Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
3rd-Year Standouts Have Howell Rolling
January 9, 2018
By Tim Robinson
Special for Second Half
For the best players on Howell’s boys and girls basketball teams, the third year has been the charm.
Those players, Josh Palo and Lexie Miller, have combined talent and experience with confidence while leading their teams to fast starts this winter.
Palo is averaging 26 points per game for the boys, who are 5-1, while Miller is averaging 25 for the girls, who are 7-1.
Both are in their third full season on the varsity; Palo is a junior while Miller is a senior.
They also have this in common: Both would much rather talk about their team’s accomplishments.
“It’s all about the team,” said Miller, who has signed with Wayne State University. “I think we have improvements to make, but we’ve been watching film and can do better. I think we’ll get there if we keep working hard.”
Miller is part of a Highlanders team which features four seniors, including Miller, who have spent three full seasons on the varsity. They have been playing together for years.
Miller, who is 5-foot-6, also qualified for the MHSAA Division 1 cross country meet as a freshman before turning her attention to basketball fulltime. Her speed allows her to blow by defenders. She’s not afraid to put up 3s, nor is she afraid to drive to the basket.
But Howell girls coach Tim Olszewski said it’s her competitiveness and drive that help make her first among equals, and confidence that has made her a leader.
“(Two years ago) we had Erin Honkala, who would call team meetings and say, ‘Listen, this is exactly how things are going to go,’” Olszewski said. “Last year, as juniors, none of them wanted to grab the reins and do that. This year, we’ve got great senior leadership, with Lexie at the forefront of that. She will say something, and because of the way she conducts herself out on the court, you have to listen.”
Palo, a 6-2 junior, plays both guard positions for the Highlanders and does whatever is needed on defense.
“He’s kind of a jack-of-all-trades,” Howell boys coach Nick Simon says. “We do a lot of switching (on defense) and a lot of different things and he’ll play where needed on defense. He’s guarded the other team’s point guard in a couple of games, and he’s guarded the other team’s center a few times. He’s very knowledgeable about the game, and he understands how to play it. That allows him to guard guys down low and out on the perimeter.”
Palo scored 33 points in an overtime win at Linden in the Highlanders’ season opener, displaying the first results of a busy summer.
“I put in a lot of work over the summer,” he said. “I was always in the gym. Kip (teammate Kip French) has a little gym at his house with a shooting machine, and I was out there shooting every day this summer. That’s why I think I’m doing so much better this year. I have more confidence this year, knowing what I can do, when I can score and when I can get my looks.”
Simon led Howell’s boys to a Class A Quarterfinals four seasons ago. That run included the first time Howell had won a District title in nearly 20 years. The Highlanders have gotten to the Regionals the last two seasons, and Palo says he thinks his team can go farther.
“I really do,” he said. “We’ve got a good group of guys here, and we’re all bought in on what we’ve got to do. We’re going hard in practice every day, trying to get better. Everyone gets their role pretty well, and we always go into games confident. We never think we’re the underdog. We can always pull one out if we need to.”
Howell plays in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association, where boys and girls play at alternate sites on the same night.
As a result, neither Palo nor Miller has seen the other play often – but the rare impressions are lasting ones.
“Josh is really shifty,” Miller said, emphasizing the last word as a compliment. “His moves are really good. He finishes really well. I’m really impressed, honestly.”
“She’s real fast,” Palo said. “She can dribble pretty well. She could spot up and hit some 3s for us.”
Both will have opportunities to see the other play in the postseason. But as of now, they have their own dreams and team goals for which they are striving.
“It’s interesting to have a guy who’s had a breakout year and get him back for another year,” Simon said of Palo. “Traditionally, you see guys peak as seniors, and that’s when they come out of their shell. For a guy who’s in his third year on varsity (as a junior), I think that’s a huge advantage. You’re able to get him out of that shell a little earlier.”
Miller, while being the leading scorer on the Howell girls team, is far from the only offensive threat. Opponents who key on Miller learn that, to their dismay. By the time they adjust, often, Miller makes them pay at a key moment.
“She lives for the big moment,” Olszewski says. “She wants the ball in her hands. She’s definitely an ice-in-the-veins kind of kid, and I would have no problem giving her the ball in any situation at the end of a game.”
Palo and Miller both look to stand out in a team concept, and that drive could well determine the final destination for both teams this winter.
PHOTOS: (Left) Howell’s Josh Palo pushes the ball upcourt during a practice this winter. (Right) Lexie Miller works on her shooting; she’s averaging 25 points per game. (Photos by Tim Robinson.)