Preview: Time to Take the Final Step
October 31, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Half of this season’s boys soccer finalists have never won an MHSAA championship.
But they’re surely looking forward to another opportunity after just-misses in the past.
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian has finished runner-up in Division 4 the last two seasons. Opponent Birmingham Roeper has made the Semifinals four times including last season and lost in its lone Final appearance. Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood has fallen in Semifinals two of the last five seasons, and Williamston fell in overtime in the Division 3 Final only two years ago.
One of the Division 4 teams is sure to celebrate Saturday. Cranbrook and Williamston have their work cut out, however, against two of the most storied programs in MHSAA history. Division 1 is the lone division matching former champions.
Below is Saturday's schedule, followed by a look at each team in the hunt:
Division 1 at Brighton, Noon
Canton (23-0-3) vs. Rochester Adams (13-4-7)
Division 2 at Brighton, 3 p.m.
East Lansing (23-2) vs. Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood (19-2-1)
Division 3 at East Kentwood Crestwood Middle School, Noon
Hudsonville Unity Christian (23-1) vs. Williamston (14-3-6)
Division 4 at East Kentwood Crestwood Middle School, 3 p.m.
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian (21-3-2) vs. Birmingham Roeper (22-1)
All four Finals will be streamed live on MHSAA.TV and available on a subscription basis. A one-day pass costs $9.95 and allows access to all four games plus the Lower Peninsula Cross Country Finals. A month pass costs $14.95 and allows fans to also watch live the Volleyball Semifinals and Finals and Lower Peninsula Girls Swimming & Diving Finals, plus weekly coverage of the football playoffs. Radio broadcasts of the Soccer Finals will be available on MHSAAnetwork.com.
Click for links to brackets and scores. All statistics below are through Regional Finals.
DIVISION 1
CANTON
Record/rank: 23-0-3, No. 2
Coach: Mark Zemanski, second season (40-2-6)
League finish: First in Kensington Lakes Activities Association Kensington Conference
Championship history: Two MHSAA titles (most recent 2011).
Players to watch: Jack Zemanski, sr. M (5 goals, 17 assists); Carter Schenk, sr. F (14 goals, 6 assists); Hunter Olson, jr. M/F (15 goals, 9 assists).
Outlook: Canton’s undefeated run has included wins over No. 3 Livonia Stevenson (by shootout), No. 9 Plymouth and No. 10 Northville (by shootout in the Regional Final) and one of the ties was against Rochester Adams, this weekend’s championship game opponent. Jack Zemanski and Schenk both earned all-state honorable mentions as juniors, with Zemanski this fall the main distributor to four players with at least 12 goals. Three keepers have combined for 15 shutouts, including a string of seven straight through the middle of the season.
ROCHESTER ADAMS
Record/rank: 13-4-7, honorable mention
Coach: Josh Hickey, sixth season (70-33-30)
League finish: Second in Oakland Activities Association Red
Championship history: Division 1 champion 1999, runner-up 2001.
Players to watch: Kevin Lencioni sr. F (17 goals, 5 assists), Lennart Zorn, jr. F (15 goals, 8 assists), Dylan Brown, soph. GK (0.50 GAA, 9 shutouts).
Outlook: Hickey has led Adams to two straight District titles and four total in six seasons, this time after a rather middling 1-1-4 start to the fall. Adams downed No. 4 Fraser 3-2 in the Semifinal in one of only five games the team gave up more than one goal. The ties are many but impressive against honorable mentions Novi, Detroit Catholic Central (which Adams later beat) and Canton, as mentioned above. Brown is one of three sophomore starters and also has a freshman among defenders in front of him.
DIVISION 2
BLOOMFIELD HILLS CRANBROOK KINGSWOOD
Record/rank: 19-2-1, No. 10
Coach: Chad O’Kulich, 16th season (214-54-24)
League finish: First in Detroit Catholic League AA
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Players to watch: Paul Holmes, sr. M (14 goals, 9 assists); Kolin Clark, soph. M (13 goals, 4 assists); Ken Kernen, jr. F (14 goals, 9 assists).
Outlook: Cranbrook’s run has been impressive with three shutouts and its last two wins coming over No. 5 Linden in the Regional Final and No. 9 Dexter in the Semifinal. Both losses were during the first half of the regular season to honorable mention Orchard Lake St. Mary’s, and the Cranes also own a win over Division 3 No. 9 Detroit Country Day. They’ve won nine straight league titles and 11 in 12 seasons, plus three straight Districts and two Regionals in three seasons. Five seniors man the middle and back in front of junior keeper Trevor Stormes, who has 10 shutouts.
EAST LANSING
Record/rank: 23-2, No. 4
Coach: Nick Archer, 38th season (595-154-72)
League finish: First in Capital Area Activities Conference Blue
Championship history: Four MHSAA titles (most recent 2013), two runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: DeJuan Jones, sr. F (22 goals, 13 assists); Zach Lane, jr. M (15 goals, 7 assists); Elmedin Celovic, sr. M (11 goals, 6 assists), Chris Wallace, jr. GK (15 shutouts).
Outlook: The Trojans followed last season’s championship with four shutouts to start 2014, and their lone losses were to top-ranked Mason and honorable mention DeWitt, the latter in a shootout. East Lansing avenged that Mason loss by beating the Bulldogs in the Semifinal and also beat No. 3 Spring Lake and DeWitt during this tournament run – and Division 1 No. 1 Okemos during the regular season. Jones has committed to play next season at Michigan State University and could be a finalist for Mr. Soccer.
DIVISION 3
HUDSONVILLE UNITY CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 23-1. No. 1
Coach: Randy Heethuis, 21st season (395-66-30)
League finish: First in Ottawa-Kent Conference Green
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 2012), four runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Trent Vegter, sr. D/M (14 goals, 22 assists); Jared Timmer, sr. M (29 goals, 22 assists); Andrew DeJong, sr. F (21 goals, 6 assists); Carson Brinks, sr. F (17 goals, 13 assists); Lucas Ohlman, sr. GK (0.51 GAA, 15 shutouts).
Outlook: Unity Christian has won three of the last seven MHSAA titles in Division 2, including in 2012, and makes the move into Division 3 with a strong senior class looking for one last crowning achievement. Nine of 12 seniors start for a team that has shut out 16 of its last 18 opponents including No. 6 Grosse Ile 3-0 in the Semifinal. The lone loss was to Division 7 No. 3 Grand Rapids Christian, 4-3.
WILLIAMSTON
Record/rank: 14-3-6, No. 4
Coach: Brent Sorg, 10th season (132-83-21)
League finish: First in CAAC White
Championship history: Division 3 runner-up 2012.
Players to watch: Josh Ward, jr. M (11 goals, 13 assists); Aidan Pace, sr. F (6 goals, 9 assists); Zach Griffin, jr. F (18 goals, 3 assists); Brian Ganton, jr. F (14 goals, 5 assists).
Outlook: Williamston has taken a step into the elite over the last four seasons with four District and two Regional titles and a just-miss overtime loss to Grand Rapids South Christian in the 2012 Final. This Hornets run included wins over No. 7 Frankenmuth, No. 3 Flint Powers Catholic and regular-season victories over Division 1 No. 1 Okemos, Division 2 honorable mention DeWitt and Division 4 No. 3 Kalamazoo Hackett. Ward made the all-state second team last season as a sophomore, and Pace earned an honorable mention.
DIVISION 4
BIRMINGHAM ROEPER
Record/rank: 22-1, No. 4
Coach: Ed Sack, 17th season (226-113-21)
League finish: First in Michigan Independent Athletic Conference Blue
Championship history: Class D runner-up 1995.
Players to watch: Simon Roennecke, soph. F (35 goals, 34 assists); Max Whipple, sr. F (42 goals, 19 assists); Calvin Lind, jr. GK (1.06 GAA, 10 shutouts).
Outlook: Roeper took on its share of Detroit area teams with multiple wins during the regular season over No. 10 Plymouth Christian and honorable mention Allen Part Inter-City Baptist, and avenged an early overtime loss to honorable mention Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett with a win at the end of the regular season and then another in overtime in the Regional Final. Whipple made the all-state first team last season as a defender and ranks among the highest scorers in MHSAA single-season history; Roennecke made the all-state second team last season, and his assists tie for eighth-most for one fall in the MHSAA record book.
GRAND RAPIDS COVENANT CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 21-3-2
Coach: Mike Noorman, 11th season (145-70-17)
League finish: First in River Valley Conference
Championship history: 2013 and 2012 runner-up.
Players to watch: Travis Bouwkamp, sr. F (20 goals 33 assists), Jared Minderhoud, sr. M (24 goals, 6 assists); Colin Riemersma, jr. F (32 goals, 10 assists).
Outlook: Covenant Christian has fallen by a goal in both of the last two Division 4 Finals and graduated a strong senior class this spring. But Bouwkamp, an all-state first-team selection in 2013, has led a new group of standouts as they’ve outscored opponents by a combined score of 102-23. Covenant beat No. 3 Hackett in the Regional Final and then No. 9 Muskegon Western Michigan Christian in the Semifinal, and the losses all came to much larger schools including Division 2 No. 6 Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern and No. 8 Holland Christian.
PHOTO: East Lansing's DeJuan Jones will attempt to lead the Trojans to their second straight Division 2 championship and fifth MHSAA title overall.
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.