Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 8 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 21, 2024
This forecast for late October never fails:
As expected, championships were celebrated and big playoff pushes were made all over the state during Week 8 of another football regular season that will be over by this time next week.
This week's "Review" details several of those league races now decided, but also the movements of several teams in, or out, of the potential playoff field as we inch closer to Sunday's selection announcement.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Frankenmuth 21, Freeland 20 Frankenmuth (8-0) clinched the Tri-Valley Conference Red title and extended its league winning streak to 66 games, but with Freeland (7-1) providing one of the strongest challenges to the decade-plus run. Logan Diener’s second touchdown, with 3:58 to play, and Aiden Labissoniere’s go-ahead extra point helped put the game, and title, away. Click for more from the Saginaw News.
It's always a heated battle when @FrankenmuthF and Freeland square off!
Freeland battle tested the Eagles going into the second half as they took the lead, 20-14.
However, Frankenmuth would prevail to secure their 13th straight conference title, 21-20. pic.twitter.com/LRV2sjhRyn— Miriam Bingham (@mbinghamreports) October 19, 2024
Watch list Grand Blanc 55, Davison 49 Grand Blanc (7-1) finished a perfect run through the Saginaw Valley League Red by handing Davison its lone Valley loss, although the Cardinals (6-2) finish with Lapeer this week. The Bobcats’ championship was their first since 2021 and came after finishing second to Davison a year ago.
On the move Goodrich 42, Fenton 3 Goodrich (7-1) won the overall Flint Metro League championship game and in doing so handed the Tigers (7-1) their first loss, finished a run of reaching 42 points in all seven league games and gave up a total of 45 points to Metro opponents. Ubly 30, Cass City 12 No one should have thought Ubly (5-3) was going away quietly with its 0-3 start this fall after last season’s Division 8 championship. Those first three opponents are a combined 23-1, and the Bearcats are up to No. 19 on the Division 8 playoff point list. Midland Dow 23, Lapeer 14 Dow (5-3) has won five of its last six games to jump into the Division 2 playoff picture for the first time this season, moving up seven spots to No. 26 while sending Lapeer to 5-3 and the No. 24 position on the Division 1 list.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Detroit Cass Tech 30, Detroit Martin Luther King 14 Cass Tech (6-2) again broke the recent trend in this rivalry, taking the Detroit Public School Blue City championship after King won their first meeting this season and finished with the PSL Blue regular-season title. It was the second time in three years the Technicians have avenged a King loss from a month earlier, and also only the second time in five years that the winner of the first matchup didn’t finish with a sweep. Cass Tech’s Alex Graham scored on a kickoff return and catching a pass as the Technicians reached the end zone three times through the air. Click for more from the Detroit News.
Check out the highlights of Detroit Cass Tech (@Detroit_CTFB) winning the City Championship for the 3rd straight year over rival King on October 18th, 2024. Powered by @altaequipment pic.twitter.com/ii4R1afVTH
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) October 19, 2024
Watch list Detroit Central 22, Detroit Denby 18 Central (6-2) has won six straight games and avenged a pair of losses from last season to Denby (5-3) to take the PSL Gold City championship after these two shared the regular-season title. The Trail Blazers gave up six points total with four shutouts over five division games and cooled a Denby offense that was averaging 33 points per game.
On the move Gibraltar Carlson 42, Allen Park 0 Carlson (7-1) clinched a share of the Downriver League title, its fourth straight, with Allen Park (6-2) holding out hope for a share as well if Lincoln Park can catch the Marauders this week. Clarkston Everest Collegiate 42, Royal Oak Shrine Catholic 3 The Mountaineers (8-0) finished off an outright title run in the Catholic High School League Intersectional #2, their second straight as they ran their league game winning streak to 12 with a seventh in a row over Shrine (6-2) – which has guaranteed its best record since 2020. Belleville 31, Dearborn Fordson 0 Belleville (8-0) closed out an eighth-straight league title by finishing another sweep of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East, with this the Tigers’ second-straight shutout and third over seven KLAA games. Walled Lake Western 20, Mason 17 Walled Lake Western (8-0) entered the week No. 2 in the Division 3 coaches poll, and Mason (6-2) was No. 6 and had won both matchups with the Warriors last season including in a Regional Final.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER Howell 36, Brighton 14 The Highlanders (8-0) completed a KLAA West outright championship, defeating Brighton (6-2) for the second-straight season to avoid what would have been a shared league title with the Bulldogs. Justin Jones ran for three touchdowns and caught a fourth to pace Howell, which faces Belleville this week in the overall KLAA championship game. Click for more from the Livingston Daily Press & Argus.
Watch list Portland 33, Lansing Sexton 0 Portland coach John Novara reached 200 career wins as the Raiders (8-0) finished another perfect run through the Capital Area Activities Conference White, extending their league game winning streak to 20. The shutout kept Portland at No. 9 on the Division 4 playoff list and Sexton (4-4) just outside the field at No. 34.
On the move Clare 54, Pinconning 28 After sharing the Jack Pine Conference Division 1 title, Clare (7-1) won this matchup with JPC Division 2 runner-up Pinconning (5-3) to move up to No. 11 on the Division 5 playoff list. Ionia 16, St. Johns 13 After this close win over St. Johns (5-3), the Bulldogs (5-3) are a win away from guaranteeing their best record since 2013 with rival Lake Odessa Lakewood up next. Olivet 27, Lansing Catholic 14 Olivet has two wins over Lansing Catholic (5-3) in two seasons in the CAAC White, with this one giving the Eagles (6-2) second place in the league and sending the Cougars into a tie for third.
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER East Jordan 33, Frankfort 6 This could pay off in multiple ways for East Jordan (6-2). The Red Devils can continue to hold out hope of a title share in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy (if Mancelona defeats first-place Maple City Glen Lake this week), and East Jordan also jumped past Frankfort on the Division 8 playoff list after trailing the Panthers (6-2) by one position entering Friday. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Watch list Ogemaw Heights 64, Harrison 28 The JPC Division 1 co-champion Ogemaw Heights (7-1) handed Division 2 winner Harrison (7-1) its first loss and scored a season high in bouncing back from a Week 6 defeat to Standish-Sterling.
On the move Boyne City 36, Oscoda 0 Boyne City (6-2) has climbed the Division 6 playoff list for the fourth-straight week, this time up to No. 18 while sending Oscoda (5-3) down only two slots to No. 30 in Division 7. Maple City Glen Lake 32, Saginaw Valley Lutheran 13 Glen Lake (7-1) has put together its best season since 2019 and heads into a potential outright league title clincher after a solid win over the Chargers (4-4). Manistee 65, Montague 32 Manistee (5-4) moved up from No. 30 to 24 on the Division 6 playoff list and moved Montague (3-5) from 31 to just outside the field at No. 33.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Hudson 22, Clinton 6 Hudson (7-1) has a share of the Lenawee County Athletic Association championship and winless Hillsdale to play this week to make it outright, while Clinton and Ida are tied for second and likely the newest Hillsdale fans. Clinton (6-2) had won 24 straight LCAA games and the last two league titles. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Watch list Ottawa Lake Whiteford 30, White Pigeon 16 On paper, Whiteford (4-4) has had a tougher run than usual this fall. But its losses are to teams that are a combined 31-2, and the Bobcats are up to No. 21 on the Division 7 playoff list after handing White Pigeon (7-1) its lone defeat.
On the move Hanover-Horton 28, Brooklyn Columbia Central 19 The Cascades Conference West title belongs entirely to Hanover-Horton (8-0) as the Comets clinched it outright in sending Columbia Central (3-5) into third place and avoiding a potential three-team share. Grass Lake 28, Leslie 7 Leslie (7-1) already had the Cascades Conference East outright title in hand, but this is major win for Grass Lake (5-3) nonetheless as it bumped the Warriors up four spots to No. 37 on the Division 6 playoff list. Chelsea 21, Trenton 20 Division 4 contender Chelsea (7-1) needed a score during the final minutes to get past the Trojans (5-3), who remain No. 11 on the Division 3 playoff list.
Southwest Border
HEADLINER Kalamazoo United 35, Parchment 13 In a matchup of tough defenses, United’s was able to hold its ground most and slowed a Parchment offense that was averaging 42 points per game. In doing so, the Titans (7-1) clinched the outright Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore championship, sending the Panthers (6-2) to second place with their only league defeat. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Watch list Mattawan 42, Kalamazoo Central 20 Over the last two weeks, Mattawan (5-3) has defeated leaders of both the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West and now East, in the process jumping from No. 39 two weeks ago to No. 22 on the Division 2 playoff list. Central (5-3) is tied for first in the East and plays Loy Norrix this week for that outright title.
On the move Decatur 18, Hopkins 0 Decatur (7-1) may have fallen eight points shy of catching champion White Pigeon in the Southwest 10 Conference, but it earned this win over Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver co-leader Hopkins (6-2) to guarantee its winningest season since 2014. Portage Northern 45, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 0 The SMAC West could send four of its five teams to the playoffs, with this win over the Knights (5-3) bumping Northern (5-3) up to No. 21 on the Division 2 playoff list. Lawton 26, Saugatuck 10 Lawton (6-2) concluded the SAC Valley schedule by winning this matchup for second in the standings, further solidifying itself in the middle of the Division 7 field while Saugatuck (5-3) occupies the same in Division 8.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Kingsford 13, Menominee 12 This season’s Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper race couldn’t have been much closer, with champion Kingsford (8-0) edging Menominee (7-1) this time to go with its two-point win over Negaunee in Week 4. The Flivvers will face Marquette this week as they play for a perfect regular season. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Watch list Calumet 19, Gladstone 6 While just a notch below contending in the Copper, Calumet (5-3) gave Kingsford a 14-point game in Week 5 and won its three games since. The Copper Kings climbed the Division 6 playoff list for the third straight week, now to No. 26.
On the move Iron Mountain 42, Manistique 21 The Mountaineers (8-0) pulled within a win of a potential second-straight undefeated regular season. L’Anse 40, Gwinn 22 L’Anse not only reversed a 33-6 loss to Gwinn from Week 3, but ended a 15-game losing streak stretching back to 2022. Marquette 41, Cadillac 32 The Sentinels (6-2) bounced back from a heartbreaker against Petoskey to surpass last year’s victory total. Despite the loss, Cadillac (4-4) actually moved up a spot on the Division 3 playoff list, to No. 27.
West Michigan
HEADLINER Grand Rapids West Catholic 54, Hamilton 14 After edging Ada Forest Hills Eastern by a point to take over first place alone in the O-K White in Week 7, West Catholic (6-2) sent Hamilton into third place and clinched the outright championship – its second straight after winning the O-K Blue outright last season. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Watch list Byron Center 17, Muskegon 14 With Byron Center’s move into the O-K Green this season, these two met for the first time since 2017 – and the Bulldogs (7-1) put a serious dent in the reigning Division 2 champion’s hopes of extending its playoff qualification streak that began in 2000.
On the move Grand Rapids Northview 35, Holland Christian 20 Northview (8-0) finished an outright title run in the O-K Black while sending Holland Christian to 6-2. East Grand Rapids 31, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 28 East Grand Rapids (5-3) made second place in the O-K Black a three-team share with this win over the Cougars (5-3) in their first meeting since 2016. Big Rapids 24, Coopersville 7 Fresh off wrapping up a league title in Week 7, Big Rapids (7-1) handed a loss to River Cities Alliance co-leader Coopersville (5-3), which plays Cedar Springs this week for a potential outright league title.
8-Player
HEADLINER Climax-Scotts 46, Mendon 44 The Panthers (7-1) are outright Southern Central Athletic Association Red champions after handing the lone loss this fall to Mendon (7-1), with Jackson Bagwell scoring on a four-yard run and adding the winning 2-point conversion run with 55 seconds to play. Climax-Scotts scored first, and the teams then traded touchdowns all the way until the Panthers scored last. Click for more from WWMT.
Watch list Bay City All Saints 61, Kinde North Huron 22 The Cougars’ only loss this season came in Week 1 – to still-undefeated Deckerville – and they are Big Thumb Conference Red champions after this impressive winner-take-all performance against former co-leader North Huron (6-2).
On the move Pittsford 46, Waldron 14 The SCAA Blue belongs entirely to Pittsford (7-1), which clinched a share of the championship in Week 7 but needed to get past third-place Waldron (5-3) to finish the perfect run. Pickford 51, Norway 6 Pickford (8-0) clinched a share of the Great Lakes Eight Conference East title in this matchup of previous co-leaders. The Pirates may need to defeat third-place (tied) Munising this week to clinch it outright, with Norway (6-2) hoping to share with a win over the other third-place team, Rudyard, and a Munising victory. Indian River Inland Lakes 64, Bellaire 12 Inland Lakes (8-0) will play co-leader Gaylord St. Mary for the Ski Valley Conference title this week after turning back third-place Bellaire (6-2).
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PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Cass Tech’s Alex Graham pulls away for a touchdown against Detroit Martin Luther King at Ford Field. (Middle) Grand Blanc’s Caseton Sendry (18) eludes a pair of Davison defenders. (Below) East Grand Rapids’ Carson Thornton (8) finds a gap in the Grand Rapids Catholic Central defense. (Top photo by Olivia B. Photography. Grand Blanc/Davison photo by Terry Lyons. EGR/Catholic Central photo by Michigan Sports Photo.)