Breslin Bound: 2021-22 Girls Regional Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
March 8, 2022
Breslin is only one more week away. And what a week it's going to be.
Regional play begins tonight with 128 teams becoming just 32 quarterfinalists by Friday. Check out “Tracking the Tournament” on MHSAA.com for every matchup, and see below for some of last week’s most notable District scores and three Regionals in each division to pay special attention to as we move closer to determining this season's champions.
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Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Fowler 50, Portland St. Patrick 41 The Division 4 reigning champ Eagles (19-3) avenged losses of four and seven (in overtime) to the Shamrocks (21-1) from the regular season.
2. Portland 45, Lansing Catholic 30 The reigning Division 2 champion Raiders (21-1) made it two straight over the Cougars (19-3) after losing the first meeting in January.
3. West Bloomfield 46, Bloomfield Hills Marian 35 Both had been building notable momentum over the last few weeks, but the Lakers (20-1) advanced in the final game at Marian (15-7) for legendary coach Mary Cicerone.
4. Muskegon Western Michigan Christian 61, Hart 47 The Warriors (17-4) won this matchup of league champions, also avenging a 16-point season-opening loss to the Pirates (17-4).
5. Newaygo 61, Sparta 49 The Lions (21-1), last season’s Division 2 runners-up, won their 15th-straight game by double digits in ending the run for Sparta (19-3).
Regionals at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
DIVISION 1
Byron Center
Muskegon Mona Shores (19-3) vs. Rockford (20-2), Hudsonville (20-2) vs. Byron Center (19-2)
Hudsonville, Mona Shores and Byron Center all were league champions in the Ottawa-Kent Conference, and Rockford was runner-up to Hudsonville in the Red with its only two losses to the reigning Division 1 champion Eagles – who also entered the tournament No. 1 overall in Division 1 MPR. But although Hudsonville has defeated all three of these teams, this hardly will be a breeze. The Eagles defeated Byron Center on Dec. 14 in overtime, 59-56, and that was the Bulldogs’ last loss this season. Mona Shores lost two more times, but avenged both on the way to sharing the O-K Green title with Muskegon Reeths-Puffer.
Midland
Alpena (14-9) vs. Midland Dow (21-1), Flint Carman-Ainsworth (18-4) vs. Grand Blanc (17-4)
Dow, Carman-Ainsworth and Grand Blanc finished first, second and third, respectively, in the Saginaw Valley League, while Alpena tied for third in the Big North Conference before putting together a District run that included a win over runner-up Gaylord, a one-point victory over Marquette and a two-pointer over Traverse City Central. Next up for the Wildcats is Dow, a Division 1 semifinalist last season. The Chargers clinched the SVL with a 56-45 win over Carman-Ainsworth on Feb. 22, and surely their rematch is anticipated by most this week. But Grand Blanc has won eight straight since falling back-to-back to Dow and the Cavaliers and also will be tough seeing either or both the second time.
West Bloomfield
Berkley (13-8) vs. Grosse Pointe North (17-5), Farmington Hills Mercy (18-4) vs. West Bloomfield (20-1)
Mercy (No. 4), West Bloomfield (6) and North (11) all finished among the highest in overall Division 1 MPR and won league championships. Mercy also earned a 43-35 win over North back on Dec. 5, the only time any of these teams played each other this regular season – although West Bloomfield advanced with a 46-35 win over Bloomfield Hills Marian, which got past Mercy in overtime three weeks ago. Not only has West Bloomfield not lost since its season opener, it has had only one single-digit game since the start of the calendar year. Don’t look past Berkley, which defeated 2021 Division 1 runner-up Detroit Renaissance by 20 to win their District last week.
DIVISON 2
Detroit Edison
Detroit Edison (14-3) vs. Redford Westfield Prep (20-1), Carleton Airport (14-8) vs. Romulus (19-2)
Edison and Westfield Prep finished first and second, respectively, in final Division 2 MPR, and this will be their first meeting as both played B teams for Charter School Conference games. Edison’s Ruby Whitehorn is one of four finalists for the Miss Basketball Award and keys a team that lost in-state only to West Bloomfield, 65-62 on Feb. 15. Westfield’s only loss was to Division 3 contender Ypsilanti Arbor Prep, 54-51 on Jan. 13. The other side of the bracket also has plenty of intrigue: Romulus has won 10 straight and is the Western Wayne Athletic Conference champ, while Airport is enjoying its best stretch and avenged two losses to Grosse Ile with a 48-41 District Final win.
Frankenmuth
Saginaw Swan Valley (18-4) vs. Belding (19-3), Frankenmuth (20-2) vs. Ovid-Elsie (21-1)
Frankenmuth (No. 5), Ovid-Elsie (No. 11) and Swan Valley (No. 13) were among the top ranked in the final Division 2 MPR. All have impressive records and lost almost entirely to opponents that posted similarly high win totals. Frankenmuth defeated Swan Valley twice on the way to winning the Tri-Valley Conference 8, but Swan Valley’s other losses were to teams that won 17 and 18 games. The Eagles fell to Arbor Prep and Grand Blanc, but defeated Midland Dow. Ovid-Elsie lost to Goodrich but has pairs of victories over 16-game winners New Lothrop and Chesaning, and two of Belding’s defeats were to 19-game winner Sparta.
Tecumseh
Marshall (16-6) vs. Portland (21-1), Williamston (17-6) vs. Chelsea (19-3)
The Division 2 reigning champion Raiders finished third in final Division 2 MPR, and Chelsea was fourth. The Raiders got by a significant challenger in No. 7 Lansing Catholic with a 45-30 District Final win; the Cougars had handed Portland its only loss. The Raiders also have an early win over Williamston, by 12, and a mid-January 17-point victory over Chelsea. But to see either again they’ll have to get past Marshall, which finished second in the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference with all but one of its losses to teams that won at least 15 games and two of those defeats to Division 1 contender Parma Western (21-1). Williamston is on an eight-game winning streak that helped result in a league title, and Chelsea also won its league and can boast victories over Marshall and 18-win Battle Creek Lakeview and Tecumseh (twice).
DIVISION 3
Houghton Lake
Lake City (18-4) vs. Oscoda (15-6), McBain (19-3) vs. Sanford Meridian (20-2)
Meridian is enjoying one of its best seasons in recent memory after going 6-9 last year and 0-21 the season before. The Mustangs won 18 straight before falling to Division 1 contender Midland Dow in the regular-season finale, and they edged Jack Pine Conference rival Farwell for the third time to claim the District title. They’ll see McBain, which won a Highland Conference that had four teams reach 15 wins this season – including runner-up Lake City, which defeated McBain in their first meeting. Oscoda also shared its league title, in the North Star League Big Dipper, and is enjoying an 8-2 stretch.
Reese
Reese (18-4) vs. St. Charles (18-3), Sandusky (22-0) vs. Cass City (16-4)
Reese, St. Charles and Sandusky are league champions, and Cass City was the runner-up to the Rockets in the Greater Thumb Conference West but with losses by only three and two points to the league title winner – the latter just two weeks ago. Sandusky is enjoying its best of a long run of excellent seasons and first undefeated this late since 2016-17. St. Charles has four victories over teams that won at least 15 games, and Reese has taken 11 of its last 12 with last week’s District title its first since 2015-16.
St. Ignace
Bark River-Harris (15-6) vs. Calumet (19-2), Maple City Glen Lake (22-0) vs. St. Ignace (20-2)
This loaded Regional includes the No. 2 (St. Ignace), No. 3 (Calumet) and No. 8 (Glen Lake) teams in final Division 3 MPR, and all four were league champions. Calumet defeated St. Ignace and Glen Lake on the way to last season’s Division 3 Semifinals and lost this season only to Division 2 Escanaba and Houghton. The Saints have won 17 straight and avenged one of their defeats this winter, to Sault Ste. Marie. Glen Lake last made the Semifinals in 2018, and its only defeat last season was to the Copper Kings. The Lakers haven’t had a game closer than 10 points since Dec. 7. Bark River-Harris has won 10 of its last 11 games and made a nice statement edging Menominee by four in last week’s District Final.
DIVISION 4
Kingsford
Baraga (20-1) vs. Ontonagon (15-7), Eben Junction Superior Central (14-7) vs. Carney-Nadeau (21-1)
Baraga won its fourth-straight league title, in the Copper Mountain Conference Copper Country division, and lost this season only to Division 2 Houghton. The Vikings finished No. 10 in overall Division 4 MPR and have five and 12-point wins over Ontonagon this winter, although the Gladiators also are league champions after sharing the title in the Porcupine Mountain division. They’ve won 11 of their last 13 games, including avenging three of their defeats. Superior Central had a tough end to the regular season but downed Munising (16-6) to advance to this week and a third matchup with Carney-Nadeau, which won the first two big and has only a two-point loss to Felch North Dickinson keeping it from a perfect record. Carney-Nadeau made the Division 4 Semifinals a year ago.
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart
Hillman (14-7) vs. Saginaw Nouvel (19-3), Fowler (19-3) vs. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (17-4)
The Eagles are the reigning Division 4 champions and finally got past rival Portland St. Patrick in the District Final after losing both regular-season games against the Shamrocks. But things don’t get easier this week – starting with a Sacred Heart team that’s won 11 straight and defeated its Mid-State Activities Conference co-champ Coleman to win last week’s District. On the other side, Hillman was co-champion in the North Star League Little Dipper, and has won 10 of its last 12 games. Nouvel also won a league title, in the Division 3-heavy Tri-Valley Conference 10, and hasn’t lost since opening 1-3 – with one of those early defeats by 16 to Fowler.
Rogers City
Pickford (17-2) vs. Engadine (15-7), Posen (20-1) vs. Harbor Springs Harbor Light Christian (13-7)
Posen is coming off its fifth-straight league and third-straight District championships, with its only loss this season by three to Little Dipper co-champ Hillman. Tonight’s opponent Harbor Light Christian won its first District title since 2017-18 and avenged a loss in clinching last week. Pickford finished No. 7 in overall Division 4 MPR with its only defeats to Division 3 St. Ignace and two wins by 18 over Engadine during the regular season.
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PHOTO West Bloomfield and Bloomfield Hills Marian played in one of the headlining Division 1 District Finals last week. (Photo by Douglas Bargerstock.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.