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Michigan’s Football Numbers Game – Corrected

September 1, 2017

Today’s blog was written by MHSAA Second Half Editor Geoff Kimmerly

The demise of Michigan high school football has been greatly exaggerated – or, at least, recently misreported by one of the U.S.’s most recognizable newspapers that noted as part of a larger story on football decline that Michigan has seen a “net loss of 57 teams in the past five years.”

It’s easy to understand how this error took place – especially when a reporter is not familiar with the football landscape in our state – but that doesn’t make this statement any less misleading, or harmful considering the story since has been picked up by multiple large news organizations. So let’s quickly clear up the misinterpreted information:

  • The data that led to this error came from an annual participation report released by the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS). Every spring, state associations (like the MHSAA) from every state and Washington, D.C., tally up how many of their member schools have a sport and how many athletes play it. 

  • For 2016-17, the MHSAA submitted to the NFHS a total of 580 schools with 11-player football – that number actually includes all schools that reported having at least one football player, including primary and secondary schools in co-ops. And yes, that 580 is 57 fewer than the 637 11-player schools the MHSAA submitted for 2012-13. 

  • But saying Michigan has lost 57 football programs misses out on something incredibly significant – the MHSAA also submitted 60 schools with 8-player football last year, up from 16 in 2012-13, making that net decrease in football schools over five years 13 – far fewer than 57.

And with a few more brush strokes, the picture of football in our state actually shows a healthy landscape:

  • The 640 schools in Michigan with at least one football player for 2016-17, 11 and 8-player combined, is actually eight more than we reported to the NFHS four years ago and 10 more than three years ago. 

  • A better picture of Michigan’s football consistency is shown by how many varsity programs are taking the field. This fall, that number is 616 – 555 11-player varsities and 61 8-player – and we also had 616 for most of the 2016 season, 616 in 2015 and 615 in 2014. 

  • We’ve had programs bring back varsity teams this year, and in one case a school has a team on its own for the first time. Benzonia Benzie Central and Suttons Bay were unable to field varsities in 2016, but Benzie Central is back playing 11-player and Suttons Bay is back with an 8-player team. Brimley, an 8-player school going back to 2010, also is fielding a team again after being unable to do so last year. Mount Clemens played only two varsity games in 2016 and forfeited a third, but has seven scheduled for this fall and lost close in its opener last week. And Bear Lake, previously a secondary school in a co-op program, now has a team all its own for the first time and is playing at the 8-player level. 

  • Yes, there has been a decrease in Michigan high school football participation when it comes to the number of players – for reasons we discuss frequently, including more extracurricular/entertainment options than ever for students, more who are specializing in other sports and safety fears that often are misplaced. But we’ve also seen a three percent drop in enrollment at MHSAA member schools over the last five years. And despite that trend, Michigan again had the sixth-highest 11-player football participation in the nation in 2016-17 (and seventh-highest in 8-player) while ranking 10th nationally in number of residents of high school age. 

  • So yes, while a nine percent drop in the number of football players over the last five years in Michigan clearly is troubling, and something we’re working with the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association to reverse, let’s also put those numbers in perspective. At medium-sized to bigger schools, it could mean a roster of 40 might have only 36 players. A roster of 20 at an 8-player school might go down to 18. Neither would signal the need to eliminate a football program. 

  • And that move by so many schools to 8-player? It definitely started as a way for low-participation programs to keep football (and has worked for most of them). While that still may be the driving force as schools move from 11 to 8, others have made the switch because most of their former opponents did and joining them makes scheduling easier and travel shorter. Michigan has a multitude of small towns, and you’ll find most of these 8-player programs in pockets in the thumb, southwest or northern Lower Peninsula, or Upper Peninsula. And keep in mind, only Class D teams remain eligible for the 8-player playoffs – and only two of 61 teams playing 8-player this fall are larger than Class D and its enrollment limit of 203 students for 2017-18.

The story behind “a decrease of 57 schools” clearly is a little complex to explain and explain away, but it’s necessary to do so. 

Yes, Michigan’s total number of football players is down a few percent. But the sport’s prominence and importance in our schools and communities remains high.

Drive for Detroit: Week 6 Preview

October 3, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor 

We’ve begun the second half of the football regular season, and predictably every week will include increasingly important games as league titles and playoff qualifiers are determined.

We’ve highlighted a number of matchups below that could end up deciding league title races. Meanwhile, four teams qualified last week for the 11-player playoffs after starting 5-0 with eight-game schedules. Another 64 can join the field with a win this weekend.

A total of 28 games will be streamed live tonight on MHSAA.tv, including eight highlighted below. Click for the full schedule.

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

Goodrich (4-1) at Lake Fenton (3-2)

The winner earns a share of the inaugural Flint Metro League Lower division championship. Both joined the league this fall after previously playing in the Genesee Area Conference Red – Goodrich won that league’s final title in 2018 after Lake Fenton was the champ in 2016 and 2017. Don’t be shocked if this is close. The Martians have hung on after opening this season with a one-point loss to Flint Powers, claiming wins over Linden and Ortonville Brandon by a touchdown or less. Lake Fenton similarly knows how to navigate a close game. The Blue Devils opened with losses to Cadillac by 10 and Ida by six, but won their next three games by six, two and one point. 

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Sanford Meridian (4-1) at Beaverton (5-0), Lapeer (4-1) at Grand Blanc (4-1), Essexville Garber (4-1) at Frankenmuth (5-0), North Branch (4-1) at Richmond (5-0).

Greater Detroit

Belleville (5-0) at Dearborn Fordson (5-0)

The annual meeting between these two – most recently in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East – eventually has decided three straight league titles, and there’s a chance that will be the case again when all is said and done this fall. These two and Livonia Franklin are all undefeated and tied for first in the East. Belleville is seeking its third straight league title, and hence third straight win over Fordson after prevailing 29-26 a year ago. Both are piling up points again, each averaging more than 40 per game. 

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Oak Park (4-1) at Birmingham Seaholm (4-1), Detroit Martin Luther King (3-2) at Detroit Denby (5-0), Southfield Arts & Technology (3-2) at Clarkston (2-3), Hartland (3-2) at Plymouth (5-0).

Mid-Michigan

Midland (5-0) at Mount Pleasant (5-0)

The winner will move into first place alone in the Saginaw Valley League Red. The reigning champion Oilers have won 19 of their last 20 games going back to midway through 2017 and last season beat Midland 40-20 in the game that eventually decided the league title. This time they couldn’t be much more numerically even – the Oilers have scored 200 points and given up 38, and the Chemics have a 203-39 combined scoring margin. Midland also has beaten the only other team in the league with an overall winning record, Saginaw Heritage (3-2).

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Mason (5-0) at Fowlerville (5-0), Holt (3-2) at East Lansing (4-1), Remus Chippewa Hills (2-3) at Central Montcalm (5-0), New Lothrop (5-0) at Durand (3-2).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Johannesburg-Lewiston (5-0) at Charlevoix (4-1)

While this matchup means nothing toward a league title, it should serve as a measuring stick for some of the best small-school teams just south of the Mackinac Bridge. Both are undefeated in their leagues – Charlevoix in the Northern Michigan Football League Leaders and the Cardinals in the NMFL Legacy. The Rayders should have a little extra incentive as well as they continue their best season since 2016 and lost to Johannesburg-Lewiston by a combined 62-7 over the last two years.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (3-2) at Boyne City (2-3), Evart (3-2) at Houghton Lake (3-2), Oscoda (5-0) at Tawas (3-2), Frankfort (2-3) at Mancelona (3-2).

Southeast & Border

Hillsdale (5-0) at Blissfield (4-1)

This is another matchup of teams tied for first place in their league. Hillsdale is in a bit more familiar spot having shared the Lenawee County Athletic Association title last season with Brooklyn Columbia Central. But Blissfield already has beaten BCC (for the third straight season) and will try to continue its charge with a first win over the Hornets since 2016. Hillsdale won those last two meetings by 10 in 2018 and eight the year before.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Springport (3-2) at Jonesville (4-1), Sand Creek (4-1) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (3-2), Riverview (3-2) at Carleton Airport (4-1), Britton Deerfield (3-2) at Clinton (5-0).

Southwest Corridor

Cassopolis (5-0) at White Pigeon (5-0)

The co-leaders in the Southwest 10 Conference have taken vastly different paths on the way. Cassopolis is the reigning league champion and has clinched the conference titles three of the last four seasons. The 11 points Decatur scored last week were the first the Rangers have given up this fall. White Pigeon made the playoffs last year for the first time since 2009, which also was its first winning season since 2014. But the Chiefs have been similarly stellar on defense giving up only 40 points over five games, and the opportunity to take the league lead by breaking a nine-game losing streak to Cassopolis should further feed the team’s motivation. 

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Schoolcraft (5-0) at Constantine (4-1), Gobles (3-2) at Lawton (5-0), Coldwater (4-1) at Marshall (3-2), St. Joseph (5-0) at Portage Central (3-2).

Upper Peninsula

Iron Mountain (5-0) at Calumet (5-0)

This is the first of four straight league games for both, and a title won’t be decided tonight. But this has been one of the most highly-anticipated matchups in the Upper Peninsula since Week 1. Calumet won last season’s Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper title, and steadily earned a share of first place so far this fall with wins over Ishpeming Westwood and Negaunee sticking out. The Mountaineers gave notice as contenders quickly with wins over Negaunee and Westwood as well the first two weeks, and they haven’t allowed a point over the last three. Last year’s meeting ended with a 24-0 Calumet win, but it’s fair to expect a closer and yet still low-scoring result in the rematch.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Escanaba (4-1) at Menominee (4-1), Ishpeming Westwood (3-2) at Hancock (4-1), Negaunee (3-2) at L'Anse (4-1). SATURDAY West Iron County (4-1) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (3-2).

West Michigan

Hudsonville (4-1) at Grandville (5-0)

These two and Rockford are off to 2-0 starts in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red. Hudsonville is a one-point Week 2 loss to Holt from undefeated and earned perhaps its best win so far last week, 28-16 over Jenison. Grandville hung on for a one-point win over East Kentwood last week, but its body of work continues to look better and better with Week 3 opponent Forest Hills Central a contender in the O-K White and Week 2 opponent East Lansing arguably the top team in the entire Lansing area this fall. 

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (4-1) at Cedar Springs (4-1), Ravenna (4-1) at Montague (4-1), Allendale (3-2) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (4-1), Ludington (4-1) at Muskegon Orchard View (5-0).

8-Player

Martin (5-0) at Bridgman (5-0)

Just about everything about this is new. These two are both unbeaten in the first-year Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League, both playing their first season of 8-player. They did play each other in 11-player last year for the first time, at least as far back as Michigan-Football.com tracks for Bridgman (1957), with Martin a 13-8 winner.  The Clippers were 11-player playoff qualifiers last year, but the switch has really helped the Bees turn things around – they had gone a combined 1-16 over the last two seasons. Martin has played one more league game than Bridgman, so a win tonight would clinch the Clippers a share of the league title.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Gaylord St. Mary (5-0) at Suttons Bay (5-0), Cedarville (3-2) at Pickford (4-1), Climax-Scotts (4-1) at Tekonsha (3-2). SATURDAY Crystal Falls Forest Park (4-1) at Powers North Central (5-0).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Mount Pleasant, here against Bay City John Glenn during a Week 3 win, is off to a 5-0 start and faces Midland in one of the state’s headlining games this weekend. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)