Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Mooney Girls Re-Ignite Proud Program
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
March 14, 2018
The Cardinal Mooney girls basketball season ended last week in the Regional Final with a loss to Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes.
On the surface, for a program with Mooney’s rich history in the past decade-plus, it was disappointing – especially against a longtime rival that went on Tuesday to clinch a Semifinal berth.
But considering the Cardinals didn’t make it to Game 1 of the regular season two years ago, any disappointment was overshadowed by the massive steps forward the program has taken.
“This is about perspective,” Mooney coach Mike Lombard said. “Two years ago, we didn’t even have a varsity program. This year, we went to Allen Park Inter-City Baptist for a Regional Semifinal, were down 12 late and went on an 18-1 run to end the game. Everyone was upset (after the Regional Final loss), but there’s got to be perspective to say that the girls have come a long way.”
Mooney, which played in the Class D Final in 2009 and advanced to the Semifinals in 2008 and 2014, didn’t field a varsity team for the 2015-16 season because of a lack of players. With just seven, the vast majority underclassmen, the Cardinals opted to simply play a JV schedule.
“It was kind of crazy going from being coached by coach (Susan) Everhart, which was a really intense experience, to going backward,” said Lilly Wolf, who played varsity as a sophomore in 2014-15. “I think I kind of knew that eventually in my senior year there would be a varsity team, and it would be better for the program and myself to stick with it.”
It was a tough decision for a proud program, but it appears to have worked out. The Cardinals won the Detroit Catholic League Intersectional title in their first year back, and advanced to the District championship game before losing to Sterling Heights Parkway Christian.
Lombard gave a lot of the credit for that quick rebound to Wolf, who is now a freshman at Saginaw Valley State University.
“We were incredibly lucky that Lilly Wolf stayed with the program,” he said. “We played 22 games last year, and of those 22 games, Lilly would have been the best player on the floor in 17 of them. She bailed us out. We were able to have a little success because of Lilly Wolf, and to a lesser extent Lauren Luzynski and Molly Lombard. Those three girls really saved our bacon. They made basketball look attractive again.”
Mooney’s remaining players took advantage by getting to work in the offseason – not only on the court, but off it, recruiting their classmates to come out for the team.
“We tried to recruit those girls that we knew had played basketball in the past or that were just athletic,” Luzynski, a junior, said. “We just wanted to get people to come out for the team. We wanted to make Mooney great again.”
Building up numbers at a small Class D school was a major step for the program, and this season Mooney finished with 11 on the varsity team and eight on the JV, more than double the number of players in the program two years ago.
“We really had to say to ourselves that we have to start somewhere,” Molly Lombard, a senior, said. “With all of us working hard, we had to say that we have to start somewhere and build something up. I think people want to be part of something like that, and leave a mark on their school.”
Mooney won another Catholic League Intersectional title this season, won a District title and finished 18-6. It was the type of season nobody saw coming two years ago.
“Yeah, it was definitely unexpected,” Luzynski said. “When I came in my freshman year, we barely even had a JV team. We barely had enough girls to have a basketball team. Making such a strong comeback in these last two years was very unexpected.”
There is certainly room still to grow, and the loss to Lakes showed that. It was also a call back to the past, when Mooney and Lakes would battle seemingly every postseason.
“There was some symbolism there, but also I think a dash of realism for the girls who are going to stay in the program,” Mike Lombard said. “That Lakes team puts in a lot of work as Lakes teams always do. Mooney teams have to do the same thing. So I think it was a look to the past, but also a look to the future to see where they want to be and where to get back to.”
Putting in the work should be nothing new for this group of Cardinals, and those who enter the program will have a good example to look to thanks to the teams from the past few years.
“I watched the girls play at Mooney when I was in eighth grade -- I was at their camp in seventh and eighth grade,” Molly Lombard said. “I knew how good they were, and I was hoping to bring that back to Mooney. I feel like we did bring that back to Mooney. We have a JV team now; we have a varsity. We have a new legacy going on at Mooney, and it’s great to be a part of it.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Marine City Cardinal Mooney players stand with their Class D District trophy won two weeks ago. (Middle) Junior Casey Rice puts up a shot this season. (Photos courtesy of the Cardinal Mooney girls basketball program).