Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Glen Lake Hoops Ready to Make Impression
December 1, 2017
By Dennis Chase
Special for Second Half
MAPLE CITY – When the Glen Lake boys basketball team went on a team-building retreat, coach Rich Ruelas asked his players to pick a word that would be their mantra for the season.
Cade Peterson chose “footprint.”
“Coming into my senior year, it hit me,” the three-sport standout said. “This is my last go-around for every sport. I thought, what kind of legacy do I want to leave, that our team wants to leave? It’s like footprints in the sand. How do you want to be remembered? This is a journey. Depending on how we play, how we act, we can be remembered here for years and years and years. That’s a big thing to grasp.”
The Lakers return nine players, including four starters, off an 18-5 squad that reached the Class C Regionals.
They are not the only Glen Lake basketball team that wants to leave a footprint.
The girls return five of their top seven players off a team that went 23-4 and played in the MHSAA Semifinals.
Optimism is high.
“We have experience, and a deep bench,” senior Savannah Peplinski said, reflecting on the team’s strengths. “We’ve all improved our skills. We’re tougher, mentally and physically. We’re focusing on individual things that combined will make us more complex as a team.”
It promises to be an exciting winter on the hardcourt at this Leelanau County school, where basketball tradition runs deep.
Glen Lake won boys Class D state crowns in 1959 and 1977 and was runner-up in 1996. The 1977 team, which upset Detroit East Catholic in the Final, celebrated its 40th anniversary of that championship this summer. The reunion was organized by Hall of Fame coach Don Miller, who has returned to the sidelines as the JV coach.
The Lakers claimed a girls state championship in 1978 and lost a heartbreaker in the 1979 Finals. Glen Lake has produced two of the best players to ever come out of northern Michigan – Laura Wiesen and Liz (Shimek) Moeggenberg, now the JV coach. Wiesen, a math teacher at the high school, is among the all-time assist leaders at Northwestern University while Shimek is Michigan State’s third all-time leading scorer (1,780 points) and the leading all-time rebounder (1,130).
The girls team returned to the spotlight with last season’s tournament run, which ended with a loss to Pewamo-Westphalia in the Semifinals.
Coach Jason Bradford said that run made believers out of his players.
“I told the girls they had the capability to go that far,” Bradford, now in his 10th season, said. “But I don’t think they believed it until they actually did it. It was a confidence builder, making it down (to the Semifinals).”
Peplinski agreed.
“Last year really opened our eyes as to how much talent we do have and how much harder we have to push ourselves to reach our potential,” the 17-year-old said.
A District win over nemesis Traverse City St. Francis, which had played in the Class C Final the previous year, catapulted the Lakers.
“You still have people who think it was luck we made it down there (to the Breslin Center),” Bradford said. “It’s like, you always have to prove yourself. (Because) we made it down there, and return a lot, there’s pressure to repeat, but that’s what the girls want.”
Glen Lake, which tips off its season tonight at Elk Rapids, has a solid nucleus with returnees Peplinski, Jennifer LaCross, Kaitlyn Schaub, Allie Bonzelet and Lily Ewing. LaCross averaged 10.8 points per game a year ago while Peplinski was at 10.1. Schaub, a 6-foot junior, led the team with seven rebounds a game.
“Jennifer is a forward-center, but she can play any position,” Bradford said. “She handles the ball well. She’s hard to guard. Kaitlyn’s our post player. She’s an inside-outside (threat). She has a soft touch around the hoop, and she can step out for a shot. Savannah is going to have the ball in her hands, dictating. She’s a great passer. We’re going to be pushing the ball.”
LaCross, Peplinski, Bonzelet and Schaub all saw time on the varsity as freshmen, Bradford said.
“They’ve played a lot of minutes together,” he said. “It’s a fun group, very unselfish and very supportive of each other. They accept their roles. They want to be part of this team and that’s half of it, if not most of it.”
Bonzelet is one of the top defenders on a team that prides itself on defense.
The Lakers will need to replace leading scorer Kelly Bunek and center Sarah Carney.
“It’s going to be tough to fill those holes,” Peplinski said. “But we’re working at it and building our confidence back up. I think it will be a good season.”
Sophomore Karrigan LaCross and freshman Hailey Helling are stepping in to provide the Lakers with added depth.
Glen Lake, which has won 32 consecutive Northwest Conference games, will be challenged by Kingsley and Benzie Central, which both opened the season with double-digit wins over teams from the larger Big North Conference. Frankfort is traditionally strong, too.
“It’s going to come down to the end,” Bradford said. “We have Frankfort, Benzie and Kingsley to finish the season. That’s a nice way to end it.”
As for the boys, Ruelas challenged his team over the summer. The Lakers competed in tournaments at Benzie Central. Traverse City West, Ferris State and Grand Valley State.
“We wanted a challenge so we got put in the top brackets at Ferris and Grand Valley,” Ruelas said.
Glen Lake won its bracket at Grand Valley and was runner-up at Ferris State.
The Lakers return four starters in seniors Peterson and Nick Apsey, junior Xander Okerlund and sophomore Reece Hazelton. Okerlund averaged 17.5 points and 4.8 rebounds a year ago, while Peterson was at 15.1 points and 9.1 rebounds per contest.
“We have balance, inside and out, length and leadership,” Ruelas said.
Peterson, who has committed to play football at Grand Valley, is 6-5, as is Hazelton. Okerlund measures 6-4.
The Lakers also welcome back 5-7 senior point guard Peyton McDonough, who missed most of last season with a torn meniscus.
“We’re very athletic,” McDonough said. “We can run the floor. We have good shooters - we can drive and kick. We’re a well-rounded team.”
Glen Lake did not win the Northwest Conference last season. That honor went to Buckley, which ran the table. The Bears, who reached the Class D Final, return all five starters. Frankfort also has its top talent back.
“(Our players) know we have great teams in our conference,” Ruelas said. “We don’t throw that in their face. It’s motivation for us to work hard, do the right things and take it step by step.
“If we work together, work hard, have fun and are connected as a team, that’s my goal. I want us to get better every day.”
Connected was the word Ruelas chose at the retreat.
“It’s a we – not a me – mentality,” he said. “We’re trying to live that day in and day out. It’s easy to say, but if we can live it they know the sky’s the limit.”
Peterson said chemistry is one of the Lakers’ strengths.
“We’re more unselfish, more together,” he said.
“Everyone’s really positive and excited for the challenge,” Okerlund added.
McDonough. Peterson and Okerlund are the captains, and all bring something different to the table.
“Peyton’s the vocal leader,” Ruelas said. “He’s challenging everybody to get better every day, even if it’s one percent. Cade brings that competitiveness to the team. He wants his senior class to go out the right way, not have any regrets. Xander leads by example. He works his tail off.”
Glen Lake opens its season Tuesday against St. Francis – the start of a near four-month journey.
“We’re not going to lose sight of the important things,” Ruelas said. “Of course, we want to win the conference, the District, and so on. Every good team wants that.
“But basketball is like every other sport. On any given night, maybe the ball doesn’t fall, things don’t go your way. (Our season) could end in the state championship game or in a District Final. Whenever it ends, we want to look back and say we worked hard, had fun, respected each other and enjoyed the journey. If we walk away knowing that, I can’t think of a reason we would have any regrets. That’s what matters.”
Dennis Chase worked 32 years as a sportswriter at the Traverse City Record-Eagle, including as sports editor from 2000-14. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Savannah Peplinski (left) and Peyton McDonough are among those expected to contribute to strong Glen Lake basketball teams this winter. (Middle) Jennifer LaCross defends against Frankfort last season. (Below) Max Lerchen goes to the basket last winter against Leland. (Girls photos courtesy of Robert Ewing; boys photos courtesy of Don Miller.)