Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Data Dig Continues for Hoops Histories
March 7, 2017
By Ron Pesch
Special for Second Half
There is a list – well actually two – that sit, unfinished, among the “1,001 Projects I’d Like to Complete Before I Die.”
I became the caretaker of these lists back when I inherited the title “Historian for the MHSAA” in 1993.
The original lists contained the scores of all MHSAA Quarterfinal, Semifinal and Final round games for the MHSAA boys and girls basketball tournaments since their origin.
From the 1930s into the late 1960s, the MHSAA tournament game-day program was generally nothing more than a single sheet document, containing tournament brackets and team rosters for the qualifiers.
In 1969, the program saw a redesign by Lansing sports personality Tim Staudt and premiered at the MHSAA Tournament. Sold for 50 cents, it included a list of “Past Michigan State Champions” containing the names of the winning teams and those schools’ basketball coaches for each of the four classes. The publication also included a couple of articles from Dick Kishpaugh, the author of the champions list. Kishpaugh was identified as “Sports Information Director at Kalamazoo College and … perhaps the most knowledgeable historian on Michigan high school basketball.”
With the start of the Girls Basketball Tournament in 1973, a similar program design was followed.
Those lists were faithfully updated and published in the game-day programs in the same format until the 1987-88 school year, when the souvenir publications were expanded. For the first time, a list containing opponents and final scores of the boys and girls championship games was now available to the general public.
Among the first tasks I chose to approach when I assumed the duties of MHSAA historian was to chase more information.
Since Kishpaugh’s lists had game scores for the three final rounds of the tournament, and names of the championship coaches, I thought I would try to leave my mark. I began chasing down the names of coaches for the runner-up, as well as final win-loss records for both schools. And while I was at it, I decided to see what I could find for teams that made the Quarterfinals and Semifinals.
Hundreds of hours have gone into adding to and maintaining the lists, and much progress has been made. Yet, some 20+ years later, I’m still trying to fill holes in the data.
The Basketball Coaches Association of Michigan helped spread the word, notifying its membership of the project. Web pages were created for both the boys and girls to show teams still missing information.
The pursuit has led to friendships, and fascinating stories, documents and images. The late Walter Michael, who had attended the MHSAA Finals for more than 60 years, donated a cache of MHSAA tournament programs from the 1940s through the 1960s that filled in the names of many high school coaches. Del Newell, a sports writer from the Kalamazoo Gazette, knocked out most of the Kalamazoo schools early in my search. Bill Khan, then of the Flint Journal sports department, filled in a large number of missing names and records from the Flint area. The recently retired “Son of Swami,” better known as Mick McCabe, contributed by including the win-loss records of the quarterfinalists in his annual tournament prognostication columns for the Detroit Free Press.
Numerous coaches around the state sent e-mails and letters with the names and records for their predecessors. Prep basketball fans and former players sent along offerings. Rob Madsen from Mt. Pleasant became a huge contributor, and sent regular updates to both lists. He focused on some of the state’s smallest schools, including many from the Upper Peninsula.
Leon Westover sent the win-loss record for little Marlette, 1951 Class C runner-up, as well as one of my favorite photos from that golden era of prep sports. Marlette had “waltzed through the Mid-Thumb League and district, regional and quarter-final tournament games,” wrote Fred J. Vincent of the Port Huron Times-Herald. Marlette slipped past Stanton 41-37 to advance to the Class C title game against unbeaten Detroit St. Andrew.
“Just one game too many …,” continued Vincent, writing from East Lansing’s Jenison Field House following the title game. “That just about explains the one-sided beating Marlette absorbed in the state class C high school basketball final here Saturday afternoon. The final score was 52-26. … One of the smallest teams, physically, in the tournament, it seemed that the Raiders were just worn out.”
Yet, that night, the team was celebrated like the hometown heroes they really were.
Westover’s photo shows the Red Raiders on the night of the Final, gathered at Teale’s Restaurant in Marlette. The clock indicates its 11:30. The owner, George Teale, has opened up his restaurant for the team to cook them steaks in honor of their achievement. Coach Nieland "Tommy" Thompson and his 22-2 squad look happy, ready to celebrate a long season.
At tournament time, these lists help answer media requests that arise.
Question: When was the last time two undefeated teams met for an MHSAA Finals championship?
Answer: 2003-Class A for the girls. Detroit Martin Luther King topped Flint Northern 58-53. 1971-Class C for the boys. Shelby downed Stockbridge 71-57.
Question: What coach had the longest span between championship game appearances?
Answer: Eddie Powers, coach of Detroit Northern, went 34 years between his Class A championship team in 1930 and his runner-up squad in 1964. The mark is asterisked, however, as the Detroit Public School League chose to stop participation in the annual state tournament from 1931 through 1961. Saginaw’s Larry Laeding went 20 years between winning the 1942 Class A championship and his squad’s 1962 Class A title. Maple City Glen Lake coach Don Miller went 19 seasons between the school’s 1977 Class D title and its 1996 runner-up finish, also in Class D.
For the girls, both Mary Cicerone at Bloomfield Hills Marian and Carl Wayer at Ashley went 16 seasons between appearances. While Cicerone’s Marian teams have made seven visits to the Finals and have won six Class A titles, 16 years elapsed between Marian’s 1998 and 2014 Class A championships. Marian then captured a second consecutive title in 2015. Coach Wayer advance two teams to the title game. Ashley finished as runner-up in Class D in 1980 and again in Class D in 1996. The loss in 1996 came in overtime, and was the only defeat for Ashley that season.
Michigan’s high school basketball tournaments are an experience shared, mostly unchanged, since their beginnings. At the end of the regular season, everyone qualifies for the madness. Yet in the end, only four teams finish as champions. The path mimics the magical trail taken by fathers, grandfathers and great grandfathers, mothers and grandmothers. Qualifying for the Quarterfinals is still a huge triumph, as the round brings together only 32 teams from a field of more than 700 boys teams and more than 650 girls teams.
In my eyes, these lists emphasize that remarkable, undiluted achievement. In a world consumed with trophies and the number “1,” perhaps it is time to step back and celebrate this rare journey.
Click for Ron Pesch's data "Needs Lists" for girls basketball and boys basketball.
Ron Pesch has taken an active role in researching the history of MHSAA events since 1985 and began writing for MHSAA Finals programs in 1986, adding additional features and "flashbacks" in 1992. He inherited the title of MHSAA historian from the late Dick Kishpaugh following the 1993-94 school year, and resides in Muskegon. Contact him at [email protected] with ideas for historical articles.
PHOTOS: (Top) Marlette's 1951 boys basketball team gathers for dinner at a local restaurant after the Class C Final. (Middle top) The 1969 Boys Finals saw the addition of updated tournament programs. (Middle below) The 1977 Girls Finals program told of the teams that would meet at Jenison Field House. (Below) The 1947 Boys Finals program was among many that helped fill in data gaps from the early years of the tournament. (Photos provided by Ron Pesch.)