Southfield Leads Fast, Holds On to Lead Last
March 22, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
GRAND RAPIDS – Give Muskegon a ton of credit. After 11 minutes Thursday, it’s Division 1 Semifinal at Van Noord Arena was all but over.
And Southfield Arts & Technology knew the feeling.
Two years ago, the Warriors found themselves down 20 points in the third quarter of their Semifinal against East Kentwood. They pulled all the way back to within two of the lead before ultimately losing to the Falcons by four.
This time, Southfield A&T got up 18 points three minutes into the second quarter at Van Noord Arena. But while Muskegon charged back to within two of the lead with 53 seconds to play, the Warriors prevailed 54-50 to earn their first championship game berth.
“Being (at the Semifinals) before, it helped me keep my composure and mentally stay in it. Because two years ago, we were down by a lot at the half, and we had to come back with the same fight that Muskegon tried to put against us,” A&T junior guard Cheyenne McEvans said. “I understand what Muskegon was trying to do, and how East Kentwood held us off is how we had to hold them off from coming back.
“We hung on at the end because we just wanted it, and we all just had to talk to each other and keep each other in the game. I try to take really good pride in keeping my teammates involved mentally, and keep their heads up. So I just told them, the run that they’re going on, we’ve just got to hold it – hold it together to the end of the game.”
The Warriors (24-1) will face Saginaw Heritage in Saturday’s 12:15 p.m. championship game, seeking the first title for the 3-year-old school and also the first for one of the schools that merged to create A&T since Southfield Lathrup’s 2005 Class A win.
Neither team Thursday scored for nearly the first three minutes. But once the Warriors got started, they put up nine straight points over 80 seconds. During the second quarter, they connected on 64 percent of their shots from the floor to carry a 29-13 lead into halftime.
But the Big Reds – making their first Semifinal appearance – began to show signs of revival. They had missed their first 13 shots and 18 of 19 on the way to the 21-3 deficit. But beginning with senior Alyza Winston’s basket with 4:30 to play in the first half, Muskegon made 44 percent of its shots from the floor the rest of the way.
“We’re really a second-half team, if you look at the Regional games, the District games, we came out second half with a whole different energy,” Winston said. “That’s really just us.
“I feel like this game we just needed it more in the first half than we had it, but that’s normal for us.”
A&T still led 44-31 with a quarter to play. Muskegon junior guard De’shonna Day’s basket with seven minutes to play made the deficit single digits again at 44-35. That started a 17-8 run, and a Day 3-pointer pulled the Big Reds to within 52-50 with 53 seconds to play.
Muskegon (21-5) got the ball back on a jumpball. But A&T did hold on – two more times. First junior center Jasmine Worthy blocked off the lane to force a travel as the Big Reds looked to tie. After senior Soleil Barnes made two free throws with six seconds left to push the lead back to four, the Warriors got a steal to end the game.
“Having been to the final four, and won a championship before, I know defense is really going to make a difference,” said A&T coach Michele Marshall, who led the Lathrup title run. “You can score a ton of points, but ultimately you’re going to have to get some stops.
“When we play defense the way we did in that last possession, it becomes very difficult to get easy shots, and all we’re trying to do is make the most difficult shot with our defense.”
Senior forward Alexis Johnson led A&T with 18 points and 12 rebounds, while McEvans and Barnes both finished with 12 points. Sophomore guard Kayiona Willis had five assists.
Winston, a Miss Basketball Award finalist this season, finished with 25 points, and Day had 13 and seven rebounds. Senior center Nia Miskel grabbed 10 rebounds.
Now A&T gets the rare opportunity to avenge its lone defeat. The Warriors fell to Heritage 45-43 on Dec. 8 at the Ypsilanti Arbor Prep Icebreaker Invitational.
“I feel like this is the game we can use to cross out our record, if we can get this win,” Johnson said. “We want to come out with a clean record and we feel we’re number one in the state, and this game will prove it.”
PHOTOS: (Top) Southfield Arts & Technology’s Alexis Johnson pushes the ball upcourt during Friday’s Division 1 Semifinal win over Muskegon. (Middle) The Big Reds’ De’shonna Day moves the ball around the perimeter.
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.