Breslin Bound: 2024-25 Girls Report Week 11
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
February 17, 2025
The final basketball bracket reveal of the MHSAA winter season is coming up Sunday, when Girls Basketball District pairings will be announced. For the first time, all teams in every District will be seeded based on Michigan Power Ratings (MPR).
MPR is calculated using wins and losses for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA Tournament. Scores of games, margin of victory and location of games are not included in the MPR formula. The final MPR number is 25 percent of the team's winning percentage, plus 50 percent of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25 percent of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage – the total rewarding both success and strength of schedule.
A number of league championship deciders will take place this week, as will a handful of nonleague matchups of potential MHSAA Finals contenders as they tune up for March.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Belleville 62, Wayne Memorial 38 Two weeks after suffering its only loss this season, to Wayne (14-6), Belleville (18-1) stormed back to set up a possible shared title in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East with one league game to play for both.
2. Haslett 80, Detroit Country Day 52 The Vikings (15-2) avenged a 20-point loss from last season to the Yellowjackets (14-5) as both look forward to MHSAA Tournament aspirations in March.
3. Yale 36, Sandusky 19 Both of these teams are closing in on league titles, and maybe more as Yale (18-1) handed Sandusky (16-1) its only loss and they will go separate ways for the postseason.
4. East Jordan 54, Gaylord St. Mary 42 The Red Devils (15-4) shuffled the Ski Valley Conference standings a bit with St. Mary (15-2) and Indian River Inland Lakes now both with just one league loss and East Jordan with two and three league games to play.
5. Midland 62, Flint Powers Catholic 46 The Chemics (16-1) remain one game ahead of Saginaw Heritage in the Saginaw Valley League after Heritage also defeated Powers (12-5) on Friday.
Watch List
With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:
DIVISION 1
Clarkston (13-6) The Wolves are one win away from clinching the Oakland Activities Association Red title, one spot ahead of reigning Division 1 champion West Bloomfield in the standings thanks in part to a 48-41 win over the Lakers on Jan. 31. Clarkston has won nine of its last 10 games, its only defeat during that time to Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (14-3), and with a win over OAA Blue leader Auburn Hills Avondale (15-3) during the run. The Wolves will be ready for high-level competition next month with losses as well this season to Flint Powers (12-5), Hartland (15-4), Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (18-1), Country Day (14-5) and Detroit Edison (12-3).
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (14-3) The Eaglets claimed their second-straight league championship, sharing the title in the Catholic High School League Central West division after winning the AA a year ago. They split with co-champion Farmington Hills Mercy (13-4), winning the first meeting and losing the second, and their other defeats were similarly strong against FGR and Country Day. Wins over Livonia Stevenson (15-5) and Clarkston (see above) also pop off the page, and OLSM can carry some significant momentum into the postseason with a good result Feb. 27 at Frankenmuth (16-3).
DIVISION 2
Haslett (15-2) The Vikings opened this season with a loss to Division 1 contender Rockford (19-1), but have fallen only one more time since, to Division 1 DeWitt (17-1). Add those to last week’s win over Country Day and a perfect run through the Capital Area Activities Conference Red so far, and the Vikings have steadily raised their profile again after finishing second in the league but then winning a District title a year ago. The most impressive CAAC Red win was 67-56 over second-place St. Johns (15-3), with the rematch coming up Friday. Haslett also closes the regular season with possible Regional Semifinal opponent Parma Western (17-1), although to see Western a second time Haslett must first navigate a District that includes Wixom St. Catherine (15-3).
Vicksburg (16-2) Back-to-back losses to Paw Paw (14-3) and Niles Brandywine (17-0) as January turned to February have been just a momentary detour as Vicksburg has clinched at least a share of the Wolverine Conference title, the Bulldogs’ third straight. They reached the Division 1 Quarterfinals a year ago and have continued to impress again, winning the first meeting with Paw Paw and earning other notable victories over Stevensville Lakeshore (12-3) and Coldwater (12-6) among others. Vicksburg can clinch the league title outright against Edwardsburg on Friday and should be the favorite in its District that also includes Marshall (13-5) but three sub-.500 teams.
DIVISION 3
Bronson (15-2) A 51-32 win over Concord on Feb. 4 has Bronson in position to share the Big 8 Conference title with the Yellow Jackets (16-4), who won the first meting 49-46 on Jan. 3. That would be a jump from finishing third in the league and 16-7 overall a season ago, and the only other loss this time was to undefeated Brandywine. Games against Division 1 Sturgis (11-7) and Division 2 Buchanan (10-8) should provide some additional prep as Bronson prepares to host a District that will include Southwest 10 Conference leader Centreville (12-4) and Quincy (10-7), which Bronson has defeated twice.
Grass Lake (15-3) Grass Lake has clinched a share of the Cascades Conference East title, its seventh-straight league championship, and jumped from No. 15 to 12 to No. 6 in statewide Division 3 MPR over the last three weeks. The Warriors are on a 12-game winning streak that’s included pairs of victories over Michigan Center (15-2) and Leslie (13-5) and handing Division 1 Detroit Renaissance (18-1) its only loss. The run kicked off after a 3-3 start that included losses to Chelsea (14-2), Country Day and Jackson Lumen Christi (12-5) – and Grass Lake could see Lumen again in the District the Warriors will be hosting.
DIVISION 4
Clarkston Everest Collegiate (13-2) After finishing as a league runner-up the last two seasons, Everest has won its first championship since 2012-13 with a perfect run through the CHSL Intersectional 1. The only losses this season were to Division 2 Warren Regina and Wixom St. Catherine, and all of the Mountaineers’ wins have come by at least 15 points. Everest will face two of its toughest opponents to close the regular season, Division 3 Rochester Hills Northwest (13-4) and Division 2 Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (12-5), both next week.
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (13-0) A 40-37 win over St. Charles last week kept Sacred Heart undefeated and atop the Mid-State Activities Conference alone after finishing a regular-season sweep of the second-place Bulldogs. A league title would be Sacred Heart’s first since 2019-20 and follow last year’s run to the Quarterfinals. The Irish will fit six league games into the next two weeks, including matchups with third-place Fulton (11-6), fourth-place Merrill (10-6) and fifth-place Breckenridge (9-6). Sacred Heart also had a notable two-point opening win this season over Beaverton (12-5).
Can’t-Miss Contests
Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up:
Tuesday – Rockford (19-1) at Frankenmuth (16-3) – These Divisions 1 and 2 powers, respectively, meet again with Rockford having taken last year’s matchup 67-44.
Thursday – Detroit Renaissance (18-1) at Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (18-1) – The annual Operation Friendship game between Detroit Public School League and Catholic High School League tournament champions also matches up contenders statewide in Divisions 1 and 2, respectively.
Thursday – Yale (18-1) at Armada (15-1) – At least a share of the Blue Water Area Conference title could be decided with Yale a game ahead in the standings after downing Armada 69-62 on Jan. 28.
Friday – Detroit Edison (12-3) at Belleville (18-1) – Two more potential favorites in Divisions 2 and 1, respectively, will meet again after Edison won last year’s matchup 57-46.
Friday – Utica Eisenhower (18-1) at Utica Ford (17-1) – Eisenhower has a one-game lead going into this Macomb Area Conference Red finale after handing Ford its lone defeat, 64-49 on Jan. 28.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a division within the Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential (MiLEAP). MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS (Top) Oscoda’s Kingsley Backstrom (22) drives to the basket during her team’s 59-26 win over Saginaw Valley Lutheran on Feb. 11. (Middle) Pewamo-Westphalia’s Alonna Thelen (40) puts up a jumper during her team’s 59-53 victory over Fowler on Feb. 5. (Oscoda/Valley Lutheran photo by Kolleth Photo. P-W/Fowler photo by Team Arreguin Photos.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.