Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 5 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 30, 2024
We have our first league champions of the 2024 Michigan high school football season. And we have several more who could join them soon.
We highlight many of both below in our discussion of Week 5 and as we moved past the midway point of the regular season. That being the case, you’ll also notice several references to playoff-point average and positioning, a growing theme of note as we continue into the final four weeks before this year’s brackets are selected Oct. 27.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Port Huron Northern 30, Port Huron 23 After an 0-2 start this season, Northern has won all three of its league games and can clinch a share of the Macomb Area Conference Blue title against Fraser this week. Lincoln Watkins scored the go-ahead points with 3:26 to play, and Mailk Thompson had two interceptions over the final 2:54 as Northern avenged last season’s 34-0 loss to the Red Hawks (3-2). Click for from the Port Huron Times Herald.
Watch list Saginaw Heritage 10, Lapeer 7 Despite an 0-2 start in Saginaw Valley League Red play, Heritage (3-2) isn’t going away. The Hawks will need major some help to climb back into the league title race, but handing Lapeer (4-1) its first loss was the right start.
On the move Almont 28, Croswell-Lexington 14 This along with Armada’s big win over Yale set up an Almont/Armada matchup this week for first place in the Blue Water Area Conference. Almont (5-0) is the reigning champ and Cros-Lex (3-2) was the runner-up last year. Chesaning 17, Birch Run 9 Chesaning is 5-0 for the first time since its Division 4 championship season of 2001 and will see the other top three teams in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference over the next three weeks after sending Birch Run to 2-3. Grand Blanc 35, Lansing Everett 21 The Bobcats (4-1) continued an impressive surge by handing Everett (4-1) its first loss. Grand Blanc has jumped from No. 21 to No. 10 in Division 1 playoff-point average over the last two weeks.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Detroit Catholic Central 31, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 14 Sunday’s Boys Bowl victory put Detroit Catholic Central (5-0) within one more win of clinching a share of the Catholic High School League Central title. DCC jumped out to a 21-0 first-half lead, and Samson Gash scored three times as the Shamrocks ended a three-game losing streak against the Pilots (3-2). Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Watch list Lake Orion 28, Rochester Adams 25 Lake Orion (4-1) impressed with a season-opening win over Northville, lost a tough one to much-improved Oxford in Week 4, but bounced back to stop a charging Adams team (4-1). The Oakland Activities Association Red race remains wide open as the Dragons seek to repeat.
On the move Riverview 52, Flat Rock 45 Riverview (5-0) will face Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central this week for first in the Huron League after downing another former co-leader Flat Rock (4-1) with a go-ahead touchdown during the final seconds. Warren Fitzgerald 18, Madison Heights Lamphere 7 Fitzgerald started this season 0-2 but can clinch a share of the MAC Gold title this week after handing a first loss to Lamphere (4-1), which entered the game atop the statewide Division 4 playoff-point average list. Birmingham Groves 28, Harper Woods 12 Groves (5-0) clinched a share of the Oakland Activities Association White title after finishing second a year ago, when league opponents Harper Woods and Southfield Arts & Technology both went on to win MHSAA Finals championships.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER DeWitt 42, East Lansing 35 Although this was only their second league game, the high-scoring Panthers (5-0) put themselves in position to take back the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title for the first time since 2021 and also moved into the top spot for statewide Division 3 playoff-point average. Trav Moore scored three times, and the Panthers made a last-minute defensive stand as DeWitt defeated reigning league champ East Lansing (3-2) in the teams’ third-straight meeting decided by seven points or fewer. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Watch list Leslie 45, Manchester 28 It’s still early in the Cascades Conference East schedule as well, but Leslie stands alone on top after handing Manchester (4-1) its first defeat. The Blackhawks finished 4-5 and fifth in the league a year ago.
On the move Portland 35, Lansing Catholic 14 The two-time reigning champ Raiders (5-0) extended their CAAC White winning streak to 17 as they moved into first place alone thanks to a third-straight victory over the Cougars (3-2). Howell 27, Northville 12 The Highlanders (5-0) already have outdone their finishes from the last two seasons and are tied for first in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West after this win over reigning champion Northville (2-3). Ovid-Elsie 42, Montrose 7 The Marauders (5-0) kept pace with Chesaning in the MMAC and put Montrose a game back in avenging last year’s 29-22 loss to the Rams (3-2).
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Traverse City St. Francis 49, Kingsley 20 As stated in Friday’s preview, the winner of this showdown would emerge as the likely favorite in the Northern Michigan Football League Legends, and St. Francis (4-1) can now clinch a share of the title this week at Cheboygan. The Gladiators broke away after taking a 22-14 lead into halftime to avenge a 44-21 loss to the Stags (3-2) from last season. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Watch list Ogemaw Heights 41, Clare 34 In its first season in the Jack Pine Conference, Ogemaw Heights (5-0) edged an annual favorite to pull within a win of clinching a share of the JPC Division 1 title. Ogemaw moved past Clare (4-1) with the go-ahead score with 1:08 to play.
On the move Maple City Glen Lake 7, East Jordan 6 Glen Lake (4-1) can clinch a share of the NMFL Legacy title this week after handing East Jordan (3-2) its second one-score loss in as many weeks. Traverse City Central 21, Midland Dow 7 Central (2-3) pulled Dow (2-3) out of the shared lead in the SVL Blue and also moved up substantially in Division 2 playoff-point average after three straight losses to start this month. Charlevoix 34, Benzie Central 14 Charlevoix (3-2) is one win from clinching the NMFL Leaders championship for the second-straight season after defeating last year’s league runner-up Benzie (2-3).
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Petersburg Summerfield 20, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 14 The final Tri-County Conference championship in football may be headed to Summerfield (4-1), which can clinch a share of its eighth championship in this league either this week (if Whiteford defeats Erie Mason) or next (with a win over Erie Mason) after its first win over Whiteford (2-3) since their 2020 District Final. The Bulldogs scored the only touchdown of the second half and made an impressive defensive stand, especially considering Whiteford had scored at least 42 points every meeting during a four-game winning streak in the rivalry. Click for more from the Monroe News.
Summerfield 🏈 spoiled Whiteford's Homecoming festivities by posting a 20-14 triumph. pic.twitter.com/BQWtQrwLsD
— BCSN (@BCSNsports) September 29, 2024
Watch list Ypsilanti Community 27, Jackson 20 Ypsilanti Community (2-3) tied its win total from last season and moved into the No. 32 spot on the Division 3 playoff-point average list with its first win over Jackson since the Vikings (4-1) joined the Southeastern Conference in 2018. The Grizzlies also have losses by only five and one point as they seek their first winning season since 2014.
On the move Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 32, Milan 0 As noted above, SMCC (5-0) will face Riverview this week for first in the Huron League, and coming off its third-straight shutout. Hudson 44, Blissfield 6 After opening this season with a loss, Hudson (4-1) continues to roll and sits tied for Clinton atop the Lenawee County Athletic Association. Napoleon 30, Grass Lake 26 The reigning champion in the Cascades Conference East, Napoleon (3-2) bounced back from a Week 4 loss and could make the standings messy this week against leader Leslie and with Grass Lake (3-2) also in the mix still as well.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER Parchment 32, South Haven 0 With its third shutout of the season, Parchment (4-1) advanced its best start since 2017 and avenged last year’s 52-20 loss to South Haven (2-3). The Panthers amassed nearly 500 yards of offense and are one of three teams tied for first early in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Watch list Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 6, Battle Creek Central 0 The Knights (3-2) already have guaranteed their best finish since 2012 and after winning a combined three games over the last four seasons. They returned to the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference this fall after four seasons as an independent.
On the move Portage Central 7, Mattawan 0 Portage Central (3-2) remains one of three teams without a league loss early in the SMAC East, despite a significant push from the Wildcats (2-3). Union City 35, Sand Creek 14 Union City (5-0) joins Bronson and Springport atop the Big 8 Conference standings and plays them back-to-back, respectively, over the next two weeks. Dowagiac 63, Benton Harbor 6 After a few rough seasons to start this decade, Dowagiac is 4-1 for the second season in a row – and seeking to improve on last fall’s 5-4 finish.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Escanaba 62, Grayling 21 With its highest-scoring game since 2009, Escanaba (3-2) guaranteed its best finish since 2019 after winning two games apiece the last two seasons. All three Escanaba victories this fall have avenged losses from a year ago; Grayling won last season’s meeting 37-30. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Watch list West Iron County 24, Gwinn 16 (2 OT) West Iron had a rough go over the last three seasons, winning just one game total. But in avenging two losses to Gwinn (2-3) from a year ago, the Wykons (2-3) have guaranteed their best finish since 2020.
On the move Iron Mountain 63, L’Anse 8 The Mountaineers (5-0) clinched a share of the Western Peninsula Activities Conference Iron championship and ran their regular-season winning streak to 22. Ishpeming Westwood 42, Gladstone 15 The Patriots (2-3) have doubled their win total from a year ago in avenging last year’s 49-8 loss to Gladstone. Kingsford 14, Calumet 0 The Flivvers (5-0) posted their third shutout in five games but also ran into a strong defensive effort from the Copper Kings (2-3), who held Kingsford to a season low.
West Michigan
HEADLINER Hudsonville Unity Christian 20, Zeeland West 8 These two entered the weekend among 28 undefeated teams statewide, and Unity (5-0) finished the weekend leading an Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold that also includes among six teams three at 4-1 and a fourth at 3-2. Unity scored a season low, but also joined Mona Shores as the only teams to keep the Dux (4-1) to single digits over the last five seasons. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Watch list Jenison 15, Rockford 14 If the season ended today, Jenison (2-3) would be in the playoffs for the first time since 2018 (not counting 2020, when nearly every team qualified because of COVID-19). This will be an unforgettable win from coach Josh Lucas’ first season as it broke a 12-game losing streak to the Rams (3-2) that began in 2006.
On the move Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 34, Grand Rapids South Christian 13 South Christian (4-1) also entered the weekend among the undefeated, but reigning Division 3 champion FHC (4-1) did its part to also shake up the O-K Gold standings. Muskegon Mona Shores 42, Muskegon 27 The Sailors (5-0) ended a five-game losing streak against the Big Reds (1-3) that included regular-season and playoff defeats in 2023. Lowell 28, Cedar Springs 14 The Red Arrows (3-2) were another team to hand out a first loss this week, to the Red Hawks (4-1), and did so for the second consecutive week after delivering Marquette its first defeat as well in Week 4.
8-Player
HEADLINER Burr Oak 60, Waldron 34 After last scoring 60 pints in 2020, Burr Oak (4-1) did so for the third time this fall in handing Waldron (4-1) its first loss. The last time Burr Oak had defeated the Spartans also was in 2020. And keep an eye on this storyline: The Bobcats’ next two opponents are both 1-4, and two more wins would guarantee Burr Oak its best finish since 1974, according to Michigan-Football.com. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.
Watch list Morrice 22, Fulton 0 The Orioles (4-1) bounced back from their first loss with their second shutout of the season, handing a first defeat to the Pirates (4-1) – who were averaging nearly 58 points per game.
On the move Brown City 26, Kingston 16 Brown City supporters may have just become Kingston’s biggest fans outside the Cardinals’ hometown as this Green Devils (4-1) win kept them in the Big Thumb Conference Blue race – as long as Kingston (4-1) can defeat league leader Deckerville in two weeks. Gobles 38, Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 8 Gobles (5-0) handed NorthPointe its first in-state loss this season in avenging last year’s defeat by the Mustangs (3-2). Indian River Inland Lakes 30, Ishpeming 22 Inland Lakes (5-0) held on for its closest regular-season victory this fall. Ishpeming (3-2), meanwhile, faced an undefeated opponent for the third-straight week. Britton Deerfield 48, Adrian Lenawee Christian 26 Britton Deerfield (4-1) clinched a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association White championship with its first win over Lenawee Christian since 2014.
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PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Catholic Central’s Samson Gash reaches the end zone during his team’s win over Warren De La Salle Collegiate. (2) DeWitt’s Jadon Bender (11) cuts back between East Lansing defenders. (3) Negaunee's Brady Mager (4) takes on Hancock's Ethan Anderson (45) during the Miners’ 48-20 win. (4) Perry defenders pursue a Bath ball carrier during the Bees’ 40-0 victory. (Top photo by Adam Sheehan. DeWitt/East Lansing photo by Terry Lyons. Negaunee/Hancock photo by Cara Kamps. Perry/Bath photo by John Johnson.)