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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012

October 24, 2012

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.

So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:

How would you have done so differently?

And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.

This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.

Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.

Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.

Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.

There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”

Observations and answers

A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.

Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season. 

No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.

The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.

Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.

And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way. 

Their journeys begin Friday.

A Pine River ball carrier looks for an opening during McBain’s 46-0 win Friday, 10/7/22..

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 7 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 10, 2022

The home stretch is here, and with it more of the unexpected even as we continue to learn a few new details every week about this season’s contenders.

MI Student AidSeveral more league champions were rewarded this week, but nearly as many races seemed to re-open thanks to unpredicted performances.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 32, Bad Axe 14 The Lakers (7-0) finished an outright championship run in the Greater Thumb Conference West, defeating Bad Axe in a winner-take-all league finale. Those two and Reese had shared the championship a year ago. Bad Axe entered scoring 37 points per game, but Laker still hasn’t given up more than 15 to any opponent this fall. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

Watch list Armada 37, North Branch 28 The top of the Blue Water Area Conference is shuffling weekly, and suddenly Armada (6-1) finds itself on top alone after knocking the Broncos (6-1) off their former solo perch.

On the move Marine City 47, Clinton Township Clintondale 8 The Mariners (6-1) haven’t lost again since falling to Armada by a point in their season opener, and they finished a Macomb Area Conference Silver outright title run. Lapeer 42, Grand Ledge 28 The Lightning (7-0) turned away another strong challenge from the Comets (5-2) with Clarkston and Davison coming up to close the regular season. Fenton 28, Linden 21 This combined with Swartz Creek’s win over Flushing ended the Flint Metro League Stripes schedule with a shared championships among the Tigers (5-2), Eagles (5-2) and Dragons (6-1).

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Riverview 18, Carleton Airport 13 The Pirates (6-0) ran their regular-season winning streak to 26 and Huron League streak to 21 in clinching a third-straight conference championship. The Jets (5-2) entered averaging 32 points per game but were held to their second fewest this season.

Watch list Grosse Pointe North 50, Warren Fitzgerald 0 After going a combined 7-27 over the last four seasons, North is 7-0 and the Macomb Area Conference Green champion. The Norsemen have given up 32 points this season and allowed only six over five league wins.

On the move Grosse Pointe South 20, St. Clair Shores Lakeview 16 After two seasons in the MAC Red, South returned to the MAC White this season – and after an 0-2 nonconference start won all five league games to take back the title after previously winning the White four straight seasons from 2016-19. Redford Union 40, Melvindale 6 The Panthers (7-0) ran their Western Wayne Athletic Conference winning streak to 17 and clinched a share of a second-straight league title. Southfield Arts & Technology 35, Oak Park 12 In addition to guaranteeing its first overall winning record since its first season in 2016, A&T (6-1) clinched an outright Oakland Activities Association White title while no league opponent got closer than 14 points.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Durand 54, Chesaning 8 This combined with Ovid-Elsie’s 14-13 win over New Lothrop earned the Railroaders (7-0) a share of the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference title. The seven wins are the team’s most since winning seven in 2009, and tied their most since 1983 according to Michigan-football.com. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Watch list Laingsburg 27, Fowler 14 Coming off a Week 6 win over many-season reigning champ Pewamo-Westphalia, the Eagles (6-1) looked to be control in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference. But Laingsburg, which opened its CMAC schedule with a loss to P-W, instead guaranteed itself a share of the championship with Fowler and the Pirates able to earn the same with wins this week. 

On the move Ithaca 50, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 18 The Yellowjackets (6-1) claimed the Tri-Valley Conference West 2 title, their 14th straight league championship, while handing MLS (6-1) its only loss. Ovid-Elsie 14, New Lothrop 13 In avenging four MMAC losses to New Lothrop over the last four seasons, Ovid-Elsie (5-2) also gained an opportunity to claim a share of the league title if the Hornets (6-1) defeat Durand this week. Olivet 42, Lake Odessa Lakewood 7 The Eagles (6-1) ended their (and Lakewood’s) time in the Greater Lansing Activities Conference by clinching a sixth-straight league championship while sending the Vikings (5-2) into second place.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Boyne City 34, Elk Rapids 0 The Ramblers (6-0) clinched a share of the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders championship, with the opportunity to earn it outright this week against Tawas. The shutout was the team’s second in three games and the championship is their second straight. Elk Rapids moved to 5-2. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Cadillac 24, Belding 6 The Vikings (5-2) not only are Big North Conference champions but now own a win over another league leader as the Black Knights (6-1) sit atop the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver standings.

On the move Tawas 44, Maple City Glen Lake 14 Tawas entered the season with 15 straight losses and added five more, but now has won two straight and this time with its best offensive performance since 2019. Traverse City St. Francis 35, Sault Ste. Marie 7 The Gladiators (7-0) finished a repeat title run in the NMFC Legends and ran their regular-season win streak to 19. Lake City 45, Roscommon 6 The Trojans (5-2) equaled their 2021 win total and with two regular-season games to play against opponents that could significantly improve their postseason possibilities as they sit No. 24 in Division 7 playoff points.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Tecumseh 50, Chelsea 34 The Tecumseh dream season continues and now includes the program’s first win over Chelsea since 2013 and a Southeastern Conference White championship to go with a 7-0 start. Chelsea (5-2) provided the stiffest challenge this season, but Tecumseh’s offense continued to churn going over 50 points for the fifth time this fall. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.

Watch list Temperance Bedford 7, Saline 0 The Kicking Mules (5-2) had given Saline (6-1) some of its closest games over the last eight years. But their first win over Saline since 2013 not only ended a personal losing streak but the Hornets’ run of 50 straight SEC Red wins since that last Bedford defeat.

On the move Napoleon 29, Michigan Center 27 Napoleon (7-0) is the Cascades Conference champion, and outright thanks to some help from Grass Lake (see below). Adrian Madison 14, Erie Mason 8 The Trojans (3-4) need to make up 12 spots to get into the Division 6 playoff field, but two straight wins is the right start especially with Mason at 5-2 this fall. Grass Lake 34, Addison 18 The Warriors (4-3) have pushed to the No. 26 spot in the Division 7 playoff field with Addison sitting No. 27 on the Division 8 list.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Buchanan 26, Niles Brandywine 24 The Bucks are the first football champions of the Lakeland Athletic Conference, and they earned that historic title by avenging a 2021 loss to Brandywine (4-3). The Bobcats made a run at the lead late, but Buchanan (6-1) held on and sits No. 15 in Division 5 playoff points with tough games to go against Benton Harbor and Centreville. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Watch list Lawton 49, Schoolcraft 14 The Blue Devils (6-1) remain on a roll, with this win clinching a share of the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley title and their fourth straight scoring at least 42 points and giving up no more than 16.

On the move Decatur 37, Delton Kellogg 22 The Raiders (5-2) guaranteed their winningest season since 2018 and against a Delton team eying a third-straight playoff appearance and sitting No. 12 in Division 7 playoff points. Niles 49, Paw Paw 8 The Vikings (3-4) had a rough stretch midseason, but with a second-straight win are sitting just one spot outside the Division 4 playoff field. St. Joseph 42, Stevensville Lakeshore 14 The Bears (6-1) continued to push toward a possible Week 9 decider in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference while sending Lakeshore (3-4) into a tie for third.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Negaunee 24, Gladstone 6 The Miners (7-0) fortified their status as the Upper Peninsula’s top team this fall, adding this win to another over Iron Mountain – the two opponents that also have been in the mix for that praise. The Braves were averaging 36 points per game entering the contest, but Negaunee brought its points-allowed average down to nine per game this season. Click for more from RRN Sports.

Watch list St. Ignace 20, East Jordan 14 The Saints (6-1) clinched a share of the NMFC Legacy championship and can claim it outright Week 9 against winless Harbor Springs. East Jordan (3-4) is hanging on to a spot in the Division 8 playoff field.

On the move Calumet 35, Houghton 12 The Copper Kings (4-3) bounced back from a Week 6 loss with a must-win against the Gremlins (5-2) and are holding onto the No. 32 spot in the Division 6 playoff field.  Ishpeming Westwood 14, L’Anse 6 The Patriots (4-3) ran their winning streak to four as they prepare to finish with a pair of potential league champions in Bark River-Harris and Negaunee. Marquette 21, Menominee 6 After a 1-4 start, Marquette has won two straight including this one to avenge a 2021 loss to the Maroons (4-3).

West Michigan

HEADLINER North Muskegon 28, Ravenna 7 The Norsemen (6-1) drew another important win closer to a possible West Michigan Conference title with this win over second-place Ravenna (5-2) to go with an earlier victory over third-place Hart. The Bulldogs are the highest-scoring team in the Rivers division this fall, but North Muskegon held them to well below their previous average of 39 points per game. Click for more from CatchMark SportsNet.

Watch list Fruitport 28, Grand Rapids West Catholic 20 This was the stunner of the weekend, but maybe shouldn’t have been as Fruitport is enjoying its best season in a decade after finishing below .500 the last eight. West Catholic (6-1) hadn’t had an opponent come within two touchdowns since opening night.

On the move Big Rapids 27, Howard City Tri County 27 The Cardinals (5-2) shook up the Central State Activities Association Gold and ended up on top with a guaranteed share of the title with Tri County and Reed City also with one loss in league play. Reed City 52, Kent City 0 The Coyotes (6-1) won big over the CSAA Silver champ Kent City (6-1), a nice bonus to getting back into the Gold title race. Sparta 34, Hopkins 14 The Spartans are 4-1 over their last five games and back in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver mix after pulling the Vikings (5-2) out of a tie for the top spot.

8-Player

HEADLINER Peck 46, New Haven Merritt 6 The Pirates clinched the North Central Thumb League Stripes title and haven’t lost since Week 1. Peck has won its league games by an average of 37 points per, with one more to play. Merritt (4-3) is part of a three-way tie for second place.

Watch list Au Gres-Sims 50, Alcona 34 The Wolverines (6-1) are tied for first in the North Star League Little Dipper with a Week 9 matchup against Posen likely to decide the championship, and Alcona (6-1) playing Rogers City next for the Big Dipper title.

On the move Tekonsha 62, Burr Oak 6 Tekonsha (6-1) finished a second-straight perfect run through the Southern Central Athletic Association B. Indian River Inland Lakes 36, Pellston 6 The Bulldogs (5-2) finished an outright title run in the Ski Valley Conference and have yet to lose a league game over two seasons. Brown City 64, Mesick 62 The Green Devils (6-1) went over 60 points for the second-straight week to lock up their closest win of a strong first season of 8-player.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO A Pine River ball carrier looks for an opening during McBain’s 46-0 win Friday. (Photo by Tonya Holmes.)