Class C-D Preview: Pursuing perfection
March 18, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
A pair of undefeated teams from Class C and D will play for their first MHSAA girls basketball championships this weekend.
Laingsburg, in Class C, and Class D Pittsford also won their first Regional titles on the way and are joined by two others hoping to reach championship games Saturday at Michigan State University’s Breslin Center for the first time in their programs’ histories.
But standing in the way are a three-time champ in Class C and three teams with a combined nine titles seeking to win again in Class D.
All four Class C and D Semifinals will be played Thursday, with all four championship games Saturday.
Semifinals - Thursday
Class C
Calumet (22-2) vs Laingsburg (26-0), 1 p.m.
Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (22-3) vs Flint Hamady (25-1), 2:50 p.m.
Class D
Pittsford (25-0) vs Waterford Our Lady (12-12), 6 p.m.
Frankfort (24-1) vs St. Ignace (20-5), 7:50 p.m.
Finals - Saturday
Class A - Noon
Class B - 6 pm
Class C - 4 pm
Class D - 10 am
Tickets cost $8 per pair of Semifinals and $10 per two-game Finals session. All Semifinals will be streamed live on MHSAA.TV on a pay-per-view basis. All four Finals will be broadcast live on Fox Sports Detroit, the Class D, A and C title games on FOX Sports Detroit's primary channel and the Class B game on FOX Sports Detroit-PLUS. Free radio broadcasts of all weekend games will be available on MHSAANetwork.com.
And now, a look at the semifinalists in Class C and D. Click on the name of the school to see that team’s full schedule and results from this season. (Statistics are through teams' Regional Finals.)
Class C
CALUMET
Record/rank: 22-2, unranked.
League finish: Second in Western Peninsula Athletic Conference.
Coach: Jeff Twardzik, first season (22-2).
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 43-37, 53-36 and 45-37 (District Final) over Hancock, 46-23 over Tawas in the Quarterfinal.
Players to watch: Lexie Rowe, 5-5 sr. G (11 ppg, 2.7 spg); Ellen Twardzik, 5-10 sr. C (9.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg).
Outlook: Calumet is making its first Semifinal appearance after playing in its first Quarterfinal since 1977. The Copper Kings are only a pair of losses to Class B and league rival Houghton from a perfect record. Seven seniors lead a veteran group, with four in the starting lineup. Junior Clara Loukus adds 7.6 points and 3.1 assists per game. Twardzik took over the varsity after previously leading the junior varsity to a 38-0 mark.
FLINT HAMADY
Record/rank: 25-1, No. 5.
League finish: First in Genesee Area Conference Blue.
Coach: Keith Smith, 13th season (292-38).
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent Class C 2010), one runner-up finish.
Best wins: 44-42 over No. 10 Saginaw Nouvel in the Quarterfinal, 42-26 over honorable mention Sandusky in the Regional Semifinal, 45-33 over honorable mention Flint Beecher in the District Final, 54-29 and 44-32 over Class D No. 9 Morrice.
Players to watch: Jalisha Terry, 5-7 jr. G; Aaliah Hill, 5-9 sr. C (statistics not provided).
Outlook: Hamady is back at the Semifinals for the first time since 2011 after winning back-to-back championships in 2009 and 2010. The Hawks again cruised through the GAC Blue for their sixth league title in seven seasons, and fell only to Class B semifinalist Detroit Country Day. Terry is a three-year varsity player at the point and one of the state’s top juniors, and she and Hill are surrounded by three underclassmen in the starting lineup with another freshman playing a key role off the bench.
LAINGSBURG
Record/rank: 26-0, No. 1.
League finish: First in Central Michigan Athletic Conference.
Coach: Doug Hurst, third season (55-15).
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 33-26 over No. 2 Niles Brandywine in the Quarterfinal, 40-29 over Morley Stanwood in the Regional Final, 33-24 over Kent City in the Regional Semifinal, 28-17 over No. 10 Carson City-Crystal in the District Final, 32-26 (District opener), 36-33 and 39-29 over Pewamo-Westphalia.
Players to watch: Lindsey Smith, 5-7 jr. F (11.2 ppg, 2.4 spg, 41 3-pointers); Julia Angst, 5-4 jr. G (8.0 ppg, 2.8 apg).
Outlook: Although Laingsburg has had nice seasons playing in a league that includes multiple previous MHSAA champions, this clearly has been the Wolfpack’s best run. The juniors above are the leading scorers but surrounded by three seniors in a starting lineup that is balanced not just in putting points on the board but rebounding and defensively as well – four players have between 54-64 steals and seven have grabbed at least 50 rebounds.
YPSILANTI ARBOR PREP
Record/rank: 22-3, tied for No. 3.
League finish: Does not play in a league.
Coach: Rod Wells, fourth season (78-14).
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 59-39 over No. 8 Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett in the Regional Final, 58-38 over No. 6 Blissfield in the Regional Semifinal, 59-55 over Class B No. 3 Grand Rapids Catholic Central, 54-39 over Class B No. 6 Detroit Country Day.
Players to watch: Nastassja Chambers, 5-9 jr. G (15.3 ppg, 2.1 apg, 3.7 spg); Karlee Morris, 5-11 sr. F (8.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.4 spg).
Outlook: Arbor Prep won Regional titles the last two seasons – it fell to eventual champion Eaton Rapids in last season’s Class B Quarterfinal – and is tested against some of the biggest and best in Michigan with losses to Class A Southfield-Lathrup, Ann Arbor Huron and Bloomfield Hills Marian. Five players score at least six points per game, with senior guard Payton Sims adding eight points per and making 44 3-pointers heading into the week.
Class D
FRANKFORT
Record/rank: 24-1, No. 1.
League finish: First in Northwest Conference.
Coach: Tim Reznich, 13th season (236-72).
Championship history: Class D champions 2006 and 2005.
Best wins: 49-42 over No. 7 Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart in the Quarterfinal, 52-30 over No. 3 Bellaire in the Regional Final, 61-38 over St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran.
Players to watch: Mackenna Kelly, 5-10 jr. G (17.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.3 spg); Cecelia Schmitt, 5-10 soph. G (13.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg).
Outlook: Frankfort emerged from a 10-11 record only two seasons ago to go a combined 47-3 over the last two – and knocked off reigning champion Sacred Heart to reach its first Finals weekend since winning the back-to-back titles. The only loss was in December to Portland, a Class B District finalist. Kelly and Schmitt are strong shooters – Schmitt better than 50 percent from 3-point range – and Kelly gets plenty of rebounding help from seniors Shayla Soto (9.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.1 apg) and Madison Stefanski (4.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg).
PITTSFORD
Record/rank: 25-0, No. 2.
League finish: First in Southern Central Athletic Association East.
Coach: Chris Hodos, third season (63-7).
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 65-20 over No. 9 Morrice in the Regional Final, 50-45 over St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran in the Quarterfinal, 47-39 over Manchester.
Players to watch: Maddie Clark, 5-9 soph. F (19.4 ppg, 10 rpg, 4.0 spg, 1.4 bpg); Jaycie Burger, 5-9 soph. G (17.9 ppg, 6.5 apg, 3.9 spg).
Outlook: Pittsford has gotten here in part with an incredible defensive effort. The Wildcats are giving up an average of 27.6 points per game during the postseason and total have kept opponents under 30 points 18 times this winter. Only four of 13 players are upperclassmen, making this potentially the first of a few impressive runs to come.
ST. IGNACE
Record/rank: 20-5, No. 6.
League finish: First in Straits Area Conference.
Coach: Dorene Ingalls, 16th season (335-65).
Championship history: Four MHSAA titles (most recent Class D 2013), three runner-up finishes.
Best wins: 66-51 over No. 10 Crystal Falls Forest Park in the Quarterfinal, 81-51 over Hillman in the Regional Final, 55-40 over Cedarville, 52-48 and 56-35 over Sault Ste. Marie.
Players to watch: Margo Brown, 5-7 sr. G (13.8 ppg, 3.2 apg, 3.4 spg, 51 3-pointers); Abbey Ostman, 5-9 jr. G/F (16.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 4.0 spg).
Outlook: Class C or D matters not to the Saints; they’ve made six straight Finals weekends and played in two straight championship games, finishing as runner-up in Class C a year ago. Ostman and Smith also started last season and 6-0 senior center Sarah Smith played the most minutes off the bench in the Final; she’s averaging 8.2 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. St. Ignace has won 10 straight since falling to Class A Gaylord on Feb. 2, and all five of its losses were to bigger schools.
WATERFORD OUR LADY
Record/rank: 12-12, unranked.
League finish: Third in Detroit Catholic League East.
Coach: Steve Robak, eighth season (147-52).
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 2012), one runner-up finish.
Best wins: 38-35 over honorable mention Birmingham Roeper in the Regional Semifinal, 39-36 over Kingston in the Quarterfinal, 46-44 over Allen Park Inter-City Baptist in the Regional Final.
Players to watch: Tiffany Senerius, 5-8 fr. G (10.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg); Alex Troy, 5-6 jr. G (10.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.8 apg).
Outlook: Our Lady is in the rare situation as a surprise at the Finals – the Lakers won three straight titles and then finished runner-up from 2010-13 before falling to 8-13 a year ago. They’ve been revived with two freshmen starters and a sophomore in the playing group to go with three junior starters. This weekend will continue to provide valuable experience for a lineup that has gone 8-4 over its last 12 games.
PHOTO: Clara Loukus (10) stands in the way of a Hancock ball handler during Calumet's District championship win. (Photo courtesy of Calumet High School.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.