Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
'Double-Double Machine' Bowman Leading as Alanson Begins To See Success
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
December 6, 2024
Times are changing for Alanson’s girls basketball opponents.
Simply put, the Vikings are no longer an easy win.
And by the way, they are undefeated at this early-season junction.
Mother nature’s snow machine caused a postponement of Wednesday’s scheduled game against Traverse City Christian. Alanson’s “machine” is Gretchyn Bowman, the leading reason the Vikings are no longer an easy “W.” Bowman, a 5-foot-7 senior center making a move to shooting guard, is a threat to score double digits and grab as many rebounds every game.
Such a threat, she was labeled a double-double machine by a local newspaper as the Vikings entered the season.
“I think it is really cool that I am being called that – like I am a machine?” Bowman humbly asked with a little laugh. “That actually makes me real happy.”
It makes her team and her coach even happier. The results Bowman gets have led to many more victories than the Vikings have been accustomed. In fact, at one point early in Bowman’s career, the Vikings played through a 28-game losing streak. That ended with a win over Pellston in early December of the 2021-22 campaign.
It’s not the personal stats motivating Bowman, who will sign next week to play basketball for North Central Michigan Community College.
“I work really hard to try to put up as much stats as possible for the team for a win,” Bowman said. “I usually get double-doubles in points and rebounds, and I’ve been working toward my triple-double.”
Bowman would like to add double-digits in blocked shots to her game stats. She will leave steals to her younger sister, sophomore Hazel, the Vikings’ point guard.
“They are the dynamic duo,” said Alanson coach Nikki Leech. “It is really special when they get out there.”
The Vikings are 1-0 with the season tipping off this week. They were 5-22 last year. They won’t play again until Dec. 13 at Northern Lakes Conference rival Mackinaw City.
Alanson will go into the game with aspirations of winning a league title. The other conference foes are Wolverine, Boyne Falls, Ellsworth, Harbor Springs Harbor Light Christian, Burt Lake Northern Michigan Christian and Alba. Boyne Falls, Northern Michigan Christian and Harbor Light could be District opponents as well, along with Harbor Springs and Pellston.
“Even though we are small, we are definitely mighty and we are building momentum,” Leach said. “People used to think, ‘We are just playing Alanson. No big deal. We’re going to win.’”
Leech took over the Vikings’ girls basketball program a few weeks before the end of the 2021-22 season. Alanson’s tiny enrollment had led to eighth graders regularly starting for the varsity, and Bowman herself played as an eighth grader on the team. Leech’s focus has been on fundamentals, sportsmanship and confidence-building.
Her work has really paid off for the Vikings. Things are moving so far forward, Alanson now has a junior varsity girls team.
“That year we scored 200 points the whole season,” Leech recalled of her first season. “So going into the next year it was fundamentals, and we were really starting from the ground up.”
The focus on fundamentals were welcomed by all, especially Gretchyn Bowman.
“Gretchen did a really good job of embracing the fact we had to start with a foundation of the house before we built the team,” Leach said. “The best thing is all of these girls have been working together for the past four years. This year is finally the first year everything has clicked, and Gretchyn is a big part of it.”
The Vikings opened the season with a 28-27 win over Atlanta. Bowman had six points, six rebounds and five blocks. Her career stats to date are now 402 points, 376 rebounds, 134 blocks and 55 steals. She’s racked up the points despite scoring just 35 as a freshman as the Vikings struggled.
Bowman’s tenacious play has also led to foul struggles. It’s no secret the Vikings play better with her on the court. Her desire to block shots led to her fouling out in almost half of her freshman and sophomore games.
“There is no question that when Gretchyn is off the floor, we miss her because she just has the presence that kind of pulls the team together and she has the magnetism that just makes us successful,” Leach said. “The last two years it’s been a lot better, but the first couple of years it was like every other game she founded out.”
The coach and captain developed a foul-tolerance strategy.
“We’ve been working really hard on you can have four,” the coach said with a laugh. “We try to push like two (fouls) per half.”
Bowman, an all-conference selection last year, has been almost as much an assistant coach as she has a captain and player.
“She goes over if someone is struggling in practice and gives them tips on how she does it or how to move or how to dribble back and do a fade,” noted Leech, who also serves as Alanson’s athletic director. “She is good at reaching out and helping people but not making them feel bad about not knowing how to do it. She is a natural leader, and her presence on the court is definitely going to be missed next year.”
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Gretchyn Bowman, here against Atlanta this week, is expected to lead a much-improved Alanson girls varsity team this season. (Middle) Bowman shoots a free throw during the season opener. (Photos by Danielle Plastino.)