Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Tradition-Rich Kingston Adding to Legacy
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
January 31, 2018
Camryn MacGuire remembers watching Kingston varsity basketball games and dreaming about the day she could be on the court.
Evan Neff enjoyed going to games so much as a kid, he kept coming back even after his family moved away for a few years while he was in middle school.
Now both are leading the way for the Cardinals on the court as the Kingston girls and boys basketball teams are inspiring another group of youngsters in their small town.
“I know a lot of little kids come to our games and are huge fans,” said Neff, a sophomore on the boys team. “I know I’ve talked to a couple eighth graders, and they say they can’t wait to play on varsity with me their sophomore year. I think a lot of the littler kids can’t wait to be a part of it.”
Basketball is king in Kingston, and this winter, Cardinals fans have plenty to cheer about. The girls team was 12-0 heading into Wednesday night’s game against Croswell-Lexington, and ranked No. 1 in Class D by the Detroit Free Press and No. 2 by The Associated Press.
The boys started the season on a nine-game winning streak, and are 11-2.
“I think it’s the same thing wherever you’re going to: if you’re winning, if you’re putting a good product out there, you’re going to see a lot of people there,” boys coach Dave Lester said. “In our little town, it seems like everybody is there for the girls games and guys games. We’ve got a great, great student body. Our home games are electric. It’s a fun atmosphere. It’s fun to coach, and it’s gotta be fun to play.
“It’s what high school sports are all about. I think that atmosphere attracts your younger athletes to want to be a part of it. If they’re there and seeing us win, that’s contagious.”
Lester and girls coach Jay Green have been part of it for the better part of the past three decades, first as players for Kingston and now as coaches.
They played together in the late 1980s, and in Green’s senior year, he helped the boys team reach the MHSAA Quarterfinals.
Green returned to coach the girls team and win four District titles in four years – along with his brother, Dave – during the late 90s. Lester took over the girls program in 2003 and coached the team to the Quarterfinal. The Greens came back to the program in 2011, and Lester took over the boys team midway through the 2013-14 season.
“I think there’s probably a little more passion toward what you do, and what you’re trying to instill into the girls and the boys because you are an alumni,” Jay Green said. “I think both of us could say we were successful alumni in the past. And we both learned under coach Leon Westover when we played, then developed our own ideas, and we have that pride of seeing both the boys and girls doing well.”
Green credits his team’s current success, in part, to the parents in the program, who have taken the time to get their girls to the gym for years and been supportive throughout.
MacGuire agreed.
“My parents, and a bunch of the girls on my team’s parents were always pushing us, and always getting us to play as much as we could,” the point guard said. “They were always telling us that big things were coming. Our starting five is all juniors, and we’ve been playing together since the fourth grade or third grade.”
Kingston’s girls aren’t focused too much on the rankings, or the record, but more on preparing themselves for the postseason. They’ve already scored a win against Class C power Sandusky, and the game against Cros-Lex will provide a test against a strong Class B program. A game against another Class B school, Yale, was postponed because of weather this past Monday.
“I love playing bigger schools,” MacGuire said. “It gives you more competition, and you get to push yourself even more; then it’s even better if you come out with the win. It’s going to benefit us in the tournament.”
Their classmates are providing plenty of support to both teams. MacGuire said there’s been a buzz in the hallways all season, and both she and Neff said their teams make sure to cheer each other on whenever their schedules allow.
“I never really watched girls basketball until seventh or eighth grade when we moved back to Kingston,” Neff said. “I remember watching those teams, and I was really impressed. My eighth grade year, they had like four or five freshmen on varsity, and I knew they were going to be outstanding. Those girls work really hard, and they’re great athletes.”
“We try to make it to as many (boys) games as we can, even the road games,” MacGuire said. “We support each other both ways. It’s a good atmosphere.”
No Kingston team has ever been beyond the Quarterfinals, but the conference and District championships have piled up through the years. And as dedicated players keep walking into the program, it could just be a matter of time before a group of them breaks through.
“It’s just a tradition here, and our kids know it,” Lester said. “When you walk into our gym, there’s tons and tons of basketball banners. We really talk about tradition and how it would be great to continue that tradition and put up more banners.
“Obviously, we would like to make a long run. At some point, you want to win a state championship, but it’s a process. We’ve got some kids who were playing a lot of basketball, putting a lot of time into it. They want to win, and they want to be a part of that tradition.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Kingston’s Carley Smith, left, pushes the ball upcourt while junior Nathan Cloyd, right, launches a shot. (Middle) Gerilyn Carpenter looks for open teammates during a game this season. (Below) Sophomore Evan Neff works to get around a Bad Axe defender. (Photos by Spot On By Shari.)