Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2023 Playoff Week 3 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 10, 2023
By Saturday night, the first two MHSAA Football Finals matchups will be decided.
Four 8-Player Semifinals earlier that day will determine which teams advance to play one more time Nov. 18 at Northern Michigan University’s Superior Dome, and we detail this weekend’s matchups below.
We’re also down to the final eight teams in all eight 11-player divisions as Regional championships will determine the 32 that will take another step closer to spending Thanksgiving weekend at Ford Field.
Of 40 games played this weekend, 36 will be broadcast on MHSAA.tv, and continue to monitor the Football Playoff Scoreboard including for 11-Player Semifinal times and locations as those are determined.
8-Player Division 1
Indian River Inland Lakes (10-1) at Pickford (10-1), Saturday - WATCH
Pickford is playing in its first Semifinal since the Division 2 championship season of 2019, and bounced back nicely after losing its Week 9 game 42-10 to St. Ignace with a pair of rematch wins over Rudyard and Norway. Junior Tommy Storey tells it, rushing for 1,851 yards and 31 touchdowns and throwing for 794 and 12, respectively. Inland Lakes, however, edged St. Ignace 40-36 last week to advance – avenging a Week 4 loss to the Saints – and also is paced by a standout junior run/pass threat. Aidan Fenstermaker has run for 1,567 yards and 23 scores and thrown for 996 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Martin (9-2) at Kingston (9-2), Saturday - WATCH
Martin graduated 11 seniors, including an all-state quarterback, from last season’s Division 1 championship team. But the Clippers are again one step from playing for the title, led by another standout signal-caller. Junior Gavin Meyers has rushed for 1,144 yards and 11 touchdowns and thrown for 787 yards and eight more scores, and Martin is coming off avenging a 37-point Week 4 loss to Gobles with a 28-6 District Final win. Kingston is back in the Semifinals for the first time since 2019, and also having avenged an early defeat (by 18) with a 26-0 District Final win over Brown City. Senior Owen Corlis has piled up 1,412 yards and 23 touchdowns on the ground and connected on 56 percent of his passes with 10 – nearly half of those completions – going for scores. He also has three return TDs.
8-Player Division 2
Lake Linden-Hubbell (8-3) at Marion (10-0), Saturday - WATCH
Marion ran into eventual Division 2 champion Powers North Central in Semifinals the last three seasons, including while also undefeated a year ago, and will attempt to take the next step with a defense that has given up only 40 points over eight games on the field (two wins were by forfeit). Senior Gavin Prielipp is the leading rusher and scored 11 touchdowns rushing, eight receiving, three off interceptions and one apiece on kickoff and punt returns. Lake Linden-Hubbell is making its first Semifinal appearance since 1997 in 11-player and likely will try to break through the Eagles’ wall with senior quarterback Danny Marcotte (1,234 yards/20 TDs rushing ) and senior running back Sam Roberts (1,165/15).
Deckerville (9-2) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (11-0), Saturday - WATCH
Lenawee Christian has topped 60 points for the second time in three seasons, scoring more than 50 in seven games, with a variety of playmakers but quarterback Sam Lutz setting the pace. The senior has thrown for 1,727 yards and 29 touchdowns, rushed for 868 and 24, respectively, and also scored off interception and kickoff returns. Deckerville is one of the original 8-player powers and back in the Semifinals for the first time since 2017 after one-score playoff wins over Morrice and Portland St. Patrick. Junior Hunter Garza quarterbacks an attack that’s run for more than 3,000 yards, while he’s passed for 1,341 and 24 touchdowns.
11-Player Division 1
Davison (11-0) at Rockford (11-0), Saturday - WATCH
It’s difficult to not look ahead, knowing that one of these undefeated teams could next week face two-time reigning Division 1 champion Belleville in a Semifinal – if the Tigers defeat Northville on the other side of the bracket. But Davison and Rockford surely aren’t looking past anything; they last faced off in a 2020 Semifinal, won by the Cardinals, and both are seeking a first Regional title since that season. Both teams are keyed by standout offensive playmakers, and Rockford’s defense has been one of its best over the last decade giving up only 10 points per game despite facing Muskegon, Mona Shores and Caledonia among six playoff teams total during the regular season. The deciding matchup could be the Rams trying to slow down a Davison attack that has scored 44 or more points seven times.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Clarkston (6-5) at Western Bloomfield (9-2) - WATCH, Southfield Arts & Technology (10-1) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-2) - WATCH. SATURDAY Northville (10-1) at Belleville (11-0) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 2
Saturday Heritage (9-2) at Muskegon (9-2), Saturday
Muskegon is as close to a regular at this stage of the playoffs as any program in Michigan; the Big Reds will be playing in a Regional Final for the 11th time over the last 12 seasons as they continue to pursue a return trip to Ford Field. Heritage is much newer to the experience after winning its first District title since 2001 – but that just sets up an opportunity to add another incredible chapter to an already memorable run. The Hawks boast the state’s all-time leader in receiving touchdowns in Braylon Isom, who caught his 49th and 50th to tie and break the record in the District Final win. But Heritage also lost standout running back Ty Robertson to injury two weeks ago and now must stop or keep up with a Muskegon offense that’s reached 40 points in five of its last six games.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Byron Center (10-1) at East Lansing (9-2) - WATCH, Roseville (8-3) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (9-2) - WATCH, Waterford Mott (9-2) at Gibraltar Carlson (10-1) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 3
Mason (11-0) at Walled Lake Western (10-1), Friday - WATCH
The setup for this rematch includes a rare mathematical oddity of the playoff system in that Mason went to Western in Week 8 and won 30-7, and now must return for this Regional Final. Western, with a schedule of mostly Division 2 opponents, has the home game after holding onto the top spot in Division 2 playoff-point average while Mason – playing a Division 3-heavy schedule – finished third on that list. The good news for the Bulldogs, however, is they know they can win this on the road – and the offense is continuing to churn with that first Western matchup the only game over the last six in which Mason didn’t score at least 41 points. That said, we’ve once again seen these playoffs a number of rematches flip, with multiple postseason winners coming back after losing big the first time around.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Gaylord (11-0) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (10-1) - WATCH, Detroit Martin Luther King (6-5) at River Rouge (7-4) - WATCH. SATURDAY Zeeland West (8-3) at Parma Western (10-1).
11-Player Division 4
Portland (11-0) at Niles (10-1), Friday - WATCH
On the surface, this appears to be an undefeated Portland team with seven double-digit win seasons over the last nine, hitting the road seeking to return to the Semifinals after most recently making them in 2021 and 2018, on the way to face an up-and-coming Niles program that just won its first District title. But while all true, Niles is led by coach Scot Shaw, formerly of nearly two decades at Three Rivers and leader of its Division 4 championship team in 2003. He has the Vikings learning this playoff thing fast, but there will be some unfamiliarity regardless because Niles’ first two postseason wins were Wolverine Conference rematches. Portland, under another longtime leader in John Novara, has traveled this path and will be playing in its third-straight Regional Final.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Big Rapids (10-1) at Grand Rapids South Christian (8-3) - WATCH, Haslett (8-3) at Goodrich (10-1) - WATCH. SATURDAY Carleton Airport (10-1) at Harper Woods (8-3).
11-Player Division 5
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-1) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (11-0), Friday - WATCH
After playing last season in different divisions, these two are matched up again, and both enter this meeting undefeated against in-state opponents – GRCC’s lone loss came in Week 1 against Chicago Loyola. The challenges otherwise for both have been few. The Cougars defeated reigning Division 4 champion Grand Rapids South Christian 21-12 in Week 8, but have won all of their remaining games by at least 32 points. West Catholic’s 17-14 win over Division 3 Coopersville in Week 3 was its only game closer than 26 points, and the Falcons have given up a combined 13 points over their last five games with two shutouts to start the postseason.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Macomb Lutheran North (9-2) at Corunna (11-0) - WATCH, Flat Rock (8-3) at Detroit Southeastern (8-3). SATURDAY Kingsford (10-1) at Frankenmuth (10-1) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 6
Gladstone (9-2) at Kingsley (9-2), Friday - WATCH
Only eight teams remain in all of these 11-player divisions, and perhaps no division seems wider open than Division 6, with these two on the same side of the bracket with two more that have lost three games this fall. Kingsley won a Regional title as recently as 2019 and is playing in its fourth Regional Final over the last six seasons. Gladstone is playing in a Regional Final for the second straight after losing last year to Negaunee, the eventual Division 6 runner-up. The Braves defeated Negaunee last week, and another win would send them to the Semifinals for the first time since 1985.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Midland Bullock Creek (8-3) at Reed City (8-3) - WATCH, Detroit Edison (8-3) at Almont (10-1) - WATCH. SATURDAY Ovid-Elsie (7-4) at Constantine (10-1) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia (10-1) vs. North Muskegon (11-0) at Muskegon Oakridge, Saturday - WATCH
A 17-14 opening-weekend win over annual Finals contender Pewamo-Westphalia announced statewide that North Muskegon might be set up for a special season. And so it’s been, with last week’s 27-24 District clincher over Lawton the Norsemen’s first single-digit victory since that Week 1 defeat of the Pirates. P-W hasn’t lost again, or had another game decided by fewer than 13 points. The defense especially has resembled the group that helped drive Division 7 titles in 2019 and 2021, giving up 8.6 points per game and double digits only three times. North Muskegon has been held to fewer than 27 only one other game this fall, an 18-7 win over rival Ravenna.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Montrose (8-3) at Millington (11-0) - WATCH, Clinton (10-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-1) - WATCH. SATURDAY McBain (7-4) at Menominee (9-2) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 8
Ithaca (11-0) at Ubly (11-0), Saturday - WATCH
This is the level of showdown that immediately came to mind when Ithaca slotted as one of the two largest schools in Division 8 after playoff runs in Divisions 5, 6 and 7 over the last decade. After another dominant regular season, Ithaca has navigated one-point wins over Fowler and New Lothrop to start the playoffs. The Yellowjackets feature their most potent offensive attack since 2017 and still have given up only 9.2 points per game after allowing a combined 55 over the last two weeks. Ubly’s last three seasons have ended at Ford Field twice and the Semifinals in 2021, and this team has performed similarly keeping pace with last season’s record-setting offense and allowing only 9.5 points per game.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Iron Mountain (11-0) at Beal City (10-1) - WATCH, White Pigeon (11-0) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (11-0) - WATCH. SATURDAY Riverview Gabriel Richard (7-4) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-2) - WATCH.
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PHOTO Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central defenders converge during a Division 3 District Final win over Mount Pleasant. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)