Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Will Carleton Hoops Creates '1 Big Family'
By
Doug Donnelly
Special for MHSAA.com
March 8, 2021
By Doug Donnelly
Special for Second Half
HILLSDALE – The Thielen siblings, with oldest daughter Lizzy and three younger brothers, are getting to do something few families in Michigan have had the opportunity to experience – playing high school basketball together on the same team.
When there weren’t enough girls out for the girls basketball team this winter at Will Carleton Academy in Hillsdale, basketball coach Jason Coward decided to add the girls who would have played for the Cougars to his team.
One of them was Thielen, who has moved back and forth between the junior varsity and varsity boys team – giving her the opportunity to play with all three brothers, sometimes on the same night.
“I would be so sad if I wasn’t able to play basketball this season,” Thielen said. “I really enjoy the opportunity to play with my brothers. Not a lot of girls get to say they did that. I’m thankful I can.”
Will Carleton Academy, with just 50 students, has one of the smallest enrollments of any school in the Michigan High School Athletic Association. They normally have enough players for JV and varsity girls and boys teams and participate annually in the MHSAA postseason.
This year, however, for a variety of reasons including the effects of COVID-19, Coward said only four or five girls were with the program when the season was launched in February.
“Frankly, some of the girls found other things to do,” he said. “It was a long wait to decide if there would even be a season. They grew tired of waiting. We didn’t know. They didn’t know. Some of the girls that we thought were going to play made other plans.”
Coward was familiar with some of the Cougars girls because he coached them in middle school.
“I knew they were good competitors who could play,” he said.
So, instead of putting the girls team on the shelf for the year, he did the next best thing – he put them on the boys team. Thielen, Sophia Crites and Clemmie Gadwood are all regular contributors at the varsity level. Gadwood has started most of the Cougars’ games this season while Thielen and Crites come off the bench and have also split time between the JV and varsity, something that is allowed this season with an MHSAA rule change that allows players to play in five quarters a night.
Coward said there was no hesitation in the girls being part of the team.
“I don’t treat them any differently,” he said. “They are just part of the team. They do everything I ask. They are great teammates and great to have on the team. They run the drills and have gotten so much better.”
Thielen said the transition from the girls game to the boys game wasn’t always easy. Opponents are often bigger, the game somewhat more physical and the boys use a bigger basketball. Still, in the end, it's all just basketball.
Will Carleton Academy is off to a 6-4 start. The Cougars had a four-game winning streak earlier this season, beating Jackson Homeschoolers, Battle Creek Calhoun Christian, Coldwater Pansophia Academy and Litchfield. They’ve beaten Litchfield and Pansophia Academy a second time as well.
In the second win over Litchfield, Gadwood, a sophomore, made four first-quarter 3-pointers and finished with 12 points.
Gadwood and Thielen have brothers on the team. Gabe Gadwood, a senior, averages around 20 points a game and is the team’s top scorer.
Thielen said it helps having brothers on the team.
“We are all one big family,” she said. “We go home at night and talk about our games or practices together.”
On Friday, the Cougars played Britton Deerfield. BD head coach Darren Shiels was impressed with the play of WCA.
“It should really help their girls program,” said Shiels, who has coached at Britton and Britton Deerfield for more than 15 seasons. “Playing against tougher competition always makes you better.”
Will Carleton will conclude its regular season March 19. Before then they have two games with Jackson Prep along with dates with North Adams-Jerome and Waldron. The Cougars are grouped in a Division 4 District at Pittsford that includes undefeated Hillsdale Academy.
The Cougars are not the only school in southeast Michigan to have girls play as part of the boys team. Vandercook Lake is not fielding a girls team this winter. Earlier this year, Shelby Moore knocked down a 3-pointer in a Jayhawks game against East Jackson. She did so on an assist from her brother.
Coward said the school had discussions during the preseason about becoming a co-op with another Hillsdale County school for girls basketball but decided it would be better to incorporate the girls into the Cougars boys team instead.
The girls coach, Lakyn Sattison, became an assistant coach for the boys team – and Coward said the girls and boys varsity teams could practice together next season. For another month they’ll continue to play together as one – thankful for the opportunity to take the floor every night, proudly wearing school colors.
“It’s definitely a different game,” Thielen said. “The game is pretty quick, but it’s a lot of fun. I’ve had to improve my skills. It’s helped me improve my skills. It’s just a different level of competition.
“Sure, I wanted to play with my classmates and other girls in my school, but I’m getting to play. And that’s all that matters.”
Doug Donnelly has served as a sports and news reporter and city editor over 25 years, writing for the Daily Chief-Union in Upper Sandusky, Ohio from 1992-1995, the Monroe Evening News from 1995-2012 and the Adrian Daily Telegram since 2013. He's also written a book on high school basketball in Monroe County and compiles record books for various schools in southeast Michigan. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Will Carleton Academy’s Clemmie Gadwood (12) positions for a possible 3-pointer this season. (Middle) WCA coach Jason Coward huddles with his team. (Photos by Joe Flaherty, Hillsdale Daily News.)