston and Roseville certainly were attention grabbers. Sophomore quarterback Nate Rocheleau has completed 71 percent of his passes for 1,836 yards and 23 scores.
Division 5
Frankenmuth (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-1) at Ithaca – WATCH
These two met in the 2020 Division 5 Final and a 2021 Semifinal, and Frankenmuth then finished runner-up a year ago with GRCC losing to eventual champion Gladwin in a Semifinal on the other side of the bracket. The Cougars can count wins over South Christian, River Rouge and Grand Rapids West Catholic among their most impressive, with senior Kellen Russell-Dixon averaging 10.9 yards per carry for the season (with 1,560 yards/22 TDs rushing total). Frankenmuth counters with a defense that’s given up only 807 rushing yards despite facing Goodrich (see above) and a powerful attack from Kingsford among others. Senior quarterback Jack Rich has stepped in to lead the Eagles with 1,184 yards and 19 scores rushing while throwing for another eight TDs.
Flat Rock (9-3) vs. Corunna (12-0) at Ypsilanti Lincoln – WATCH
Flat Rock is playing in its first Semifinal since 1976, and Corunna its first since 1996. The Rams bounced back from a midseason 1-3 stretch to score a combined 201 points over their last four wins, which were all by 30 or more. Corunna has given up only 94 points all season – never more than 18 in a game – and only a combined 42 over three playoff wins despite playing undefeated opponents in two of them. The senior Bower twins are playing major roles; Wyatt, the quarterback, has thrown for 2,191 yards and 25 touchdowns and run for 943 and 15, respectively; while split end Tarick has caught 41 passes for 1,289 yards (30.2 per catch) and 18 scores.
Division 6
Reed City (9-3) vs. Kingsley (10-2) at Cadillac – WATCH
Reed City’s repeat run to the Semifinals has come after a 1-3 start – including a 46-12 season-opening loss to Kingsley. But the Coyotes have reached 40 points six times during their eight-game winning streak and have pounded defenses with senior running backs Max Hammond (1,343 yards/18 TDs rushing) and John Ondrus (1,365/13). Kingsley has stayed in stride, with its 583 points this season more than the Stags scored in any of their other three 10-win seasons over the last five years – and even more than they scored in going 12-1 in 2019. Senior Eli Graves has run for 1,654 yards and 20 scores, caught five touchdown passes and scored twice on kickoff returns.
Ovid-Elsie (8-4) vs. Almont (11-1) at Grand Blanc – WATCH
After stunning contender Constantine in last week’s Regional Final, Ovid-Elsie takes on another opponent that might be considered the team to beat. Almont’s only loss was Week 9 to Division 5 Ogemaw Heights, and the Raiders have impressed including edging another favorite in Warren Michigan Collegiate in the District Final. Junior Chase Battani leads the rushing attack with 1,047 yards and 15 touchdowns and also has 85 tackles with 11 tackles for loss at linebacker. Ovid-Elsie similarly has a balanced offensive attack, but junior quarterback Tryce Tokar helps make it so throwing for 1,224 yards and 18 scores and rushing for a team-high 814 yards and 13 TDs.
Division 7
Menominee (10-2) vs. North Muskegon (12-0) at Gaylord – WATCH
North Muskegon’s first Semifinal since 1986 has come off two wins by a combined four points, and the Norseman take on a Menominee team that’s had only one single-digit game – win or lose – in making its longest run since finishing Division 5 runner-up in 2016. These Maroons are more balanced than the run-heavy teams that many associate with the program, but they still dominate on the ground with senior Landan Bardowski leading a 3,200-yard rush attack with 1,343 and 25 touchdowns. North Muskegon’s rushing and passing yardage and touchdown totals are nearly identical, but junior quarterback James Young definitely pops off the page with 2,460 yards and 31 scores through the air.
Millington (12-0) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (11-1) at Westland John Glenn – WATCH
The reigning champion Titans are a three-point Week 8 loss to Division 3 Gaylord from an undefeated season so far, and they’ve done it in part with one of their most impressive defenses in at least a decade giving up just 7.1 points per game. Millington’s defense has been similarly sturdy, giving up only nine per game during a run that’s included two one-point wins. Junior Dallas Walsh is among those hoping to break through for the Cardinals; he’s run for 1,153 yards and 16 touchdowns this fall.
Division 8
Beal City (11-1) vs. Ubly (12-0) at Mt. Morris – WATCH
This is Ubly’s fifth-straight Semifinal, and the only team to keep the Bearcats from Ford Field the two years they fell short was Beal City with a one-point win in the 2019 matchup and five-point victory in 2021. Ubly has run for more than 4,100 yards led by senior Canden Peruski, who is averaging 11.7 per carry for 1,485 total to go with 21 touchdowns on the ground – he’s one of five Ubly rushers with at least 10 rushing scores. Beal City is giving up only 8.6 points per game and has an offensive playmaker in senior Jamisen Latham, who has run for 827 yards and 10 scores and also caught 10 touchdown passes.
Riverview Gabriel Richard (8-4) vs. Ottawa Lake Whiteford (12-0) at Adrian College – WATCH
Reigning Division 8 champion Whiteford has won 26 straight games since falling in a 2021 Semifinal, and the Bobcats are doing it again this fall with a defense giving up nine points per game and with five players scoring between 8-17 touchdowns and freshman quarterback Tre Eitniear throwing for 949 yards and 14 scores. Gabriel Richard will attempt to transform its first Semifinal appearance into its first Ford Field trip with a similarly-balanced attack led by junior quarterback Nick Sobush (1,256 yards/13 TDs passing, 8 TDs rushing) and junior running back Joey Calhoun (858 yards/16 TDs rushing, 5 TDs receiving).
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PHOTO Ubly's Seth Maurer (30) takes on a pair of Ithaca defenders during last week's Regional Final win. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)