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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: Playoff Week 4 in Review

January 10, 2021

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Every chance to compete is an opportunity to accomplish something never achieved before.

The return of MHSAA football Saturday loudly reminded us how much we’ve been missing those moments.

Among four 8-Player Semifinals winners, one earned the championship game trip for the first time and two more will get another chance at claiming a first title. Stories were unfolding as well all over the 11-Player Regional Finals as the sun seemed to shine extra brightly on teams playing the first January football games in Michigan high school history.

Below is a glance at all of those games, with highlights from those that especially jumped off the page. Keep up-to-date by visiting the MHSAA Football Playoff Home and watch many of this weekend’s games on demand on MHSAA.tv.

8-Player

Division 1

SEMIFINAL Adrian Lenawee Christian 47, Martin 12 The Cougars (10-0) will play for a championship for the first time after yet another big win – Lenawee Christian’s average margin of victory this season is 50 points. Martin (8-2), which was making its first Semifinal appearance since 1987, is a combined 18-3 over two seasons of 8-player. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

SEMIFINAL Suttons Bay 1, Indian River Inland Lakes 0 The reigning Division 1 runner-up Norseman advanced to the championship game due to an Inland Lakes forfeit.

Division 2

SEMIFINAL Powers North Central 50, Marion 2 The Jets (10-0) launched to a 36-0 first-quarter lead to get back to the championship round for the first time since 2016. North Central has given up only 24 points total over four playoff games. Marion finished its winningest season since 1992 at 8-2. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

SEMIFINAL Portland St. Patrick 34, Kinde North Huron 12 The Shamrocks (10-0) will play in the championship round for the third time in four seasons and second straight. This was the third time in those four seasons these two met in the playoffs. North Huron finished 8-1, its best since 2017. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

11-Player

Division 1

HEADLINER Davison 20, Detroit Catholic Central 7 Davison quarterback Brendan Sullivan (now at Northwestern) is one of the most high-profile seniors who has moved on to college football, and it’s fair to say most expected that to be an additional boost for Detroit Catholic Central (9-1). But the reigning Division 1 champion Cardinals (10-0) instead enjoyed an incredible breakout performance by new quarterback Dion Brown Jr. plus a defensive effort that held the Shamrocks 22 points below their season average. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Regional Roundup Belleville 43, Detroit Cass Tech 16 This was arguably the most high-profile Division 1 game heading into the weekend, and the Tigers (10-0) put up their most impressive victory of what’s now a fourth-straight double-digit win season, holding Cass Tech (9-1) to 25 points below its average. Rockford 40, Saline 17 The Rams (8-0) are headed to the Semifinals for the first time since 2012 after locking up a Saline offense that averaged 40 points per game during an 8-1 start. West Bloomfield 52, Romeo 14 The Lakers (9-1) clinched their first Regional title since 2017 with a third-straight scoring output of 50 points or more thanks in part to four Donovan Edwards touchdowns. Romeo (5-5) still has much to celebrate after entering the postseason 2-4.

Division 2

HEADLINER Muskegon Mona Shores 24, East Lansing 21 The reigning Division 2 champion Sailors (10-0) advanced by connecting on a 25-yard field goal as time expired. The Regional championship was Shores’ third straight. East Lansing (9-1) meanwhile came back to tie in the fourth quarter before falling short; the Trojans also had come up just three points short in its most recent previous Regional run in 2017.  Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Regional Roundup Oak Park 30, Livonia Churchill 23 The long break didn’t derail Oak Park’s dream postseason, as the Knights improved to 5-5 after entering the postseason 1-5 with only a forfeit win. Churchill (6-3) reached the Regional Finals for the second-straight season. Traverse City Central 50, North Farmington 22 The Trojans (9-1) are headed to the Semifinals for the first time since 1988, which came before the old Traverse City High split into Central and West. North Farmington (7-3) saw the end of its deepest tournament run since 1978. Warren De La Salle Collegiate 45, Warren Mott 3 The Pilots (6-4) entered the playoffs 2-4 and have outscored its four postseason opponents on average 44-6. Mott (8-2) can celebrate its winningest season since 2013, which came despite the abbreviated schedule.

Division 3

HEADLINER River Rouge 33, Detroit Martin Luther King 30 The reigning champion Panthers (13-1) won another classic matchup with King, which had won their 2018 playoff meeting by a point. Like Mona Shores in Division 2, River Rouge clinched its Regional title with a late field goal. King (6-4) had won five straight Regional titles. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Regional Roundup Muskegon 24, East Grand Rapids 0 The Big Reds (9-1) claimed a fifth-consecutive Regional title with their first shutout of the season, stopping the Pioneers (6-4) who had entered averaging 31 points per game. This was the third straight season Muskegon defeated EGR in the playoffs, and second straight in this round. Chelsea 38, Flint Kearsley 22 The Bulldogs (10-0) secured a third-straight Regional title and third-straight double-digit win season, while ending the deepest postseason run for the Hornets (6-4) since 1998. DeWitt 1, Stevensville Lakeshore 0 The Panthers advanced to the Semifinals as Lakeshore withdrew from the tournament.

Division 4

HEADLINER Cadillac 27, Ada Forest Hills Eastern 23 Less than 24 hours after Cadillac had to move its home game to Traverse City, the Vikings (7-2) came back to win its first Regional title in six tries. Forest Hills Eastern (6-4), playing for its first Regional title since 2015, led by 14 points at halftime. The Hawks did complete their best season since that 2015 run, with two more wins than a season ago. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Regional Roundup Edwardsburg 47, Grand Rapids South Christian 7 The Eddies (9-0) marched to their fourth Regional title in five seasons, continuing a streak of scoring at least 43 points in every game this season. South Christian (8-2) closed its winningest campaign since 2014. Williamston 38, Milan 21 The Hornets (9-1) won their second Regional title in three seasons with their second-highest scoring output of this one to get past Milan (8-2) as it played in a Regional Final for the second-straight season. Detroit Country Day 38, North Branch 0 The reigning Division 4 runner-up Yellowjackets (7-2) slowed a North Branch offense that was averaging 43 points per game during its first run to the Regional Finals. The Broncos finished 9-1, their winningest season since 2006.

Division 5

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 31, Marine City 7 The Eagles scored 24 unanswered points during the second half to clinch a third Regional title in five seasons and first since 2017. Frankenmuth (10-0) was able to get its running game going to break away, while the defense held Marine City (8-2) to 33 points below its average. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Regional Roundup Grand Rapids Catholic Central 58, Muskegon Oakridge 7 Last season’s Division 4 champion, the Cougars (9-0) are in Division 5 for the first time and won their fifth straight Regional title. The loss was the second for Oakridge (7-3) to a team still undefeated this season. Lansing Catholic 28, Grosse Ile 5 The reigning Division 5 champion Cougars (8-2) pulled within two wins of a repeat with their third single-digit defensive performance of the playoffs and with Grosse Ile (6-4) averaging 33 points per game entering the afternoon. Freeland 1, Reed City 0 The Falcons advanced with a forfeit win.

Division 6

HEADLINER Clinton 13, Warren Michigan Collegiate 12 Defense dominated this matchup, especially during a scoreless second half. In the end, Clinton (9-1) held on for its second-straight win by three or fewer points and first Regional title since 2015. Michigan Collegiate (9-1) completed its fifth straight season with two or fewer losses, keyed by a defense that gave up only 3.1 points per game. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Regional Roundup Grayling 56, Negaunee 26 After two straight three-win seasons, Grayling (7-3) is headed to the Semifinals for the first time after getting past the Miners (6-4). The Vikings found success against a Negaunee defense that had given up only 47 points total over its first three playoff games. Montague 41, Montrose 16 The Wildcats (10-0) reached 10 wins for the fourth-straight season with their third-straight Regional title, as the Rams (8-2) ended in this round for the second-straight season. Constantine 33, Michigan Center 14 The Falcons (9-1) ran their winning streak to nine and now have their winningest season since 2012 and first Regional title since that fall after downing Michigan Center (6-2), which also hadn’t lost since its season opener. The Cardinals can still celebrate bouncing back from their 4-5 finish in 2019.

Division 7

HEADLINER Cass City 50, Ithaca 24 Both entered undefeated, and Cass City (10-0) is moving on to the Semifinals for a second-straight season after getting more than a 100 yards rushing from a pair of backs and two touchdowns rushing and a third passing from quarterback Bryce Fernald. Despite the shortened schedule, Ithaca (9-1) finished with its winningest season in three, improving on eight victories in both 2018 and 2019. Click for more from the Bay City Times.

Regional Roundup Schoolcraft 29, Jackson Lumen Christi 22 In its third-straight trip to the Regional Finals, Schoolcraft (9-1) broke through for its first win in this round since 2001. In the process, the Eagles ended Lumen Christi’s season at 5-5, bringing to a close a streak of 31 consecutive with winning records. New Lothrop 41, Detroit Loyola 7 After missing the Semifinals by a one-point Regional loss last season, New Lothrop is headed back thanks to its sixth single-digit defensive effort of this run. Loyola (8-2) did finish its winningest season since 2016, two victories better than in 2019. Traverse City St. Francis 1, Oscoda 0 The Gladiators advanced after Oscoda withdrew from the tournament.

Division 8

HEADLINER Johannesburg-Lewiston 7, Iron Mountain 6 The Cardinals (10-0) journeyed to the Superior Dome and held on after scoring their lone points during the final minutes of the first half. Iron Mountain (8-2) had gone for two on its touchdown early in the second quarter, but was unable to convert a two-point try. The Regional title was Johannesburg-Lewiston’s first since 1998. Click for more from the Gaylord Herald Times.

Regional Roundup Ubly 36, Carson City-Crystal 6 The Bearcats missed making it to Ford Field a year ago by a one-point Semifinal defeat, and they’ve earned another chance with another impressive defensive effort – they’ve given up a combined 28 points over four playoff games. Carson City-Crystal (6-2) finished its deepest playoff run since 1999. Centreville 8, Sand Creek 0 The Bulldogs (9-0) put up their sixth shutout of the season, this one to earn their first Regional championship. Sand Creek (8-2) completed its deepest playoff run since 2007. Clarkston Everest Collegiate 35, Petersburg Summerfield 0 The Mountaineers (10-0) won their first Regional title, in the process reaching double-digit wins for the first time in the program’s eight-season history. Summerfield (4-6) entered the playoffs just 1-5 but reached the Regional Finals for the first time since 2011.

PHOTO: Muskegon, on offense, returned to the field Saturday with a Division 3 Regional Final win over East Grand Rapids. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)