Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 9 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 24, 2022
Every league champion has been crowned. All 144 playoff pairings are set.
This fall seemed to fly by, but the football regular season is complete. See below for several of the final steps we took to get there across the state during Week 9.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Davison 28, Lapeer 6 The Cardinals (8-1) clinched the outright Saginaw Valley League South championship as this was a winner-take-all matchup. The victory also avenged a 2021 loss to the Lightning (7-2), and Davison’s defense arguably was the star of this show by limiting a Lapeer attack averaging 39 points per game in one of its most impressive performances of the fall. These two could meet again in a Division 1 District Final. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
Here are the highlights of the Davison at Lapeer football game that aired on Football Fridays Overtime powered by STATE CHAMPS! on @BallySportsDET.@BraylenHimm23 | @DavCardFootball pic.twitter.com/ClNCN2hMZM
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) October 23, 2022
Watch list Gladwin 35, Standish Sterling 7 The Flying G’s (9-0) won one of three matchups of unbeaten teams this weekend, and in doing so finished their second-straight perfect regular season. Standish-Sterling (7-1) has plenty to boast as well as it takes a combined 17-4 record over the last two seasons into these playoffs.
On the move Croswell-Lexington 41, Freeland 34 The Pioneers (7-2) saw their league title chances dissolve with two losses over the last month, but defeating the No. 12 team in Division 4 playoff-point average in Freeland (7-2) was a solid way to enter the postseason. Essexville Garber 34, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 21 The Dukes (6-3) were No. 29 in Division 5 playoff-point average heading into the week but got a four-spot bump in handing Laker (8-1) its only loss. Goodrich 42, Almont 21 The Martians (8-1) will be home throughout the playoffs with this win over Almont (6-3) another solid building block for the postseason.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Belleville 42, Brighton 3 Although both teams entered undefeated, few have slowed Belleville over the last few seasons as the Tigers (9-0) ran their winning streak to 20 with this Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship win. Brighton (8-1) had given up only 81 points this season before Belleville scored 42; the Tigers have put up at least 41 in every game this fall. Click for more from the Detroit News.
Watch list Grosse Pointe South 44, Grosse Pointe North 14 With the Norsemen (8-1) eying their first perfect regular season since 1986, the Blue Devils (6-3) swooped in to win their sixth game over their last seven this fall and fifth in a row over their rivals.
On the move Detroit Cass Tech 33, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 14 The Technicians (6-3) were able to hold on to the No. 29 spot in Division 1 playoff-point average with their fifth-straight win. Southfield Arts & Technology 28, River Rouge 21 The Warriors (7-2) rebounded from a Week 8 loss to West Bloomfield with a win over a River Rouge team that while 5-3 is much better than that record as all three defeats were by seven points or fewer. Gibraltar Carlson 38, Brownstown Woodhaven 18 Carlson (8-1) is a co-champion in the Downriver League for the second-straight season, with Trenton after the Trojans (8-1) defeated Southgate Anderson.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER Grand Ledge 45, East Lansing 30 The Comets (7-2) were considered emerging entering this season, but they finished the regular season as co-champions in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue. The surge seemed to start with a Week 6 win over DeWitt and carried through with this victory over the Trojans (6-3), who were in first place before falling in their final two games to Grand Ledge and the other co-champion, Holt. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Watch list Belding 36, Hopkins 14 The Black Knights (8-1) finished a perfect run through the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver and also ended a five-game regular-season losing streak against Hopkins (5-4), which would have shared the title with a win. (Belding did win a playoff game over Hopkins in 2020 after losing the regular-season meeting.)
On the move Lansing Catholic 42, Pewamo-Westphalia 7 The Cougars sat 3-5 with their string of 13 straight playoff appearances potentially on the verge of ending before they posted their most impressive win in downing the Pirates (5-4). Durand 48, Marine City 28 During an undefeated run of impressive performances, Durand (9-0) may have saved the best for last in this win over the Macomb Area Conference Silver champion Mariners (7-2). Mount Pleasant 28, Linden 21 The Oilers (8-1) won another matchup of league champions, as the Eagles (5-4) suffered their second one-score defeat over the last three weeks.
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Traverse City St. Francis 45, Detroit Country Day 20 The Gladiators may be favorites in the Division 7 playoffs and certainly are mathematically so as the closed the regular season 9-0 and with a playoff-points average nearly 4.7 points higher than the field. This defeat over a Country Day team (5-3) in line to host both District rounds in Division 5 was among six wins over teams that finished the regular season with winning records. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Watch list Ogemaw Heights 35, Lake City 7 Ogemaw Heights’ six-game winning streak got a nice boost from this big win over the also-playoff bound Trojans (5-4). The Falcons (7-2) also surpassed the six wins they’d totaled over the last two seasons combined.
On the move Gaylord 28, Clare 7 The Blue Devils (6-3) entered Week 9 as the No. 32 team on the Division 3 playoff-point list, but were able to bump up a few spots thanks to this win over playoff-bound Clare (5-4). Frankfort 36, Elk Rapids 14 The Panthers (8-1) tied their most wins since 2017 with their sixth-straight this fall. Elk Rapids (6-3) is headed back to the playoffs for the first time since 2018, despite the defeat. Traverse City Central 14, Traverse City West 13 Even with West (2-7) finishing below .500 for the first time since 2015, this rivalry game remained must-see as Central (5-4) won for the fourth-straight season but with this matching the one-score deciders the teams waged from 2013-18.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Clinton 32, Hudson 26 The Redwolves (9-0) made one of the loudest statements of the weekend, not only clinching the Lenawee Country Athletic Association championship for the first time since 2000 but ending Hudson’s state-best 22-game winning streak. The perfect regular season was Clinton’s second in four years (and first since 2019), while Hudson heads to the playoffs at 8-1. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Watch list Dexter 45, Chelsea 0 The Dreadnaughts (9-0) finished atop the Division 2 playoff-point average list by more than four points after defeating Chelsea (5-4) for the first time since 1995.
On the move Napoleon 15, Union City 0 After missing out on the playoffs last season despite a 6-3 record, Napoleon has left no doubt this fall with this win in a Cascades/Big 8 crossover of champions giving the Pirates (9-0) their first perfect regular season since 2002. Union City (7-2) lost for the first time since Week 1. Ida 17, Dundee 12 The Bluestreaks (4-5) needed a strong finish to make the playoffs, and edging Dundee (6-3) gave them the boost. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 41, Ecorse 22 St. Mary (4-5) similarly needed to close on a high note to make the playoffs, and got it by handing Ecorse (8-1) its only loss.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER St. Joseph 47, Battle Creek Central 29 This winner-take-all Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference matchup went to the Bears (8-1), who earned their first championship since sharing the title in 2015. St. Joseph turned in one of its best offensive performances while scoring the most points the Bearcats (7-2) have given up in a game this season. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Watch list Buchanan 36, Centreville 28 The Bucks (8-1) have gotten a lot of attention in this space lately, with good reason, as they added to their league title with a win over the Southwest 10 Conference champion Bulldogs (6-3).
On the move Constantine 37, Benton Harbor 20 The Falcons (8-1) capped a regular season that saw their only loss by two to Hudson in Week 2, and they enter the Division 6 playoffs No. 6 in playoff-point average. Portage Northern 35, Mattawan 21 The Huskies (6-3) closed on a three-game winning streak to return to the playoffs after missing last season. Plainwell 29, Paw Paw 23 The Trojans (4-5) missed the playoffs but ended with something to build on, stopping a four-game losing streak with this win over the playoff-bound Red Wolves (4-5). Three of Plainwell’s losses were by seven points or fewer.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Bark River-Harris 28, Ishpeming 20 The Broncos helped open the weekend Thursday by clinching the last league title up for grabs in the Upper Peninsula. Downing the Hematites not only gave the Broncos the outright Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron championship, but put them at 7-2 to conclude their winningest regular season since 2015. Ishpeming’s loss was its third by eight points or fewer, but it still qualified in Division 8 at 4-5. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Watch list Menominee 42, Kingsford 41 Arguably the most exciting game above the Bridge this season saw the Maroons hold off a final charge by the Flivvers. Menominee (5-4) in doing so solidified its spot in the Division 6 field, while Kingsford (6-3) qualified as No. 12 in Division 5.
On the move Calumet 41, L'Anse 22 The Copper Kings (6-3) were out of contention in the West-PAC Copper but closed with three straight wins to make the playoffs for the 18th time in 19 seasons. L’Anse also advanced for the first time (not counting all-in 2020) since 2013. Sault Ste. Marie 20, Benzie Central 14 (OT) The Blue Devils (6-3) just missed the playoffs for the second-straight season but came back from a midseason three-game losing streak to finish above .500 for the fifth-straight year. St. Ignace 54, Harbor Springs 14 The Saints capped their turnaround regular season at 7-2, their best record since 2016, and as outright champions in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy.
West Michigan
HEADLINER Rockford 38, Caledonia 15 Another winner-take-all decided the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red championship, with the Rams clinching their fourth straight with their third-straight undefeated regular season while sending the Fighting Scots to 8-1. Rockford built a sizable first-half lead in part by locking down a Caledonia offense that entered the game averaging nearly 46 points per. These two could see each other again in a Division 1 District Final. Click for more from FOX 17.
Here are the highlights of the Rockford at Caledonia football game that aired on Football Fridays Overtime powered by STATE CHAMPS! on @BallySportsDET.@RockfordRamsFB | @RockfordAD pic.twitter.com/hDRzyrj5O8
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) October 23, 2022
Watch list Muskegon 55, Muskegon Mona Shores 35 The Big Reds (7-2) seemed to fall out of the statewide conversation after a two-point loss to Zeeland West put them at 3-2. But they need to be talked up again after this big win over Mona Shores (7-2) gave them a share of the O-K Green title and vaulted them to No. 6 in Division 3 playoff-point average. Shores sits No. 9 in Division 2 playoff-point average.
On the move Fruitport 52, Holland Christian 21 The Trojans (7-2) clinched a share of the O-K Blue title and continued to build on their best record since 2012. Reed City 16, Cadillac 8 (OT) The Coyotes (8-1) are riding substantial momentum into the playoffs as the No. 3 team in Division 6 playoff-point average. Grand Rapids West Catholic 39, Hudsonville Unity Christian 18 West Catholic is the No. 1 team on that Division 6 list and the other half of the O-K Blue co-championship after downing last season’s Division 4 runner-up Unity (5-4).
8-Player
HEADLINER Au Gres-Sims 42, Posen 24 The Wolverines finished up an outright championship run in the North Star League Little Dipper, sending Posen (7-2) into second place with its lone league loss. Au Gres-Sims (8-1) has won seven straight games (including a forfeit in Week 8), and held a Posen offense averaging 45 points per game to nearly half that. Click for more from WBKB.
Watch list Deckerville 62, Peck 60 (4 OT) The Eagles (6-3) finished third in the North Central Thumb League Stars but vaulted into the postseason with this win over the Stripes champion Pirates (7-2). The teams hadn’t faced each other since 2019, but Deckerville has won their last seven meetings.
On the move Stephenson 50 Norway 40 This was notable for several reasons – the Eagles secured a spot in the playoff field, they did so against a Norway team (6-3) that’s been considered among the best in 8-player Division 1, and at 6-3 as well Stephenson has its most wins since 2017. Powers North Central 42, Crystal Falls Forest Park 0 The Jets (9-0) finished another Great Lakes Eight Conference West title with their 33rd straight win, and could see Forest Park (7-2) again in a Regional Final. Bridgman 35, Martin 34 The Bees finished their second-straight perfect regular season after moving to 8-player four years ago, with this win over Division 1 contender Martin (7-2) among their most impressive victories of the run.
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PHOTOS Negaunee's Kai Lacar (10) finds a hole and sprints for another Miners touchdown in the second quarter of last week's win over Ishpeming Westwood. (Middle) A Davison ball carrier follows his blocker during Friday's win over Lapeer. (Below) A Cass City ball carrier prepares to take on a Beal City defender. (Photos by Cara Kamps, Terry Lyons and High School Sports Scene, respectively.)