Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 11-Player Semifinals Preview

January 15, 2021

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Five months have passed since the first football practices of this season.

But 24 hours from now, 16 11-player teams will have earned tickets to the destination they’ve been dreaming about since long before those first snaps of the fall.

The last outdoor MHSAA football games of January 2021 will send 15 more teams to Ford Field for the Jan. 22-23 Finals, with Semifinals to be played all over the Lower Peninsula (and one finalist already decided as Centreville will advance after a forfeit).

Spectators remain limited this weekend, but every game will be streamed live by FOX Sports Detroit or MHSAA.com – Click for the list of broadcasts.

Visit the MHSAA Football Playoff Home for Saturday’s entire schedule and scores as they come in, and see below for a glance at the matchups that will determine this season’s championship weekend field. 

Division 1

Davison (10-0) at Rockford (8-0)

Reigning Division 1 champion Davison might be missing quarterback Brendan Sullivan, now at Northwestern, but Dion Brown Jr. stepped in mightily last week after leading the team in receiving prior to the move. Carter Cryderman (848 yards/11 TDs) paces a rushing attack averaging 215 yards per game. The Rams have succeeded with a similar style, averaging 222 yards on the ground with lead back Ethan Nash and quarterback Zak Ahern combining for 1,217 yards and 14 touchdowns rushing. Ahern also has 20 touchdowns passes.

West Bloomfield (9-1) at Belleville (10-0)

Two of the most exciting offensive stars in the state will face off among a collection of future college players taking the field in this Semifinal. West Bloomfield running back Donovan Edwards ran for four touchdowns in last week’s return-to-play Regional Final win over Romeo, while Belleville quarterback Christian Dhue-Reid threw three touchdowns passes as the Tigers handed Detroit Cass Tech its lone loss of this season.

Division 2

Traverse City Central (9-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (10-0)

Shores quarterback Brady Rose started his star run stepping in for an injured all-stater at last year’s Final and leading the Sailors to the Division 2 title. Now he has his team one win from returning to Ford Field having run for 1,057 yards and 17 touchdowns and thrown for 949 yards and 10 scores this season. The Trojans are playing for their first Finals berth since 1988, before the old Traverse City High split into Central and West. Josh Burnham is another standout quarterback, with 903 yards and 18 TDs rushing and 1,215 yards and 16 scores through the air.

Oak Park (5-5) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (6-4)  

Oak Park is one of the best stories so far of this playoffs, as it entered the first all-in postseason in MHSAA football history with a single victory. Running back Davion Primm is another of the top talents in the entire state and the focus of an offense that scored 25 points total over five regular-season games followed by a combined 119 over four playoff wins. The Pilots will attempt to end that dream run, in part with a defense that has given up only 23 points during the postseason. Brady Drogosh (949 yards/9 TDs passing) directs a balanced attack.

Division 3

Muskegon (9-1) vs. DeWitt (10-0) at Lansing Catholic

These two have met in the playoffs two of the last three seasons, and Muskegon won the 2019 Semifinal matchup 28-21. Senior Amari Crowley is the Big Reds’ latest standout quarterback; he’s thrown for 1,008 yards and 12 touchdowns and run for 884 yards and 13 scores. DeWitt also has a playmaking QB, with Tyler Holtz throwing for 2,109 yards and 31 scores – and equally important will be a defense that gives up only 157 total yards per game. The Panthers also must stop running back Jacarri Kitchen, who averages 11.3 yards per carry and has 1,098 total over 10 games.

River Rouge (8-1) at Chelsea (10-0)

Reigning Division 3 champion River Rouge is a win away from what would be a third championship game appearance in six seasons, and with quarterback Mareyohn Hrabowski again one of the toughest to stop in any division. Chelsea is playing in a Semifinal for the third-straight season and also hoping to make the Finals for the third time in six seasons. The Bulldogs also have enjoyed one of the state’s top game changers, receiver Joe Taylor, who has caught 14 touchdowns passes, run for two scores and returned a kickoff for one more.   

Division 4

Cadillac (7-2) at Edwardsburg (9-0)

The Eddies are running for their third championship game appearance in four seasons, and as always running for a ton with 3,098 yards in only eight games on the field (the ninth was a forfeit). They’re averaging 55 points per game with their top two rushers, Jackson Hoover and Brett Allen, both averaging at least 14 yards per carry. Cadillac is making its first appearance in the Semifinals and following the same strategy. The Vikings have run for 2,507 yards, with top rusher Aden Gurden gaining 878 on 8.4 per carry.

Detroit Country Day (7-2) vs. Williamston (9-1) at Okemos

Reigning Division 4 runner-up Country Day is playing to reach its third championship game in five seasons. The Yellowjackets were able to get only four games in during the regular season but have played the same number during the playoffs and downed unbeaten North Branch last week. Jacob Yarberry is a playmaker to watch on both sides of the field. The Hornets have been on the verge as well with this their second Semifinal in three seasons. Williamston’s attack is tough on both fronts; quarterback Luke Mahaney guides an offense that has nearly equal yardage and touchdowns rushing and passing.

Division 5

Freeland (9-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (9-0)

The Cougars claimed the Division 4 title last season, their third in four years, and are riding a 21-game winning streak. They returned last week with their highest-scoring performance since 2018, a 58-7 win over Muskegon Oakridge. Freeland’s 14th-straight winning season has landed the Falcons in their first Semifinal since 1998. Four players have scored at least six touchdowns;  leading rusher Jacob Kundinger (519 yards) is one of three with a team-best eight touchdowns.

Lansing Catholic (8-2) at Frankenmuth (10-0)

The Eagles are attempting to reach the Finals for the first time, but standing in the way is reigning Division 5 champion Lansing Catholic. Junior Alex Watters stepped in at quarterback last week and finished with 153 yards rushing with a touchdown and 73 yards and a score passing. Frankenmuth will be playing in its third Semifinal in five seasons, this time paced by a running attack averaging 286 yards per game. Cole Lindow is the top ground gainer with 907 yards, plus 12 scores, with quarterback Davin Reif adding more than 800 yards rushing and throwing.

Division 6

Grayling (7-3) at Montague (10-0)

After winning Division 6 in 2018, the Wildcats missed a return trip to the Finals by a one-point Semifinal loss last fall. Quarterback Drew Collins is leading the return attempt, topping the team in rushing with 638 yards (with 16 touchdowns) while passing for 1,640 yards and 20 scores. After two straight 3-6 seasons, Grayling has reached its first Semifinal with a six-game winning streak. David Millikin is averaging 10.1 yards per carry and 151 per game, with 29 rushing touchdowns total.

Constantine (9-1) at Clinton (9-1)

Clinton will be playing in its first Semifinal since 2015 after winning its last two playoff games, over unbeaten opponents, by a combined four points. Constantine has reached nine wins and the Semifinals both for the first time since 2012. The Falcons are averaging an obliterating 524 yards and 7.5 touchdowns on the ground per game.

Division 7

Traverse City St. Francis (8-2) at Cass City (10-0)

Cass City earned home field for its Semifinal with a road win last week over undefeated Ithaca. This will be the second-straight appearance in this round for the Red Hawks, who average 339 rushing yards per game behind backs Alex Perry (897 yards/13 TDs) and Jordan Mester (847/11 TDs). St. Francis also dominates in the ground game, averaging 215 rush yards per game led by Owen Mueller (523 yards/5 TDs) among a large group of contributing backs.

Schoolcraft (9-1) at New Lothrop (9-0)

The Hornets will be playing in their third Semifinal in six seasons and are looking to win their second Division 7 title in three seasons. No opponent has scored more than 16 points against them, which works well with an offense scoring 50 points per game. Quarterback Cam Orr (1,721 yards/24 TDs passing, 569 yards/16 TDs rushing) is among standouts. Schoolcraft turned its third-straight Regional Finals run into its first Semifinal since 2001. Alex Thole has thrown for 2,288 yards and 32 touchdowns. The Eagles downed reigning Division 7 runner-up Jackson Lumen Christi 29-22 last week and handed Division 6 semifinalist Constantine its only loss, in the season opener.

Division 8

Ubly (8-2) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (10-0)

Johannesburg-Lewiston also earned a home Semifinal after a Regional Final road trip, edging Iron Mountain 7-6 last week at the Superior Dome. Sheldon Huff paces another dominating running attack, averaging 9.3 yards per carry for 1,295 total and 16 touchdowns on the ground. This will be the Cardinals’ first Semifinal since 1998, but Ubly’s second straight and third in four seasons. The Bearcats missed Ford Field in 2019 with a one-point loss to Beal City.

NOTE: Centreville (10-0) advanced to the Division 8 Final after Clarkston Everest Collegiate had to withdraw from the playoffs this week.

PHOTO: Williamston, here during a 45-7 win over Ionia in Week 7, is back in the Semifinals this weekend for the second time in three seasons. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)