Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2023 Week 1 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
August 24, 2023
This Michigan high school football season is heating up in a hurry.
Of course, this is always one of the most highly-anticipated opening weekends on the school sports schedule – and we kick off this fall’s 14-week run with 493 teams playing 11-player football and 106 playing 8-player.
More literally concerning the heat wave affecting much of the state, the list of games changing days or kickoff times as a precaution is growing; check out the MHSAA Scores page for updates as we receive them.
More than 250 varsity games are scheduled to be broadcast this weekend on MHSAA.tv, including all 16 being played at Wayne State as part of the Xenith Prep Kickoff Classic, University of Michigan as part of the Battle at the Big House and Kettering University as part of the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic. Click the names of the events for specific broadcast landing pages for those showcases.
Here’s a look at some of the matchups with the most intrigue from all over the state, including headliners from the three events referred to above. What you see below may not represent all of the schedule changes we are receiving, but again follow the MHSAA Scores page for updated dates and times – and all weekend for scores as they’re submitted.
Xenith Prep Kickoff Classic – Wayne State University – Tom Adams Field
Belleville (14-0) vs. River Rouge (5-4), Friday
Expectations couldn’t be higher for Belleville, which has won the last two Division 1 championships and 25 straight games and returns quarterback Bryce Underwood and running back/linebacker Jeremiah Beasley among standouts, and that makes this 7 p.m. kickoff arguably the most highly-anticipated in the state. But River Rouge was much better than its record last season, losing to two eventual Finals champions over its final three games as it finished its first season under a new coach – a scenario Belleville finds itself in this fall.
More Xenith games: THURSDAY Walled Lake Western (9-2) vs. Waterford Mott (8-3), Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (7-3) vs. West Bloomfield (8-2). FRIDAY Allen Park (7-4) vs. Taylor (4-5). SATURDAY Detroit Cass Tech (9-4) vs. Southfield Arts & Technology (8-3), Detroit Martin Luther King (10-3) vs. Cincinnati St. Xavier (5-7).
Battle at the Big House – University of Michigan – Michigan Stadium
Goodrich (12-2) vs. Frankenmuth (13-1), Friday
Both finished their 2022 seasons at Ford Field, Frankenmuth the runner-up in Division 5 after a last-second Gladwin game-winning field goal and Goodrich runner-up in Division 4 after Grand Rapids South Christian dealt the Martians their only loss since opening night. That opening night had seen Frankenmuth defeat Goodrich 27-2, and several contributors from that game will find themselves in bigger roles as this season begins on a big stage.
More Big House games: THURSDAY Lake Orion (4-6) vs. Livonia Stevenson (4-5), South Lyon East (7-3) vs. White Lake Lakeland (4-5), Lapeer (7-3) vs. Ann Arbor Huron (5-5). FRIDAY Caledonia (12-2) vs. Romeo (8-3), Clarkston (10-3) vs. Northville (8-3).
Vehicle City Gridiron Classic – Kettering University – Atwood Stadium
Davison (9-2) vs. Warren De La Salle Collegiate (13-1), Friday
Like Belleville, De La Salle is on a two-season championship streak after claiming the last two Division 2 titles by large margins, and the Pilots’ only loss over the last two years was by a point last September to league opponent Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice. There will be new faces in key places in these lineups as well, especially after De La Salle graduated its quarterback of the last three seasons and Davison has a new starter at that position as well.
More Vehicle City games: THURSDAY Mt. Morris (2-7) vs. Clio (2-7). FRIDAY Flint Hamady (10-2) vs. Harper Woods Chandler Park (4-5), Flint Carman-Ainsworth (2-7) vs. Flint Kearsley (3-6).
Bay & Thumb
Mount Pleasant (9-2) at Saginaw Heritage (7-3)
After spending most of the last two decades as part of a one-division Saginaw Valley League or in the same division when the league was split, these two are heading into a second-straight season in different divisions with Mount Pleasant a reigning co-champion in the North (now Blue) and Heritage coming off finishing third in the Red. They didn’t face each other last season, but the Oilers had won this matchup nine straight times before that – although expectations are rising in Saginaw Township as the Hawks won their most games last season since 2006.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-4) at Ubly (13-1), Saginaw Swan Valley (7-4) at Croswell-Lexington (7-3), Millington (10-2) at Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (10-2). FRIDAY Harbor Beach (8-2) at Marine City Cardinal Mooney (8-3).
Greater Detroit
Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (5-6) at Roseville (8-3)
Roseville has posted its winningest two seasons over the last two years and rolled through the second half of 2022 before running into eventual Division 2 champion De La Salle in a District Final. A win over Rice in this season opener would be considered another serious step, as the Warriors were much better than their record last year may have seemed to indicate. Rice, as noted above, is the only team to defeat De La Salle over the last two seasons.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Parma Western (6-4) at Dearborn Divine Child (9-3). FRIDAY Rochester Adams (10-2) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (5-6).
Mid-Michigan
Haslett (6-4) at DeWitt (9-4)
The rivalry got some juice again last season at Michigan Stadium, as the Panthers hung on for a 21-14 victory. Two sets of siblings will be the main focus as this one kicks off. Haslett will pursue its first win in the series since 2005 paced by dynamic playmaker Nakai Amachree, who returned a kick and a punt for touchdowns in last year’s meeting, and younger brother Kory will be tough to stop as well. Junior twins Elliott and Abram Larner, meanwhile, shined as sophomores on a DeWitt team that reached the Division 3 Semifinals in November.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Saline (8-3) at Brighton (8-2), Holt (7-4) at Mason (12-1), Portland (10-2) at Ovid-Elsie (8-3).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Midland (10-2) at Cadillac (5-5)
These two were league champions last season, Midland sharing in the SVL North and Cadillac winning the Big North Conference while also playing one of the most crushing nonleague schedules in the state – five of the Vikings’ opponents finished the regular season 8-1. Midland won last year’s matchup, 27-21 at home, but this time must make the trip west.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (13-1) at Charlevoix (8-2), Standish-Sterling (8-2) at Boyne City (9-1), Traverse City West (2-7) at Gaylord (6-4).
Southeast & Border
Livonia Franklin (10-2) at Dexter (12-1), Friday
Dexter graduated serious star power from the group that produced the program’s longest playoff run and just missed making the Division 2 Final. But long forgotten are the days when the Dreadnaughts were among the last teams seeking to make the playoffs for the first time – and after five straight postseason appearances, this fall will provide another chance to show how far the program has come. Franklin has made the playoffs eight straight seasons and also is coming off one of its best as it reached double-digit wins last fall for the fourth time – making this one of the most intriguing season openers statewide outside of the three weekend showcases.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Warren Michigan Collegiate (10-2) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (6-6), Whitmore Lake (6-3) at Manchester (6-5). FRIDAY Tecumseh (10-1) at Jackson Northwest (5-4).
Southwest Corridor
Grand Rapids West Catholic (13-1) at Edwardsburg (11-2), Friday
This is another one many have had circled, especially after West Catholic last season won the matchup 28-20 – handing Edwardsburg its first regular-season defeat since 2017. The Falcons went on to win the Division 6 championship, while the Eddies reached the Division 4 Semifinals and were a touchdown from returning to Ford Field as well. West Catholic graduated much of its offensive firepower but returns important leaders on defense, and they’ll be tested right away by an Edwardsburg offense that has topped 4,000 yards rushing eight of the last nine seasons (with COVID-shortened 2020 the only exception during that time.)
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Lawton (9-3) at Benton Harbor (4-5), East Lansing (8-4) at Portage Central (4-5). FRIDAY Portage Northern (7-4) at Vicksburg (5-5).
Upper Peninsula
Houghton (6-4) at Iron Mountain (11-2)
These two are playing a nonleague game this time after finishing fourth and second, respectively, in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper in 2022. Iron Mountain reached the Division 8 Semifinals last fall and has moved into the Iron division of the league this season as the West-PAC has added three teams to the Copper from the Great Northern Conference. Houghton remains in the Copper and will be looking to avenge last season’s 28-6 loss to the Mountaineers, which was followed by the Gremlins’ best finish since 2013.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Ishpeming (4-6) at Negaunee (13-1). FRIDAY Bark River-Harris (8-3) at Ishpeming Westwood (4-5), Marquette (3-6) at Gladstone (9-3).
West Michigan
Rockford (10-1) at Muskegon (11-3), Friday
A few others listed above are in contention, but this has to be the most highly-anticipated opening-weekend matchup outside of the showcase events. League opponents most recently in 2011, these west-side powers haven’t faced each other since 2013. Muskegon returned to Ford Field last season, finishing Division 3 runner-up, and returns the majority of its offensive playmakers from that lineup including quarterback M’Khi Guy and running back Jakob Price. Rockford’s only loss last fall was by a point in a District Final to eventual Division 1 runner-up Caledonia, and the Rams also return a major player on both sides of the ball in senior Ryan Ahern.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Hudsonville Unity Christian (6-5) at Whitehall (11-1), New Lothrop (10-3) at Muskegon Catholic Central (8-3), Cedar Springs (5-5) at East Grand Rapids (4-6). FRIDAY Kingsley (7-3) at Reed City (11-2).
8-Player
Martin (11-2) at Colon (10-1), Friday
These have become two of the strongest programs in 8-player football, but they head into this fall with some unfamiliarity. Martin is 40-6 in 8-player football and the reigning Division 1 champion, but graduated much of its nucleus from that title-winning team. Colon is 51-7 in 8-player but enters with a new coach for the first time since making the format switch in 2018. The Magi’s only loss last season came by two points in a Regional Final to eventual Division 2 runner-up Mendon.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Brown City (10-2) at Peck (7-3), Gaylord St. Mary (8-3) at Pickford (6-3). FRIDAY Morrice (9-3) at Breckenridge (8-3), Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (8-0) at Climax-Scotts (8-2), Rudyard (6-3) at Munising (11-1).
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PHOTO Mount Pleasant takes the field during the 2022 season. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)