Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 1 in Review
August 28, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Does anyone remember a more eventful opening weekend than the one Michigan fans enjoyed these last few days?
The 2017 kickoff had comebacks, like Marshall’s from 28 down to win. It had record-book performances, like Austin Brown’s eight first-half touchdown passes for Madison Heights Madison and Jake Moody’s 57-yard field goal for Northville (see below).
57 yard field goal! @jmoods13 new school record! #Fab50 pic.twitter.com/RlcTL0YZmy
— Lisa Moody (@lmoody68) August 25, 2017
There were winning streaks broken, a rematch of a 2016 MHSAA Final, and two reigning champions facing off as well. Scoring? Two games saw a combined 110 points, one of them finishing in triple overtime. How about a massive upset by a team that didn’t win a game last year? Yep, yes, and got it.
Check out Jake Moody’s school-record kick, and then read on for the most significant games from every region of the state and 8-player as we get our “Drive for Detroit” rolling again and with our first Week 2 preview only three days away.
Bay & Thumb
Davison 56, Southfield Arts & Technology 54 (3 OT)
Davison eventually emerged from what tied for the 10th most high-scoring overtime game in MHSAA history. The Cardinals trailed by 14 heading into the fourth quarter but followed star running back Tariq Reid to the comeback win and most exciting finish of the Xenith Prep Football Classic at Wayne State University (which can be watched on replay on MHSAA.tv). Click for more from MLive-Detroit.
Also noted:
Grand Blanc 51, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 46 – Grand Blanc also pulled off a memorable comeback, scoring twice over the final 1:07 for a Vehicle City Classic win at Atwood Stadium also available for replay on MHSAA.tv.
Flint Southwestern 26, Flint Beecher 12 – Southwestern, with an opening win, equaled its total number of victories for both 2016 and 2015.
Marine City 42, Algonac 6 – After missing the playoffs last year for the first time since 1997, Marine City won big against an Algonac team that was a combined 21-5 over the last two seasons.
Richmond 19, Marysville 10 – The Blue Devils avenged last year’s only regular-season loss against a Marysville team that lost only in the District Finals last fall.
Greater Detroit
Detroit Central 32, Detroit Loyola 8
Central is riding a nice run with three straight playoff appearances, and its seven wins last year were the most since going 9-3 in 2010. But still, this was big: Loyola has played in Division 7 championship games four of the last five seasons including 2016, and hasn’t been held to single-digit scoring in a game since a 2015 Semifinal loss. The Trail Blazers rebounded from a 1-4 start last year to win a Division 6 District title, and it looks like the momentum has carried over to this fall. Click for more from the Detroit News.
Also noted:
Detroit East English 38, River Rouge 29 – East English is another playoff regular, with four berths in five seasons, but the Bulldogs missed last fall and River Rouge was 33-6 over the last three years and has major expectations for this one. Watch it on MHSAA.tv.
Macomb Dakota 31, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 24 – The Cougars made it two seven-point opening-night wins in a row over the Eaglets, who still went on to win Division 3 championships the last two seasons.
Trenton 20, Allen Park 14 – This could end up being the Downriver League decider already, as Allen Park was perfect in the league last season (and 11-1 overall); this also was Trenton’s first win over the Jaguars since 1998 (a string of 10 straight losses) and first since the two became league mates in 2009.
Dearborn Divine Child 42, Benton Harbor 12 – Divine Child picked right back up after last year’s Division 3 Semifinal run, handing Benton Harbor its first regular-season loss since Week 8 in 2015.
Mid-Michigan
Grand Ledge 41, Hudsonville 14
This was quite a turnaround for a senior-loaded Comets team that fell to Hudsonville 21-14 in the 2016 opener. The Eagles scored first and the teams were tied 7-7 at halftime before the Comets broke free. Grand Ledge quarterback Nolan Bird threw for 229 yards and three touchdowns, including two to Cal Johnston. Click for more from WLNS (at 4:17).
Also noted:
New Lothrop 28, Lake Fenton 22 (OT) – After watching a 61-game regular-season winning streak end in Week 9 last October, New Lothrop started a new one against a Blue Devils team coming off a league title as well.
Haslett 43, Fowlerville 20 – The Vikings scored all of 154 points last season and finished 4-5, but posted their most points in nearly two years against a Gladiators team coming off a playoff berth.
Okemos 46, Mason 0 – This definitely bears watching; Okemos had a combined three wins over the last two seasons and scored only 158 points total last season while Mason has made the playoffs eight of the last nine years.
Ithaca 38, Clare 14 – For more than a half, the Yellowjackets’ now 65-game regular-season winning streak was under threat by annual playoff qualifier Clare.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Indian River Inland Lakes 27, St. Ignace 20
This was one of the biggest shockers statewide and especially for those following our smaller schools. Inland Lakes has had some recent success, with playoff berths in 2013 and 2014 – but went 0-9 last fall. St. Ignace, meanwhile, is coming off a second straight trip to the Division 8 Semifinals. The Saints started last season by shutting Inland Lakes out 44-0. Click for more from 9&10 News.
Also noted:
Frankfort 70, Manton 40 – These two tied for the highest-scoring 11-player game in the state in Week 1, Frankfort coming out on top after also winning the matchup 44-34 last year.
Traverse City St. Francis 21, Marquette 7 – St. Francis reportedly became the 12th program in state history with at least 500 victories with this one.
Boyne City 51, Negaunee 13 – The Ramblers went on a 25-0 second-half run to win big over one of the annual best from the Upper Peninsula (Negaunee was 10-1 last season).
Traverse City West 42, Midland 20 – The Titans made it three wins in five seasons and two in a row over one of the Saginaw Valley League’s strongest programs.
Southeast & Border
Jackson Lumen Christi 27, Grand Rapids West Catholic 24
Life after graduating single-season rushing record holder Bo Bell actually started out even better than a year ago for the Titans, who fell to West Catholic 30-13 last season on the way to winning the Division 6 championship. West Catholic, which went on to win Division 5 last fall, drove to the Titans’ 3-yard line but couldn’t get a go-ahead score before time expired. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 28, Pewamo-Westphalia 21 – St. Mary appears to be a contender again after a 4-5 season, starting this one by handing the reigning Division 7 champ its first loss since the 2015 title game.
Michigan Center 35, Climax-Scotts 6 – The Cardinals handed Climax-Scotts its first regular-season loss since Week 8 of 2014 after falling to the Panthers 48-14 a year ago.
Hanover-Horton 31, Concord 28 – Staying in the Cascades Conference, Hanover-Horton started its rebound from 2-7 a year ago by downing the reigning Big 8 Conference co-champion Yellow Jackets.
Pittsford 13, Morenci 12 – Pittsford’s last two seasons ended in the playoffs, but began with 44-6 and 34-7 losses to Morenci.
Southwest Corridor
Marshall 35, Jackson 34 (OT)
The most impressive comeback of many this weekend arguably took place at Marshall, where the Redhawks found themselves down 28-0 in the second quarter and came all the way back to begin a turnaround from last season’s 4-5 finish. Jackson, 5-4 last fall, must bounce back quickly with tough Zeeland East up next. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Also noted:
Coloma 61, Gobles 8 – Coloma is playing this season for its first winning record since 2009 and first playoff berth since 2008, and beating a Gobles team that was 8-3 last year is an incredible start.
Vicksburg 38, Dowagiac 27 – Vicksburg came back from 10 points down in the third quarter in a matchup of 2016 playoff teams to run its winning streak over Dowagiac to three straight.
Kalamazoo Hackett 34, Saugatuck 21 – The Fighting Irish, a combined 7-11 over the last two seasons, handed Saugatuck its first regular-season loss since 2014 and after falling by 44 in this matchup a year ago.
Homer 36, Constantine 34 – These teams’ first meeting since 1956 (according to Michigan-Football.com) was decided by a Homer touchdown pass with four seconds to play.
Upper Peninsula
Ishpeming 34, Iron Mountain 7
Iron Mountain may have scored first in the latest of this annual series, but Ishpeming certainly left a strong impression beginning its bounce-back from last season’s uncharacteristic 3-5 run. Last year’s opener saw the Mountaineers end the Hematites’ 27-game regular-season winning streak, so Ishpeming no doubt was inspired even more than usual against its traditional Week 1 rival. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.
Also noted:
Bark River-Harris 14, Iron River West Iron County 12 – The Broncos started making last year’s 3-6 finish a memory with one of its best defensive performances in three seasons and against a 2016 playoff team.
Gladstone 42, Gwinn 0 – Gwinn also was a playoff team last year and Gladstone also was 3-6, but the Braves flipped this one big-time after losing 36-16 in their 2016 meeting.
Hancock 21, Lake Linden-Hubbell 14 – In winning a season opener for the first time since 2010, Hancock also ended Lake Linden-Hubbell’s 18-game regular-season winning streak that began opening night 2016.
Menominee 26, Marinette (Wis.) 6 – The 111th meeting of this record interstate rivalry saw Menominee move its all-time advantage to 54-50-7.
West Michigan
Grand Rapids Catholic Central 20, Detroit Country Day 7
The rematch of last season’s Division 4 championship game was only a tad more high-scoring than last year’s defensive struggle, as GRCC put up 20 points this time to follow up that 10-7 victory when they last met at Ford Field. The Cougars scored the first 20 points of the game, in fact, leading off with a pair of touchdowns in the first quarter as quarterback Jack Bowen threw for one and ran in another. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Montague 48, Reed City 14 – The Wildcats not only took a first step toward a third straight playoff season, but handed Reed City its first regular-season loss since Week 9 of 2014.
Grand Rapids Christian 38, DeWitt 30 – The Eagles held off a late DeWitt comeback attempt in a matchup of what could be two of the top Division 3 teams in the state again.
Rockford 14, Saline 0 – The Rams made up for missing last year’s opener with a team-wide sickness by handing usually high-scoring Saline its first shutout since 2006.
Hudsonville Unity Christian 52, Allendale 44 – These two returning playoff teams were even a few points better after combining for 72 a year ago; Unity Christian downed the Falcons for the fourth straight time.
8-Player
Battle Creek St. Philip 14, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 8 (OT)
After just missing the playoffs last season at 5-4, St. Philip took a major step toward guaranteeing a return by edging a Tri-unity team that went 11-1 and made the Semifinals in 2016. Both teams shined defensively in an uncharacteristically low-scoring 8-player game, even a matchup of elite teams. Click for more from WZZM13.
Also noted:
Brimley 26, Posen 18 – Brimley couldn’t field a team last season, but back on the field the Bays got their first win since 2014.
Rapid River 38, Crystal Falls Forest Park 36 – Forest Park’s only two losses in last year’s 8-player debut were to eventual champion Powers North Central, and Rapid River avenged a 64-22 defeat in this one.
North Adams-Jerome 48, Burr Oak 46 – The Rams equaled last season’s win total in their 8-player debut after making the switch this past offseason.
Bellevue 40, Webberville 6 – The Broncos also switched from 11-player after last season and two straight 3-5 finishes, and they got off to a great start downing a 2016 playoff team.
PHOTO: Walled Lake Western defenders wrap up a West Bloomfield ball carrier during Western's 19-14 win Thursday at Wayne State University. (Photo by John Johnson).