Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2021 Week 4 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 17, 2021
For the last 20 years, we would have entered Week 4 of football season discussing how many teams would have to win the rest of their games to guarantee making the playoffs.
But the six-wins-and-in era is done (and never existed for 8-player), and there’s still plenty of time for every team to impact its destiny – especially with only 130 of 598 teams still undefeated and 12 more sure to fall off that list this weekend.
MHSAA.tv will carry 170 games live this weekend, with Bally Sports Detroit broadcasting Friday's Traverse City Central/Traverse City West matchup on its PLUS cable channel. See the full schedule from the MHSAA Score Center and see below for some of the games with the most intriguing storylines as we take another step toward the regular season’s midpoint.
Bay & Thumb
Davison (1-2) at Grand Blanc (3-0)
This is the fourth season these two will meet in the Saginaw Valley League Red, and Davison has won all four meetings of the recent series including for a Division 1 District title last year. Coming off three one-score wins over highly-touted foes – East Lansing, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central and Midland Dow – Grand Blanc could be ready to take its turn in the rivalry. But the Cardinals’ record is deceptive. Coming off last season’s second-straight trip to the Division 1 Final, Davison opened this fall with losses to Clarkston and then Detroit Catholic Central, falling by just three to the still-undefeated Wolves.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Mount Pleasant (3-0) at Midland Dow (2-1), Standish-Sterling (3-0) at Millington (3-0), Freeland (3-0) at Essexville Garber (3-0), Harbor Beach (2-1) at Ubly (3-0).
Greater Detroit
Warren De La Salle Collegiate (2-0) at Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (3-0)
The four Detroit Catholic League Central teams are a combined 10-1 this fall, and this week begins a must-see title race. These two have opened league play against each other since 2010, with seven meetings (including one in the playoffs) decided by seven or fewer points. Rice won the 2019 matchup 16-14 and last year 27-25, but the Pilots followed up the latter by reaching the Division 2 Final for the third time in four seasons. The Warriors haven’t given up a point since a season-opening win over Macomb Dakota, but De La Salle can claim the biggest headliner so far after downing last season’s Division 3 runner-up River Rouge 38-29 in Week 2.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grosse Pointe South (2-1) at Romeo (3-0), Detroit Country Day (3-0) at South Lyon (3-0), Marine City (3-0) at Wyandotte Roosevelt (3-0), Southfield Arts & Technology (2-1) at Clarkston (3-0).
Mid-Michigan
Haslett (2-1) at Mason (2-1)
Last week’s Mason comeback win over Williamston thrust this game quickly into the spotlight as it’s almost sure to have Capital Area Activities Conference Red implications. Mason has won the league the last two seasons, while Haslett is returning to contention – the Vikings already have as many wins this fall as in 2020 and 2019, and they need one more point to also equal last year’s scoring over seven games. Both of these teams have intriguing offensive skill players, but both also needed time last week to get rolling – Williamston trailed 27-13 at halftime before winning 34-27, and Haslett was up 7-0 at halftime on the way to defeating Lansing Eastern 33-14. Getting on track first could be key.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Lake City (3-0) at Beal City (2-1), Big Rapids (2-1) at Central Montcalm (3-0), Holt (2-1) at DeWitt (2-1), Lansing Everett (2-1) at Grand Ledge (3-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City West (3-0) vs. Traverse City Central (2-1) at Thirlby Field
The annual “Patriot Game” is the place to be in northern Michigan – crowds every season of 10,000+ would agree – and this year’s chapter could read more like the one-score classics from most of the last decade after less-characteristic big wins (both by Central) the last two seasons. They’ll go together into the Saginaw Valley League for football next season, and started their final Big North Conference schedules last week with wins – West 21-7 over last season’s Division 4 runner-up Cadillac. The only loss by either so far has been Central’s season opener to reigning Division 3 champion DeWitt.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (3-0) at Maple City Glen Lake (1-2), Frankfort (2-1) at Oscoda (2-1), Harbor Springs (1-2) at Boyne City (3-0), Petoskey (3-0) at Gaylord (1-2).
Southeast & Border
Michigan Center (3-0) at Addison (3-0)
Addison has won two straight Cascades Conference titles and 16 straight league games, but this will be its first matchup with Michigan Center since 2019. They didn’t see each other during last year’s abbreviated regular season, although the Cardinals finished second in the league with a loss coming to Hanover-Horton. Addison has outscored its three opponents so far – including Hanover-Horton last week – by a combined 145-35. But the Cardinals have been just as impressive if not more – outscoring their three opponents 136-0, including a 42-0 avenging against Hanover-Horton in Week 2.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (3-0) at Milan (3-0), Monroe (2-1) at Saline (3-0), Ann Arbor Huron (2-1) at Temperance Bedford (3-0), Clinton (2-1) at Ida (2-1).
Southwest Corridor
Vicksburg (3-0) at Edwardsburg (3-0)
It’s early, of course, but statistically this Edwardsburg team is following the pattern of its best over the last decade. The offense has scored more every week, from 38 to 55 to 61 against Niles in the latest win, and the defense has given up seven points total. Next up are the Bulldogs, who lost twice to Edwardsburg last season but have been a playoff team five of the last seven years. The three opponents the Eddies defeated are all 2-1, and league rivals are lined up – undefeated Plainwell is next after Vicksburg, with Paw Paw coming up in Week 6.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Three Rivers (2-1) at Niles (2-1), Battle Creek Lakeview (2-1) at Battle Creek Central (2-1), White Pigeon (3-0) at Comstock (2-1), St. Joseph (3-0) at Kalamazoo Central (1-2).
Upper Peninsula
Ishpeming Westwood (2-1) at Ishpeming (1-1)
This rivalry will be restored after Ishpeming did not field a varsity last season. The Patriots solidly ended a 23-game losing streak to the Hematites the last time they met, however, claiming the 2019 matchup 38-0. Westwood’s fast start this fall ran into an obstacle last week with a loss to Calumet, but there would hardly be a better way to pick back up than with a win tonight. Ishpeming was off last week and has had plenty of time to prepare for a game that could pay big dividends toward its rebound as well.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kingsford (3-0) at Marquette (2-1), Iron Mountain (1-2) at L'Anse (2-1), Negaunee (2-1) at Manistique (2-1). SATURDAY Houghton (2-1) at Bark River-Harris (3-0).
West Michigan
Muskegon Oakridge (3-0) at Montague (2-1)
A fresh start with some new faces saw Montague shut out in Week 1 by a strong Edwardsburg team. But the reigning Division 6 champion Wildcats stormed right back with back-to-back shutouts the last two weeks of North Muskegon and Hart. And they could get another big boost against rival Oakridge, which they’ve beaten three of the last four seasons including 42-6 a year ago. The Eagles are coming off a forfeit win/bye last week but already own a pair of solid wins over Sparta and Whitehall. Another this week combined with the Week 2 victory over the Vikings would put the Eagles in pretty strong position in the West Michigan Conference title race.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Zeeland West (2-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (2-1), East Grand Rapids (1-2) at Byron Center (3-0), Manton (2-1) at Evart (3-0), Grand Rapids South Christian (2-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (3-0).
8-Player
Mendon (3-0) at Bridgman (3-0)
These two are likely league title contenders in the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League Tier 1 and 2, respectively. Mendon had been one of the last southwestern holdouts its size before switching to 8-player football for this fall, and the Hornets brought a run of 13 winning seasons over their last 14 with them. So far so good after the switch, as the offense is averaging just more than 63 points per game. Bridgman successfully made the switch in 2018 and is a combined 18-2 since the move. The Bees are scoring 55 points per game so far – but more notably for this matchup, giving up only seven.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Adrian Lenawee Christian (3-0) at Athens (3-0), Norway (2-1) at Ironwood (2-1), Lawrence (3-0) at Morrice (3-0). SATURDAY Lake Linden-Hubbell (2-1) at Powers North Central (3-0).
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PHOTO: Ishpeming's Preston Gauthier (37) is chased by Manistique's Austin Hinkson (24) during their teams’ Week 1 matchup. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)