Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Seniors Have St Mary on Verge Again
March 12, 2018
By Dennis Chase
Special for Second Half
GAYLORD – Averi Bebble was a water girl when Gaylord St. Mary reached the MHSAA Class D Girls Basketball Quarterfinals in 2012 and 2013.
“That was exciting,” Bebble said, “just as exciting as it is now.”
Now, Bebble is a senior and the Snowbirds are in the Quarterfinals again – for the fourth time in eight years and the second time since Bebble has been on varsity.
This time Bebble is hoping St. Mary (23-1) can reverse a trend when it faces Chassell (24-1) on Tuesday at Sault Ste. Marie
“Every year we‘ve been in the Quarterfinals we’ve lost by one or two points,” she said. “We’re excited to get back and try to beat Chassell.”
The Snowbirds lost by two points to Crystal Falls Forest Park in 2012, by two to Climax-Scotts in 2013 and by one to Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart in 2016.
Bebble and Alex Hunter were starters on the 2016 squad. And now the best friends are the catalysts of a senior-driven team that’s rattled off 23 consecutive wins after a season-opening setback at Clare.
Four seniors start for the Snowbirds.
“That’s huge,” first-year head coach Pat Schultz said. “We have a lot of experience where it matters – handling the ball. We have guards that can control the game for us.”
The 5-foot-3 Hunter and the 5-5-Bebble are joined by 5-4 junior Olivea Jeffers in a three-guard lineup. Hunter was an Associated Press first-team all-state pick a year ago. The tallest starters are 5-7 Maggie Schultz and improving 5-8 center Emily Myler.
To compensate for lack of size, the Snowbirds like to press and run – and then run some more.
“We like to get out in transition, push the tempo,” Schultz said. “Our kids are in good shape. We can get up and down the floor. Plus, we can defend.”
Those are the hallmarks of this team, which is outscoring the opposition by an average of 32 points (61-29). Only two teams, Rudyard and Cedarville, scored more than 50 points, and St. Mary won those two Regional games by 22 and 10 points, respectively.
The Snowbirds played a schedule that included Class B Clare (13-9), Class C Lake City (15-7) and Traverse City St. Francis (17-4) and Class D Bellaire (21-3), Rogers City (18-5) and Cedarville (20-4), which handed Hillman its lone regular-season loss.
After the loss to Clare – “We’d like to have that one back,” Schultz said – the Snowbirds met all challenges.
“We came together as a team around January,” Hunter said. ”Everyone focused on finding their role and realizing what that role was, no matter how big or small.”
By January, the Snowbirds were locked in. St. Mary beat Bellaire, also a Class D quarterfinalist, twice to capture the Ski Valley Conference title.
Bellaire, whose only other loss was to Class B Kalkaska, edged Rogers City in double overtime to claim last week’s Regional. The Snowbirds, meanwhile, defeated Rogers City by 35 in early January to start an impressive five-week run that also included wins over Bellaire (41-39 and 38-32), Lake City (60-35) and St. Francis (41-29). St. Francis, which played in the Class C Final two years ago, won the Lake Michigan Conference this winter.
That five-week window opened some eyes.
“We started to believe we might have something in January,” Schultz said. “But when we went to St. Francis, which is a perennially strong program, and held them to 29 points, well, we walked out of that gym with a little swag that night. I think the girls felt if we can play like this we can play with anyone in Class D.”
Schultz said he can go nine deep in his rotation – juniors Megan Loffer and Emma Jo Cherwinski are usually the first two off the bench – but it’s Hunter and Bebble who set the tone.
Hunter is averaging 13.7 points, 5.4 assists and 3.5 steals a game. She’s shooting 51 percent on two-pointers, 44 percent on three-pointers.
“She’s a great shooter, a pure shooter,” Schultz said. “You give her an open shot and she’s as automatic as any girl.
“She’s a hard worker, too, a disciplined kid.”
Her infectious upbeat attitude rubs off on her teammates.
“Alex is awesome to play with,” Bebble added. “She’s been one of the most committed (players) all the way through school. She’s makes the rest of the team better.”
Hunter’s scoring average is down from a year ago, but that’s more by design as St. Mary has spread the points around.
“I had a super strong season last year, but I realized what this team needs from me isn’t always scoring 20 points a game,” Hunter said. “I’m not scoring as much, but I definitely feel I’ve (contributed more) in other ways to help the team. It’s whatever the team needs each game, whether it be assists, defense, drawing defenders to the corner (to open up the offense).”
Hunter is fourth on the school’s all-time scoring list with 1,260 points. She was fourth in the state a year ago in three-point shooting (46 percent) and is 16th all-time statewide in assists (493) and 35th in steals (375). She’s only missed one game in four years.
Bebble’s scoring average is up as she’s elevated her game. The four-year varsity veteran is averaging 11.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.7 steals and 3.6 assists. She scored a career-high 26 points in the Regional Final.
“Averi’s a unique talent,” Schultz said. “She’s not a pure shooter like Alex, but she is so quick. She can be a nightmare (for opponents).”
Schultz put the ball in Bebble’s hands against Cedarville, utilizing clear-outs to take advantage of her quickness in space. Hunter added 14 in the win.
Bebble also stars on the defensive end.
“She can lock down on defense,” Schultz said. “She’s the definition of a pestering defender. You can’t get rid of her.”
Bebble and Hunter have been playing basketball together since second grade.
“She’s stepped up and had an awesome year,” Hunter said. “It’s all come together for her. She’s super quick, pushes the ball, gets to the rim on anyone – and plays defense on anyone.”
The two play off each other, too.
“I know where Alex is going to be on the court, and she knows where I’m going to be,” Bebble said. “It’s easy between us. We’re always in sync with each other.”
Bebble’s sister, Jada, was on the Quarterfinal teams when Averi was the water girl. Her cousin, Kari Borowiak, was the star player then. Borowiak is now an NAIA All-American at Concordia – she was the only NAIA player to average 20 points and 5.5 assists this season – and she still follows the Snowbirds. Borowiak quickly retweeted a Gaylord Herald Times tweet about Bebble’s efforts against Cedarville.
It’s been quite a first year for Schultz, who formerly coached the junior varsity and was an assistant to Dan Smith the last two seasons. Schultz also coaches the school’s volleyball and softball varsity teams.
“I know these girls,” he said. “This group makes it easy. A lot of people could have come in this year and looked good coaching because this team gets it. I make some adjustments, motivate, and chew on them a little when they need it, but for the most part they make the adjustments that most coaches have to make. They understand and that’s because they’ve played so much basketball, including travel ball. They can auto-correct really well.”
Myler’s developing presence inside, and her ability to guard bigger opponents, has helped alleviate a concern there.
“We’re not a super tall team, but we have posts who work hard,” Hunter said. “Heart over height.”
That will be put to the test Tuesday against a talented and taller Chassell squad that won its first Regional in school history by overcoming a 14-point deficit to beat Bark River-Harris in overtime.
“Chassell’s a great team,” Hunter said. “Anyone left at this point is tough competition. We’re excited for the chance.”
Schultz agreed.
“They’re big, and they’re good,” he said of the Panthers. “We don’t want to allow it to become a half-court game.
“This time of year you have to play well, and you have to have a little luck.”
Who will have that combination Tuesday?
Dennis Chase worked 32 years as a sportswriter at the Traverse City Record-Eagle, including as sports editor from 2000-14. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Gaylord St. Mary’s Averi Bebble drives to the hoop during Thursday’s District Final win over Cedarville. (Middle) The Snowbirds’ Alex Hunter finds an opening to the lane during the 61-51 win. (Photos courtesy of the Gaylord Herald Times.)