Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '14

October 26, 2014

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

 
The pictures we drew Sunday morning at the MHSAA office won’t be found hanging on anyone’s walls.
 
But we worked toward something suitable for framing, designing this season’s football playoff brackets while considering the months and years of work put in by our schools and their teams, parents and fans to earn an opportunity to continue their seasons this weekend.
 
The work completed today to draw up the 2014 MHSAA Football Playoffs began long before opening night in August. Our football tournament is like none other sponsored by the MHSAA – it’s the only team tournament in which every team doesn’t qualify – and we began talking about this tournament not long after last season’s champions were decided.
 
Then came April and May and tracking down schedules for 613 MHSAA varsity football teams, plus 45 out-of-state opponents our Michigan schools were set to play including 14 from Ontario and one from Minnesota.
 
The fun part was monitoring the scores and standings for all of these teams over the nine weeks of the regular season, each Friday night a stream of chatter from kickoff into our weekly highlights show on Fox Sports Detroit.
 
And then came Sunday – and navigating the most difficult maps to draw in my four seasons assisting in the process.
 
We often have versions “a” and “b” and on occasion “c” when considering which best accomplishes our goal – to create the correct geographical picture for each of eight 11-player divisions and our 8-player bracket.
 
Sunday morning, we saw a version “e” for the first time I can remember and some shapes that didn’t make much sense without explanation.

Some of those explanations are below – the stories behind how we made some of the toughest decisions. I start with a quick history lesson you can skip if you’re familiar with this annual report or our playoff selection process in general, then move into some of the specifics many will be discussing this week as they begin focusing on their Pre-District opponents. (Click for the full schedule.)

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 229 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 27 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field is filled.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last three Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. That said, how maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations and answers: 2014  

Class A ripple: A total of 80 Class A teams qualified for the playoffs in 2013 after three seasons of 79 each. But 89 Class A teams are part of the 2014 field, and that increase in turn shifted a number of smaller schools into different divisions – including some annual favorites. Muskegon, Division 2 runner-up the last two seasons, is in Division 3. Marine City, last season’s Division 4 champion, will play in Division 5. Five-time Division 5 champ Jackson Lumen Christi moved into Division 6, where it could be the toughest obstacle as Ithaca attempts to win that division for the fifth straight season.
 
Stranger on paper: Yes, Division 1’s District 2 stretches from Grandville to Hartland. This isn’t a desirable outcome, but was necessary with this field. Six districts are filled with teams all east of U.S. 23, and a seventh is completely north and west of Grand Rapids. That left the four teams in the middle – Grandville, East Kentwood, Grand Ledge and Hartland.
 
Something similar came down in the 8-player bracket – why would we break up four teams in the Thumb to include three with Big Rapids Crossroads Academy all the way west of U.S. 127? It had to do with creating the appropriate semifinal matchup for whichever team emerges from the Rapid River/Cedarville/Engadine/Bellaire regional; keeping the Thumb teams together might’ve meant Lawrence or Waldron from near the Indiana border going all the way to Rapid River instead of Thumb teams that are still far away but closer to the convenient highways.
 
Line falls through Warren: Division 2 presented a few challenges. There are five districts made up of schools predominantly in the Greater Detroit and Port Huron areas, so one was going to end up potentially matching up farther from home. At first we drew a region across the bottom of the Lower Peninsula that connected teams from the Kalamazoo/Battle Creek area with a district from Ypsilanti and south of Detroit. But rearranging districts to draw a line between Warren DeLaSalle and Warren Counsino, although they’re nearly neighbors, helped make the rest of the map much cleaner – and eliminated that I-94 Regional we didn’t prefer.
 
Deconstructing D3: This was another toughie given the locations of teams involved. Three districts are all east of U.S. 23 and south of Pontiac, and four more are all west and/or north of Greater Lansing. Usually the Lansing area has a large share of Division 3 qualifiers – but not this season. So that left five schools somewhat without a sure home – St. Johns, DeWitt, Mason, Tecumseh and Linden. DeWitt is much closer to Mason and even Tecumseh, with the differences between St. Johns and DeWitt to Linden and St. Johns and DeWitt to Grand Rapids small enough to cancel out in the big picture.
 
Stretching Division 6: In the end, this map looks good – but there was a lot of conversation. The tough part was finding the fairest possible situation for whichever district champ might end up playing Negaunee – Bad Axe in the Thumb, Madison Heights Madison or Warren Michigan Collegiate as possibilities coming out of northern Detroit, or even Fennville near Lake Michigan south of Holland. Proximity to I-75 helped make this decision.

Crisscrossing Division 8: Figuring out this bracket started out easy enough with eight teams in the Upper Peninsula or just south of Mackinac Bridge and with the southwest and southeast Lower Peninsula set. But a group of 10 across the top of the Lower Peninsula – including neighbors Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart, Beal City and Coleman – made this interesting. A rule of thumb is we don’t want a team passing through a different district or regional to reach its opponent – and with three teams so closely bunched, that was a challenge in drawing this one out.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

In the end, we present a group of dots on a map – as stated above, we don’t identify the schools until after the groupings are drawn. Part of the fun is then finding out what first-round matchups we’ve created: Muskegon Mona Shores vs. Caledonia and Detroit Martin Luther King vs. Southfield should be incredible, as well as the Ishpeming/Westwood and Iron Mountain/West Iron County rivalry games in the Upper Peninsula.
 
And no doubt, those who play for and support Burton Atherton, Ypsilanti Community, first-year Lapeer High School, Big Rapids Crossroads and New Haven Merritt Academy are ready to enjoy the playoff ride for the first time.

We’re excited to watch them all – and see which end up in Detroit with us to finish the fall over Thanksgiving weekend. We hope to see you there as well.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map for 11-player football has each region shaded; champion of the white plays green in a semifinal with yellow facing blue in the other. 

Drive for Detroit: Week 9 Preview

October 20, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

The sun is setting on another Michigan high school football regular season. 

But the lights haven't gone off yet for 180 teams holding out hope of playing their way into this season's playoff field.

Heading into Thursday night, 160 teams in 11-player could either qualify automatically with a win this weekend or set themselves up for a possible at-large bid. And 20 8-player teams, give or take a few, still look to be alive for one of 16 spots in that field.

A number of games including Detroit Public School League and Big 8/Cascades Conference crossovers were played Thursday. See the MHSAA Score Center for those scores and the schedule for tonight and Saturday. Be sure to tune in to Fox Sports Detroit at 7 p.m. Sunday for the announcement of this season's playoff brackets in all nine divisions. Click for more details on the Selection Sunday Show.

And see below for the final regular-season Drive for Detroit preview, powered by MI Student Aid, with some emphasis placed on games that could help decide the playoff field. All games are tonight unless noted.

Bay & Thumb

Frankenmuth (8-0) at Freeland (8-0)

This is a repeat of last year’s Week 9 scenario, when these Tri-Valley Conference champions – Frankenmuth from the East and Freeland from the Central – met in the final regular season game. Freeland won big, 42-7, and then won 35-12 when they met again two weeks later for a Division 5 District title. The numbers indicate a closer game between the two this time; Freeland’s defense remains stellar giving up only 8.6 points per game, but Frankenmuth’s is giving up only 5.4 and could be the key to reversing last season’s results.  

Others that caught my eye: Lapeer (6-2) at Flint Carman-Ainsworth (6-2), Flint Powers Catholic (5-3) at Davison (8-0), Fenton (6-2) at Linden (6-2), Midland Dow (7-1) at Midland (4-4).

Greater Detroit

Detroit Cass Tech (8-0) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (7-1) at Ford Field

As anticipated, these two will meet for the PSL Division 1 championship after also facing each other in division play three weeks ago. Cass Tech won that game 31-18, being held to its fewest points of the season but also locking down a King offense that has scored fewer than 39 only one other time. The Crusaders already got a taste of a rematch last week, when they played Detroit East English for the second straight and escaped with a two-point win after downing the Bulldogs by 38 the week before. King will hope for a similar tightening up of the score in this second meeting with the Technicians. 

Others that caught my eye: Lake Orion (5-3) at Bloomfield Hills (8-0), Detroit Denby (7-1) vs. Detroit Mumford (7-1) at Ford Field, Oak Park (6-2) at Southfield Arts & Technology (5-3), Detroit Catholic Central (8-0) vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (5-3) on Saturday at Ford Field

Mid-Michigan

Walled Lake Western (7-1) at Brighton (7-1)

This Lakes championship game features the winners of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West (Brighton) and North (Western) in their first meeting since 1997. The Warriors are undefeated aside from having to forfeit an opening-night victory and have beaten three teams already qualified for the playoffs and two more that could get in at-large. Brighton has four wins against teams that are in or close, but did lose Week 2 to Northville – which lost to Western in Week 3.

Others that caught my eye: Grandville Calvin Christian (5-3) at Belding (5-3), Laingsburg (7-1) at Durand (5-3), Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (4-4) at Lansing Catholic (7-1), Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (6-2) at New Lothrop (8-0).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Boyne City (6-2) at Traverse City St. Francis (8-0)

Boyne City’s rough start to this season is barely a memory two months later as it has a chance to finish this comeback with a Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends-clinching victory against reigning champion St. Francis. The Ramblers will have a little vengeance in mind after St. Francis' 32-13 win in their 2015 meeting decided the league title. But the Gladiators are riding high; St. Francis downed playoff-bound Kalkaska 49-0 last week, has given up 15 points over its last four games and no more than 14 in any game this fall.

Others that caught my eye: Traverse City Central (7-1) at Cadillac (6-2), Kalkaska (6-2) at Grayling (5-3), Clare (7-1) at Houghton Lake (5-3), Frankfort (8-0) at Onekama (6-2).

Southeast & Border

Birmingham Groves (8-0) at Saline (8-0)

Trying to pick an angle on this one is tough; it’s just a great matchup. Both teams went 9-0 last season, so the winner going undefeated won’t be something new. Both also rank among the highest in any division for playoff-point average, so the winner of this one could be looking at a nice playoff road – but the loser will be in good shape as well. Both are keyed by strong defenses: Saline has given up 12.7 points per game but only 31 points over their last four. Groves, meanwhile, has given up only 34 points over the last seven games and no more than eight since Week 2.

Others that caught my eye: Morenci (5-3) at Adrian Madison (4-4), Dearborn (7-1) at Ann Arbor Skyline (4-4), Sand Creek (7-1) at Petersburg-Summerfield (5-3), Grass Lake (7-1) at Springport (7-1).

Southwest Corridor

Portage Central (7-1) at St. Joseph (6-2)

Portage Central no doubt has been looking forward to this one; the Mustangs were cruising along to an outright Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West title and perfect regular season last year when St. Joseph busted both with a 22-6 Week 9 win. The teams ended up sharing the league title, and the Bears are in the same position of trying to force another share after losing to Stevensville Lakeshore in Week 4. Portage Central’s only loss this fall was on the road to one-loss Traverse City Central.

Others that caught my eye: Traverse City West (6-2) at Coldwater (6-2), Lawton (7-1) at Decatur (4-4), Portland (8-0) at Marshall (4-4), DeWitt (7-1) at Portage Northern (5-3).

Upper Peninsula

Newberry (7-1) at St. Ignace (7-1)

The Indians could add a major highlight to their best season since 2004 by avenging last year’s 50-20 playoff loss to the Saints. St. Ignace went on to the Division 8 Semifinals and this fall locked up an eighth-straight league title in its first season in the NMFL Legends division. Newberry can gain a share of the Mid-Eastern Conference title, but only if first-place and undefeated Lake Linden-Hubbell falls this weekend to Munising.

Others that caught my eye: Iron Mountain (6-2) at Norway (7-1), Kingsford (6-2) at Escanaba (6-2), Bark River-Harris (3-5) at Felch North Dickinson (5-3), Hancock (4-4) at Houghton (3-5).

West Michigan

Rockford (6-2) at Hudsonville (7-1)

For most of this season, it didn’t look like this game would mean as much as it does once again. Rockford has rattled off six straight wins after a rough start and holds a one-win advantage on both Grandville and Hudsonville in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red. Hudsonville fell to Grandville in Week 4 but can create a three-way tie for the title if it can avenge last year’s pair of losses to the Rams – 28-27 in Week 9 and then 21-13 in their District Final.

Others that caught my eye: Grand Rapids West Catholic (7-1) at Allendale (6-2), Hudsonville Unity Christian (7-1) at Byron Center (7-1), Zeeland East (6-2) at Zeeland West (6-2), East Grand Rapids (6-2) at Grand Rapids South Christian (5-3).

8-Player

Powers North Central (8-0) at Stephenson (7-1) 

The Jets have turned away all challengers in their quest to repeat as MHSAA champions. North Central has yet to lose a game in two seasons of 8-player football, and it’s scored at least 56 points in every game this fall and 76 or more four of the last five weeks. Enter Stephenson, which saw North Central twice last season and this fall has lost only to Crystal Falls Forest Park – the team to give North Central its toughest challenge so far.

Others that caught my eye: Camden-Frontier (5-1) at Waldron (4-4), New Haven Merritt (8-0) at Flint International Academy (6-2).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid. 

PHOTOS: Whitehall and Ravenna took the field under a picturesque sunset Oct. 7. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)