Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR

August 6, 2019

By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor

As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”

The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.

This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.

“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.

“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”

MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.

What is the basic MPR formula?

MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.

MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)

The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.

What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?

MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.

MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.

Why use the MPR formula?

Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.

With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.

CALCULATING MPR

What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?

You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).

How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?

Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.

How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?

Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).

For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.

OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.

How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?

Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.

Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.

How often is MPR calculated?

MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.

How much will my MPR change throughout the season?

You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.

My score is missing. How can it be added?

This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.

What are some common errors when calculating MPR?

When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.

What happens if a game is cancelled?

Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.

USING THE WEBSITE

Where can I find game scores?

A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.

“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”

How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?

Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.

The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).

You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.

How do I read the school schedule page?

The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.

Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.

The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.

PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.

'Up North' Powers Add Intrigue in Class D

March 2, 2018

By Dennis Chase
Special for Second Half

TRAVERSE CITY - Can regular-season perfection lead to postseason hardware for the Hillman Tigers?

Will this be the last March Madness hurrah for Frankfort coach Reggie Manville?

Can Buckley, which just pulled off a rare feat, recapture the magic of last season?

Those are three of the intriguing Class D boys basketball storylines in the northern Lower Peninsula as MHSAA tournament play begins next week.

Hillman

It’s been quite a ride for coach Eric Muszynski and his Hillman Tigers.

With a win at Rudyard tonight, Hillman can clinch its second 20-0 regular season in three years.

The Tigers went 20-0 in 2015-16 and nearly equaled that feat last season before suffering a last-second setback to Lincoln Alcona in the regular-season finale.

“A banked, 3-point shot at the buzzer,” Muszynski said, recalling the 65-62 loss.

That defeat snapped Hillman’s 57-game regular season and North Star League win streaks and 43-game home win streak.

How did the Tigers respond? Well, they’ve started new streaks.

With the girls finishing the regular season 19-1, the two squads posted the best combined record among all schools in the state.

“Exciting basketball, exciting times in Hillman,” Muszynski said.

But the girls campaign came to a sudden end Wednesday in a two-point district loss to Rogers City, a team the Tigers beat twice during the regular season.

Now it’s left to the boys to carry the torch.

The fact this team is on another run comes as no surprise. Muszynski returned four starters, plus sixth man Jared Juergens off a 24-2 team.

Four players average in double figures - Juergens (14.8), point guard Brandon Banks (14.2), forward Andrew Funk (10.7) and 6-foot-4 center Kory Henigan (10.1). The fifth starter, forward Billy Kolcan, is the jack of all trades, averaging 7.5 points and a team-leading 4.2 assists and four steals per game. Funk is a 41 percent 3-point shooter.

Henigan is the only junior.

The girls team also featured a senior-laden lineup. Coach John Kuzewski started four seniors and had six contribute – point guard and scoring leader Lyndsey Ryba, Eve LaFleche, Andrea Taratuta, Kristin Kenyon, Jozie Appelgren and Autumn Jones. Ryba, who averaged 17 points a game, signed with Concordia to play basketball and softball. Brooke Jones was the only junior in the starting lineup.

“The girls played as a team and played with a common goal,” Kuzewski said. “I think the two teams pushed each other to do their best.”

Kuzewski just finished his 12th season as head coach. He replaced Muszynski, who stayed on as the boys coach when the girls season switched to winter.

Muszynski is now in his 13th season with the boys. His teams have taken it to a new level the last five years, sporting a 109-7 record. The Tigers reached the Quarterfinals in 2015 and 2017, but ran into three-time Class D champion Powers North Central.

Muszynski is pulling double duty this winter. He also coaches the school’s third and fourth graders. His oldest son, Ty, is a third-grader.

“I’m coaching at our lowest and highest levels,” he said, laughing. “I’m going from breaking presses and running 50 different sets to teaching kids how to dribble and shoot.

“It’s been really refreshing, honestly. For me as a coach, it’s so rewarding because it allows me to go back to an age when I fell in love with the game. It’s been rejuvenating to go back to square one. I’ve even brought my (varsity) players to the (youth) practices to remind them of what it was like when they fell in love with it, too.

“And the young kids really look up to the older guys. It allows them to dream big.”

If Hillman wins its District, the Tigers would play in a regional at Traverse City Central – instead of going north as in previous years. It’s possible Hillman could face Frankfort in a Regional opener.

“They’re really good,” Muszynski said. “That league (Northwest) is such a grind every night.”

First things first, however.

The boys might be reminded about what happened to the girls this week. Hillman’s District opener is at – you guessed it – Rogers City.

Frankfort

And speaking of Frankfort, Manville is not saying publicly if this will be his last season as head coach.

“I’m still debating,” the 71-year-old insisted. “I’ll wait until the end of the season to make a decision. It’s been a fun season.”

Manville’s coached 32 years, including the last seven at Frankfort, where he’s changed the culture. After Thursday night’s 51-31 win over Onekama, Manville is 128-38 at the Northwest Conference school. His teams have won five Districts, three Regionals and three league titles, sharing the Northwest this season with Maple City Glen Lake and Buckley.

Manville spent most of his coaching career in Flint. He started as an assistant at Flint Northern in 1978, the year the Vikings won the Class A title. He would later coach Flint Southwestern for 13 seasons. His last team, featuring Mr. Basketball runner-up Charlie Bell, was ranked No. 1 in the state after the regular season.

“In Charlie’s senior year we won the Saginaw Valley (League) championship and the Flint city championship,” Manville said. “That was the first time the school had ever done that.

“That (mid-1990s) was the era of the Flintstones. There was some really tremendous basketball (played) back then in Flint.”

After that 1996-97 campaign, Manville, who had his 30 years of teaching in, retired to the Lake Michigan community of Elberta, which flanks Frankfort on Betsie Bay.

“I’m an avid fisherman,” Manville said. “I have a cottage on the Au Sable River in Grayling, where I fly fish almost all summer. Here (on Lake Michigan), I love to fish steelhead salmon. That’s what basically brought me (north) – the fishing.

“I’m either in waders or I have a whistle around my neck.”

Manville, who served as village president in Elberta for four years, has had his health issues. He’s had three heart attacks.

“I feel good right now,” he said. “I’m just getting old, that’s all. I turn 72 in June.”

This has been one of the most competitive Northwest Conference races in history. Frankfort lost twice to Glen Lake, Glen Lake lost twice to Buckley and Buckley lost twice to Frankfort.

“Go figure,” Buckley coach Blair Moss said.

Frankfort (18-2) boasts a veteran cast with five seniors in the starting lineup and two others in the rotation. Jaylon Rogers and Matt Loney, who played on varsity as freshmen, are the scoring leaders; Rogers is over 1,200 career points, Loney is closing in on 1,000.

Griffin Kelly and Matt Stefanski - who signed to play football at Northern Michigan and Grand Valley State, respectively – are key cogs as well. Kirk Meyers, the quarterback on Frankfort’s team which reached the Division 8 Regional Finals, rounds out the starting five.

“We’re talented,” Manville said. “We’ve talked about potential the whole year. Potential is great, but it’s like I’ve always said, it’s the championships you win (that define your legacy). Sometimes, talent doesn’t always win.”

The Panthers’ championship quest started Thursday night at Onekama, a team that came into that contest with five losses – two to Buckley, two to Glen Lake and one to Frankfort.

“Onekama’s a really good team,” Manville said. “There’s a misconception our league is weak (after the top three teams). It’s not.”

Frankfort, meanwhile, has proven itself outside the league, too. A month ago, the Panthers snapped McBain’s 59-game regular-season win streak. McBain was ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press’ Class C poll at the time. Back in December, Frankfort edged Traverse City St. Francis, which went on to run the table in the Lake Michigan Conference.

Manville said the team’s goal is to win at least 23 games, which would set a school record. And 23 wins would put the Panthers in the Quarterfinals, a win away from the coveted Final Four. Frankfort reached the Semifinals in 2014.

“It remains to be seen what teams (in the Northwest Conference) are peaking and have a chance to make that run to the Breslin because everybody wants to get to the Final Four,” Manville said. “That’s the big deal.”

But there are no givens.

A year ago, Frankfort had its five-year District title streak end with a two-point loss to Suttons Bay.

And if the Panthers claim a District next week, there’s a potential showdown with unbeaten Hillman in the Regional opener.

“That would be a doozy,” Manville said.

Buckley

When Joey Weber went over 1,000 career points last week in a win over Kingsley, he became the third Buckley senior to accomplish that feat.

Turns out, that appears to be quite rare.

“I’ve never heard of anything like that,” Bears coach Blair Moss said. “You get one, you might get two, but three? That’s crazy.

“I don’t know where you would look (to find out), but I don’t think it’s happened often.”

Glen Lake’s Don Miller, who has been coaching high school basketball since the early 1970s, agreed.

When asked if he could recall it happening previously, Miller responded, “Three in the same class? No.”

Denver Cade and Austin Harris had earlier eclipsed the milestone at Buckley. Cade was the school’s all-time leader with 1,704 points heading into Thursday’s game at Suttons Bay, a 95-75 win. Harris was at 1,417, Weber 1,020.

“When it’s all said and done, they’ll probably be around 4,500 points amongst the three,” Moss said.

Miller had three players on the same team surpass 1,000 career points – Mark Swierad, Rich Baillergeon and Geof Kotila in the 1970s - but Swierad was in a different graduating class.

In fact, Baillergeon (2,144) and Kotila (1,639), Miller said, once had the state record for most points by two classmates before it was broken by Saginaw Buena Vista’s Mark Macon and Shawn Randolph.

Moss scored 1,558 in his playing days at Benzie Central. He graduated in 1974 before the 3-point line was introduced. He had a classmate, Tom Drobena, go over 1,300.

Buckley was on the other end of the 1,000-career point mark Tuesday night when Manton’s Hunter Ruell hit six 3-pointers en route to a 20-point performance in the Rangers’ 75-62 win over the Bears. Ruell’s last triple put him over 1,000.

Buckley finished the regular season 15-5 with Thursday’s win, a year after the Bears went 26-1 and finished runners-up to Powers North Central in Class D.

The Bears, who returned all five starters, started slowly, dropping two games before Christmas break.

“At the beginning of the year I thought we were a little complacent,” Moss said. “Our attitude was we’re just going to show up and win. I said, ‘Gentlemen, that’s not the way it works. What we did last year is last year.’

“We set the bar, and this year everybody was shooting for us. We got everybody’s best game.”

Buckley beefed up its schedule. The losses came against Kalamazoo Hackett, McBain and Manton – all Class C teams that finished the regular season 17-3 – and twice to Frankfort (18-2). The Bears beat Manton, a Class C semifinalist last March, earlier in the season and handed Class C Glen Lake (18-2) its only losses.

“It’s made us better,” Moss said of the schedule.

The Bears are battle-tested – and not just in basketball. This same group played a pivotal role as Buckley reached the Division 4 Semifinals in soccer last fall.

Dennis Chase worked 32 years as a sportswriter at the Traverse City Record-Eagle, including as sports editor from 2000-14. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Hillman’s Brandon Banks looks for an opening during a game this season. (Middle top) Hillman’s Kristin Kenyon puts up a shot over AuGres-Sims defenders. (Middle below) Frankfort coach Reggie Manville instructs his team during a game this season. (Below) Buckley’s 1,000 point scorers: Austin Harris, Joey Weber and Denver Cade. (Hillman photos courtesy of the Alpena News, Frankfort photo courtesy of Nicole Lamerson, Buckley photo courtesy of Ron Stremlow.)