Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Byron Center Savoring Every Day as Program-Best Playoff Run Grows
By
Dean Holzwarth
Special for MHSAA.com
October 23, 2024
BYRON CENTER – Almost every day during the last few weeks, Byron Center boys soccer coach Chad Bays has been asking his players the same thing in an attempt to inspire them.
“The postseason is a new experience, and every time after we survive a game I say, ‘Boys, guess what we get to do that other teams don’t?’” Bays said. “And they yell, ‘Practice!’ Because we don’t want this to be our last practice. We try to build that excitement.”
It’s likely that the question was repeated Tuesday night following a thrilling 2-1 win over Grand Haven in a Division 1 Regional Semifinal. A penalty shootout was needed to decide the winner.
This is the farthest a Byron Center boys soccer team has advanced in MHSAA Tournament, and it’s come on the heels of the program’s first Ottawa-Kent Conference Green championship.
“We’re trying to make history, but taking it one game at a time,” Bulldogs senior keeper Luke Philo said before the Regional Semifinal. “We want to go as far as we can with this group. I’m not ready to be done playing soccer with this group of boys.”
A number of factors contributed to this year’s success.
The program made strides last fall under Bays in his first season at the helm after a stint as the junior varsity coach.
Byron Center finished third in the conference in 2023 – its highest finish in league play – and with a young team.
As this year began, Bays noticed something early on that gave him hope for continued improvement.
“We had tryouts, and for the first time ever, I had a complete team all make the fitness test requirements,” he said. “They came in fit and they came in ready, which was very exciting because we could just hit the ground running.
“I've just really been happy with the amount of growth I've seen in the guys and the amount of work they’ve put in in the offseason, individually.”
Philo said the team was determined to be in the best condition possible before the season started.
“We were always on the field in the offseason running,” he said. “While travel teams practiced, we were on the outside running. Trying to get to that next level. A lot of the guys were in the gym lifting weights and putting on pounds. Just always running trying to get in shape for the season.”
Byron Center has a strength and conditioning program, Bulldog Power. It has become instrumental in the team’s development.
“A lot of guys got bigger and stronger,” Bays said. “Bulldog Power does a great job, and the guys were really committed. We were young last year with a lot of sophomores, and we were getting pushed off the ball. They committed themselves to not letting that happen this year. Their offseason work has really shown.”
Junior midfielder Kaleb Smith, the team’s leading scorer, said there also were high expectations for this season. And the team delivered with an outright title, losing only one O-K Green game and tying another in back-to-back early-October games.
“We always looked at it as if we treat each game like the state championship, then we will continue our season,” Smith said. “And our goals were set pretty high because we knew that we were good enough, and we wanted it. Everyone puts the effort in on and off the field and just works well together.
“Winning the conference was really fun, and this has been a blast. I love all my teammates because they play their hearts out, and it's awesome to be around that.”
Team chemistry has been another important aspect. It’s a tight-knit group that has formed a brotherhood.
“This has been the most fun I've had with soccer in my life for sure,” said Philo, who also was on Byron Center’s Division 2 championship hockey team last winter.
“It’s been a riot, and I love my team. It’s like a family to me, just hanging out with a bunch of my brothers all the time. We love being around each other and it’s so much fun, but we still get results and get the job done.”
Byron Center improved to 17-4-1 on Tuesday and already has established a school record for wins in a season.
Last week, the Bulldogs won a District crown for only the second time in school history.
“We were all hoping we could have this type of success, and I was confident in our coaching staff,” Philo said. “I felt like we had the pieces the last two years but just couldn't figure everything out.
“I had a feeling that we had something special, but we just had to figure out how we were going to play with each other.”
The bond among them has translated to the field, according to Bays.
“They play so well together,” he said. “We defend well and build from the back well. That allows (us) opportunities. We do a pretty darn good job in all three phases of the game.”
Dean Holzwarth has covered primarily high school sports for Grand Rapids-based WOOD-TV for five years after serving at the Grand Rapids Press and MLive for 16 years along with shorter stints at the Ionia Sentinel and WZZM. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Allegan, Kent and Ottawa counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Byron Center players raise their District trophy in celebration last week. (Middle) The Bulldogs take a team photo in front of their net. (Photos courtesy of the Byron Center athletic department.)