Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 4 in Review
September 18, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Streaks were broken, upsets were hatched, and significant steps toward league titles were taken all over Michigan during a Week 4 full of the unexpected.
See below for the results that popped off the page in every region of our state and on the 8-player scene as changes of the guard began to take hold from Detroit to Muskegon to the Lake Huron coast and across the middle of the Upper Peninsula.
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Bay & Thumb
Saginaw Swan Valley 21, Freeland 14
Freeland had won 24 straight regular-season games since its loss to Swan Valley in Week 6 of 2014, and the Vikings (3-1) surely enjoyed this even a little more after also falling in the playoffs to the Falcons (3-1) last fall. Swan Valley got the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter and now sits tied with Alma atop the Tri-Valley Conference Central standings. Click for more from the Saginaw News.
Also noted:
Beaverton 33, Houghton Lake 25 – The Beavers (4-0) are now off to their best start since 1984 and with a key obstacle overcome in the Jack Pine Conference; Houghton Lake (2-2) was a playoff team last season.
Fenton 48, Linden 13 – Although not close for the first time in a few years, downing the rival Eagles (3-1) could eventually result in Fenton (4-0) winning its seventh straight Flint Metro League title.
Lake Fenton 20, Goodrich 7 – The reigning Genesee Area Conference Red champion Blue Devils (3-1) now have two contenders out of the way as Goodrich (3-1) has bounced back nicely from going 0-9 in 2016.
Marine City 35, Marysville 7 – The Mariners (4-0) equaled their win total from last year’s rare non-playoff season and should feel pretty comfortable in the Macomb Area Conference Gold with this win over the reigning champion Vikings (2-2) to go with an earlier one over 2016 runner-up Port Huron Northern.
Greater Detroit
West Bloomfield 37, Clarkston 16
After close losses to Walled Lake Western and Bloomfield Hills to open this season, West Bloomfield is hitting stride. The Lakers (2-2) got back into the Oakland Activities Association Red hunt by downing the reigning co-champion Wolves (3-1) as standout quarterback Bryce Veasley again posted massive passing numbers and the West Bloomfield defense improved by 26 points from last year’s meeting. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Also noted:
Waterford Mott 47, Walled Lake Western 37 – Mott (3-1) quietly is working toward a fourth straight playoff season, but ending an 11-game regular-season winning streak for the reigning Division 2 runner-up Warriors (3-1) remained a headline-grabber nonetheless.
Utica Eisenhower 49, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 42 – Winning the prestigious MAC Red is a multi-step process, and this was a significant one as Eisenhower (4-0) seeks to repeat as champion and Chippewa Valley (3-1) is always among contenders.
Ferndale 17, Detroit Country Day 7 – The Eagles (3-1) are building off last season’s first playoff berth since 2008 with a great start now highlighted with their best win in at least a decade; reigning Division 4 runner-up Country Day (1-3) has three defeats by 13 points or fewer.
Oak Park 34, Birmingham Groves 14 – After falling to Groves (3-1) by just a point last season, Oak Park (3-1) could be headed toward winning the OAA White this time after a victory over the reigning champ.
Mid-Michigan
Grand Ledge 27, Lansing Sexton 14
Grand Ledge remains the arguable favorite in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue as it seeks a third straight league title. The Big Reds (3-1) remain in discussion of the Lansing area’s best teams, but Grand Ledge pushed its lead to 20 midway through the fourth quarter and now has three solid wins to go with a Week 2 loss to DeWitt. Undefeated Okemos is next up. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Beal City 16, Leroy Pine River 7 – The Aggies (3-1) are working toward taking back the Highland Conference title after avenging last year’s 34-7 loss to reigning league champion Pine River (0-4).
Fulton 26, Fowler 20 – This rivalry game frequently is followed by a rematch in the playoffs, and the Pirates (3-1) now have a much better chance of making it back for the first time 2014 after equaling their win total of each of the last two years while knocking Fowler down to 2-2.
Lake Odessa Lakewood 36, Vermontville Maple Valley 7 – Maple Valley’s 3-1 start and best season already since 2014 are still worth celebrating, but the Greater Lansing Activities Conference looks like it will come down again to reigning champion Lakewood (4-0) and Olivet.
Lansing Catholic 35, Williamston 34 – The Cougars (4-0) squeaked out this CAAC White win to give this week’s matchup with Portland major title implications; Williamston (2-2) is just outside after also losing to Portland by only seven in Week 3.
Northern Lower Peninsula
AuGres-Sims 48, Lincoln Alcona 46
AuGres-Sims’ offense caught up after losing to Alcona 58-20 a year ago, with this win putting the Wolverines at 4-0 for the first time since 2006. The Wolverines are averaging 46 points per game this season, 11 more than a year ago when they finished 7-3. Alcona (3-1) will need some help now to repeat as North Star League champion; the Tigers didn’t lose in the league last season. Click for more from the Alpena News.
Also noted:
Alpena 23, Cadillac 14 – The Wildcats (2-2) had only two wins a year ago, and now have two plus two close losses as they play for their first winning record since 2004; Cadillac (1-3) has a tough road ahead starting with undefeated Wyoming Godwin Heights next.
Elk Rapids 17, Kalkaska 0 – The Elks have gone from no wins in 2015 to two last season and now stand 3-1 this fall after bouncing back from a Week 3 loss to hand Kalkaska (3-1) its first.
Gaylord St. Mary 20, Whittemore-Prescott 12 – The Snowbirds (4-0) continued to prep for a strong league slate by handing a second straight defeat to annual playoff team W-P (2-2).
McBain 34, Evart 10 – McBain (3-1) bounced back from a Lake City loss in Week 3 to down another playoff hopeful in the Wildcats (2-2).
Southeast & Border
Brooklyn Columbia Central 46, Ida 38
While Columbia Central had put together a combined 15-5 record over the last two seasons, Ida has been the class of the Lenawee County Athletic Association of late with two straight league titles (last season shared) and only one loss in its last 15 league games before this defeat. The win was Columbia Central’s first ever against the Bluestreaks (3-1); the Golden Eagles (3-1) will now root for Ida to beat Hudson in Week 7, possibly their best chance at securing a shared league title after losing to the Tigers in Week 3. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.
Also noted:
Addison 32, Napoleon 30 – The Cascades Conference has taken all kinds of turns early; Napoleon (2-2) looked like the new favorite for a bit, but Addison (4-0) has stepped in tying its win total from 2016 and its most since 2010.
Parma Western 28, Coldwater 21 – The Panthers (3-1) impressively bounced back from a loss to Marshall in Week 3 to hand annual league contender Coldwater (3-1) its first defeat, potentially jumbling up a competitive Interstate Eight Athletic Conference race.
Morenci 26, Clinton 20 – The Bulldogs (2-2) ran their streak against Clinton (2-2) to two straight to pull to .500 after two losses by a combined three points to start the fall.
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 28, Detroit Loyola 15 – The Fighting Irish (4-0) have one more win than all of last season with their best start since 2010, and with this one may have eliminated the reigning Division 7 runner-up Bulldogs (0-4) from playoff consideration.
Southwest Corridor
Stevensville Lakeshore 14, St. Joseph 6
The “War by the Shore” went Lakeshore’s way for the fourth straight season as the Lancers put two touchdowns on the board during the first quarter and then clamped down on St. Joseph’s offense. Combined with a Week 3 win over Portage Central, Lakeshore (4-0) looks to have a good handle on the Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference West race – it’s looking to secure its first league title since 2014, with Portage Northern (1-3) and Niles (2-2) left to play. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Also noted:
Benton Harbor 29, Berrien Springs 7 – Don’t give up on Benton Harbor (1-3); after opening with three losses, the Tigers began their must-win stretch by handing Berrien Springs (3-1) its first defeat.
Edwardsburg 28, Dowagiac 20 – The Chieftains (2-2) gave Edwardsburg (4-0) easily its toughest game so far this season as the Eddies added a 32nd straight Wolverine Conference win (since Dowagiac handed them their last league loss in 2012.)
Schoolcraft 24, Saugatuck 21 – Life after graduated star Blake Dunn has seen Saugatuck (2-2) lose its first and second regular-season games since 2014 but now look pretty good as a favorite heading into the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore schedule; Schoolcraft (3-1) is looking at a tougher path to three-peat in the Valley.
Portage Central 49, Traverse City Central 34 – After both lost to their league rivals in Week 3, Portage Central (3-1) enjoyed the most bounce-back although the Trojans (2-2) should benefit from playing such a strong nonleague foe.
Upper Peninsula
Gladstone 20, Ishpeming Westwood 12
The Braves are piling up memorable wins, and moving to 4-0 gave them their most victories in a season since also winning four in 2010. The switch from the Great Northern Conference to the Mid-Peninsula Conference certainly has made a difference for the small Class B school, but Gladstone also has dominated against a tough opening group – Westwood (3-1) also has been building what could be its best season this decade. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Escanaba 45, Marquette 28 – The Eskymos (3-1) made it two straight over rival Marquette (1-3) and five wins in the last seven meetings of the biggest schools in the Upper Peninsula.
L'Anse 20, Hancock 18 – The Purple Hornets (3-1) bounced back from a Week 3 loss to Westwood to surpass last season’s win total and hand the Bulldogs (3-1) their first defeat.
Newberry 24, Munising 22 – The Mid-Eastern Conference is down to five teams, but five that could make the playoffs; Newberry (3-1) is the early leader, but Munising (2-2) could find its way into a shared league title.
Norway 21, Gwinn 6 – The Knights (4-0) also play in the Mid-Eastern Conference and have loaded up on impressive nonleague wins heading into their four conference games starting this week; Gwinn (2-2) has its work cut out as it looks to make the playoffs for a second straight season.
West Michigan
Whitehall 28, Muskegon Oakridge 14
Oakridge (3-1) has had quite a hold on the West Michigan Conference with three perfect runs through the league over the last five seasons and 37 wins over its last 39 league games. Whitehall (3-1) has made the playoffs three straight seasons but been just outside the league title mix thanks in large part to 17 straight losses to the Eagles. The Vikings can’t celebrate yet – but a win over similarly-powerful Montague this week would solidify their league title campaign. Click for more from the Local Sports Journal.
Also noted:
Comstock Park 49, Allendale 40 – The Panthers, 2-7 a year ago but 4-0 now, need only 43 more points to equal last season’s output and look like a contender in an Ottawa-Kent Conference Blue that has a number of annual playoff teams, with Allendale (1-3) now facing a must-win road to make it two straight appearances.
Coopersville 28, Sparta 21 – The Broncos (3-1) might hope to enter the O-K Blue mix already with two more wins than all of last year after handing Sparta (3-1) its first.
Muskegon 63, Byron Center 14 – The Big Reds (4-0) made it three wins over two seasons against Byron Center (3-1), a strong program in its own right with a combined 13-3 record since the start of 2016.
Grand Rapids Christian 33, Grand Rapids South Christian 12 – The Eagles (4-0) made it eight straight over what used to be an opening night nonleague rival before South Christian (3-1) joined the O-K Gold last season.
8-Player
Rapid River 26, Ontonagon 22
The way things are shaking out, this should eventually help decide the Western Eight Conference title. Rapid River (4-0) has a win over Crystal Falls Forest Park, and Ontonagon (3-1) has downed Powers North Central; Stephenson also is 4-0 and will see Rapid River in Week 7. By then the league should be more sorted out, and it seems likely the Rockets will be in the mix to lead it. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.
Also noted:
Bay City All Saints 69, New Haven Merritt 26 – The move to 8-player this fall is suiting All Saints (3-1) as it equaled last season’s win total by downing a 2016 playoff team in Merritt (2-2).
Deckerville 20, Kingston 14 – The Eagles (4-0) haven’t had many close games over the last two seasons, but leave it to the rival Cardinals (2-2) to provide easily the toughest challenge this fall.
Onekama 36, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 8 – The Portagers (4-0) also have adjusted seamlessly to a new format, with this win over the 2016 semifinalist Defenders (2-2) the latest of a dominating start.
Bellevue 28, Portland St. Patrick 6 – The Broncos (4-0) are yet another first-year 8-player team finding the going smooth as they handed St. Patrick (3-1) its first regular-season loss since 2015.
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PHOTO: Lansing Sexton and Grand Ledge linemen lock up during Friday's Comets victory. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)