Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Paw Paw Following New Coach, Sophomore Standouts to Renewed Success
By
Pam Shebest
Special for MHSAA.com
January 18, 2022
PAW PAW — New coach, new attitude and new results have sparked the Paw Paw girls basketball team to success it has not seen in years.
The new-look Red Wolves (7-2) will battle Otsego (10-1) on Friday, with the winner landing atop the Wolverine Conference.
That's been unvisited territory the last few seasons for Paw Paw, which finished with a 5-12 record last season and 6-15 two years ago.
“I thought they’d be better than the five games (they won) last year,” coach Ernie Ramirez said. “They’re exceeding my expectations right now.”
Two sophomores are instrumental in the turnaround.
At 6-foot-1, Katelyn Baney – who was honorable mention all-state last year – has already received a scholarship offer from Western Michigan University. She averages 13 points, 11.2 rebounds, three steals, 2.6 assists and 1.5 blocks per game.
Because of a broken arm, Addison Roy played just four games during last year’s COVID-shortened season. But the 5-11 sophomore has been putting up numbers on the court this year as well, averaging 11.7 points per game, 12.2 rebounds and 2.5 steals per contest.
Both have tallied five double-doubles, three times posting them together in the same game.
Baney honed her skills practicing with older players, including her sister, Allison, who was a senior when Baney was in third grade.
Ramirez said Baney may be young, but she is long in experience.
“With all the basketball she’s played, travel basketball, multiple games, if you add all those games, it’s probably like a senior’s worth of games,” he said.
“That’s unique. Sometimes all the games outside the school add up to another season.”
The coach said Roy has been a surprise.
“She works hard at her game,” he said. “She’s the one who says, ‘Hey Coach, can I stay 20 or 25 minutes after?’
“She’s going to be that girl who always improves because she works at her game. She is that quiet leader.”
Roy said the way she improves is by listening and watching.
“I try to really focus and be open to what everyone else has to say, take a little piece of advice from everyone because everyone has a little piece of advice to offer to help you become a better player,” she said.
“I also watch my teammates to see if I can do (what they’re doing) too, if it works for them.”
Seniors tasting success
Ramirez is especially happy that the three seniors on the team are experiencing a winning season.
“The girl that’s probably played the most varsity is Taylor Rickli,” he said. “She’s been there through thick and thin, the first girl they had to pull up (to varsity) when she got to high school.
“Jackie Villanueva has always been the ‘rah rah girl’ on the team. Sophia Griffin is also probably tired of having those losing seasons.”
The five juniors on the team are Hannah Conway, Leah Wilder, Sammi Jurgensen, Avery Vogel and Molly McNitt. Freshmen Grace Mitchell and AJ Rickli join them as well.
Baney said the key to this year’s team is “our team is stronger and has a greater knowledge of our sport of basketball.
“I think we click a little better and we all have the ultimate goal of wanting to win.”
Roy added that team chemistry has a lot to do with the Red Wolves’ success
“We all really do get along on and off the court, which helps a lot with playing as a team,” she said.
“I think we’re all sick of losing in any sport. Coming off a losing season makes you want to work harder.”
Baney said after her freshman year, she knows other teams are aware of her on the court: “I feel I do get targeted a lot and double-teamed, but it makes it even better that I’m seen that way through other people’s eyes.”
Ramirez said the sophomore is one of the team captains for a reason.
“You need one of those young people who can work with the middle school kids,” he said. “They see her as an example, not only on the court but off the court, too.
“I see some of the younger kids gravitate to her. She’s a little bit of a stats-stuffer, too.”
Ramirez said the young players are the future of the team, and that future looks bright.
The junior varsity is currently undefeated.
“The JV team pushes the varsity girls to keep playing the way they are because they want to get on varsity,” he said.
“That’s one of those good things where the program as a whole is getting better.”
Paw Paw a good fit
Ramirez, who is a research and development specialist at Zoetis in Kalamazoo, said he was helping a friend do some offseason coaching that included a few girls from Paw Paw.
They mentioned the varsity job might be open.
“I juggled it in my head because I was at Comstock,” he said. “Something pulled me over here.
“I already knew they had a core group of girls who were dedicated to the gym. That’s always a must for me.”
He said by June, he knew it was a good fit because “there were already girls lined up to do summer stuff with me, wanting to do a lot of scrimmaging and whatnot.”
Ramirez said the program’s success is a team effort, and not only from the players.
“I have a great coaching staff; it’s not just me,” he said. “Katie Steers is a new JV coach; my assistant coach Montana Martin is new and came with me from Comstock.
“They all played basketball at Trine University, so they’re a good woman example of teaching how to be a good high school and college athlete. I’m only as good as my coaching staff.”
Pam Shebest served as a sportswriter at the Kalamazoo Gazette from 1985-2009 after 11 years part-time with the Gazette while teaching French and English at White Pigeon High School. She can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Calhoun, Kalamazoo and Van Buren counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Paw Paw sophomores Addison Roy, left, and Katelyn Baney are leading a resurgent varsity this winter. (2) From top: Baney, Roy and coach Ernie Ramirez. (3) Roy gets in position for a rebound against Vicksburg. (4) Baney follows through on a free throw. (Action photos by Brent McNitt/1001 Words Photography. Head shots by Pam Shebest.)