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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: Playoff Week 1 in Review

November 2, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

This already-unusual 2020 football season introduced the first nearly all-in football playoffs this weekend with plenty of new in terms of format – but also a lot of the unpredictability we expect from this time of year.

For the first time, with fields doubled, 11-player teams were placed in eight-team Districts and 8-player teams in eight-team Regionals. And going by seeds, 35 games were upsets, including two by No. 8 seeds over No. 1s, four by seven seeds over No. 2s and 13 by six seeds over No. 3s.

There also were 66 rematches of regular-season games – with 13 different winners the second time around.

Below is a glance at results that intrigued the most from this first playoff week. Historical context is based in part on data at Michigan-football.com.

8-Player

Division 1

HEADLINER Rochester Adams 39, Rochester 7 Their Week 1 game didn’t happen, of course, and Rochester (6-1) went on to its first perfect regular season since 1993. But Adams (3-4) ran its winning streak over its rival to 23 with its best scoring output of the season. Click for more from the Oakland Press. 

District Digest Novi 41, Brighton 27 Their opening night meeting was canceled, with the Bulldogs (4-3) getting the forfeit win. Before that, Brighton had won seven of their last eight matchups with the Wildcats (3-4) – with Novi’s win during that string coming in the 2016 playoffs. Grand Blanc 28, Lake Orion 14 The Bobcats (6-1) claimed their first playoff win since 2012, guaranteeing their best record since 2017 and in three fewer games than both of the last two seasons. Dearborn 20, Monroe 15 The Pioneers (3-4) joined Novi among No. 6 seeds that upset No. 3s, giving up their fewest points since the season opener. Monroe did finish 4-3, a win better than 2019. Romeo 20, New Baltimore Anchor Bay 6 Romeo was another No. 6 seed to prevail, but Anchor Bay (4-3) still had plenty to celebrate this fall with a three-win improvement and league title.

Division 2

HEADLINER Oak Park 35, Grosse Pointe South 27 The Knights (1-6) couldn’t have picked a better moment to have their best of the season, winning their first game and scoring nearly half of their points for this fall in front of a FOX Sports Detroit audience. Oak Park was the eighth seed in the District and had put up only 45 points heading into the game. Grosse Pointe South (4-3) finished its season with two of its losses by eight points or fewer. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press and see highlights below from FSD.

District Digest Lowell 35, Byron Center 28 The Red Arrows (4-3) avenged a 14-point Week 7 loss to the Bulldogs (5-2), who went on to share the Ottawa-Kent Conference White title. Lowell also broke its three-game losing streak to close the regular season. Swartz Creek 28, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 6 The Dragons (5-2) added to a big turnaround season with their first playoff win. Dexter 56, Ypsilanti Lincoln 28 The Dreadnaughts (5-2) also earned their first playoff victory after near-misses the last two seasons. Ypsilanti Community 21, Dearborn Heights Crestwood 7 The Grizzlies (4-3) earned their first playoff victory as well and guaranteed at least their second-best season in eight as a program.

Division 3

HEADLINER Battle Creek Harper Creek 30, Parma Western 13 Their annual regular-season meeting was scheduled for Week 3, but Harper Creek (5-2) had to wait until the playoffs to break a recent two-game losing streak to the Panthers (4-3). The Beavers are now two wins better than both of the last two seasons. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer. 

District Digest Lansing Waverly 39, St. Johns 7 With their first playoff win, the Warriors (4-3) also guaranteed their best finish since at least 2012. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 38, Pinckney 14 It’s not rare for a Catholic League Central team to have a so-so record after a highly-competitive regular season and come out strong in the playoffs, and St. Mary’s (2-3) is the latest example with this win over the Pirates (4-3). River Rouge 21, Gibraltar Carlson 0 The reigning Division 3 champion Panthers (5-1) picked up their fifth shutout of the season, halting a Marauders offense that had averaged nearly 34 points per game as the team went 4-2 during the regular season. Allen Park 18, Trenton 7 The Jaguars (5-2) made it three straight seasons with playoff wins over the league rival Trojans (3-4).

Division 4

HEADLINER Ada Forest Hills Eastern 42, Allendale 0 The Hawks (4-3) missed the playoffs the last four seasons and hadn’t finished with a winning record since 2015. But they’ll finish at least .500 this fall thanks to their second shutout over the last four weeks, against an Allendale team that did open this season 3-0 before a tough final month. See highlights below from FOX 17.

District Digest Coopersville 26, Sparta 14 The Broncos (3-4) earned their first playoff win since 2007 as another No. 6 seed winner. Vicksburg 17, Plainwell 12 These teams didn’t get to play their Wolverine Conference game this fall, but Vicksburg (5-2) handed Plainwell (3-3) its only loss this season on the field. Madison Heights Lamphere 43, Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood 0 The Rams (7-0) earned their first playoff win since 2009, continuing their best run since at least that fall. Croswell-Lexington 40, Imlay City 26 The Pioneers (6-1) tied their winningest season since 2012 with their second victory this fall over Imlay City (4-3).

Division 5

HEADLINER Belding 32, Hopkins 18 The Black Knights’ surge continued as they’ve gone on to outscore three opponents by a combined 140-21 since losing to Hopkins by six in Week 7. That first-meeting win earned the Vikings (5-2) the O-K Silver championship, but this rematch allowed Belding (6-1) to move on in one of the strongest Districts in the state, regardless of division. Click for more from the Greenville Daily News.

District Digest Kingsford 13, Ogemaw Heights 6 The Flivvers (4-2) improved to 4-1 on the field, reducing their points-allowed average this fall to 12.4 per game. Howard City Tri County 33, Central Montcalm 7 All four Vikings losses this season have come by seven points or fewer, and this avenged a 7-0 defeat to the Hornets (4-3) in Week 7. Olivet 20, Hillsdale 17 The Eagles (6-1) emerged with a solid win in another strong top-to-bottom District, as the No. 6-seeded Hornets finished 4-3. Richmond 38, Macomb Lutheran North 7 Add the Blue Devils (3-4) as well to the No. 6 seeds that won over the weekend as they upset Lutheran North (4-3).

Division 6 

HEADLINER Clare 41, Kent City 6 The Pioneers moved to 7-0 by winning this matchup of league champions and added to a defensive effort that’s allowed just 8.6 points per game. Kent City (5-2) had averaged nearly 31 points per game entering the weekend. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun and see below for highlights from MI Sports Now. 

District Digest Negaunee 28, Gladstone 14 The Miners’ two losses on the field this season were by a combined four points, and with this win they avenged the first. Harrison 22, Sanford Meridian 14 Harrison (5-2) also avenged a loss after falling to Meridian (4-3) by 20 points in Week 6. Parchment 42, Coloma 40 The Panthers (3-4) started 0-4, with that fourth defeat by 11 to Coloma (4-3) in Week 7. Adrian Madison 34, Quincy 30 The Trojans (6-1) tied their most wins in a season since 2009 with their first ever in the playoffs.

Division 7

HEADLINER Evart 23, Houghton Lake 18 The Wildcats’ first playoff win since 2012 guaranteed its winningest season since 2016 and earned Evart (5-2) a rematch with Highland Conference champion McBain. Evart has won five straight since losing the first McBain game in Week 5. Houghton Lake finished 4-3, with two of those losses to the Wildcats. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

District Digest Madison Heights Bishop Foley 27, Madison Heights Madison 24 After beating Madison 34-2 in Week 9, Bishop Foley (6-1) had to rally to move on in the rematch a week later. Detroit Central 26, Detroit Community 22 The Trail Blazers (5-2) bounced back from two straight losses, while Community ended a season that saw three of its last four losses come by eight points or fewer. Bad Axe 19, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 12 Laker (4-3) made this rematch closer than Bad Axe’s 21-point win two weeks ago, but the Hatchets (5-2) were able to get to five wins for the first time since 2014. Cass City 36, Reese 26 The Rockets had come a long way since Cass City’s 42-3 win in Week 5, but the Red Hawks (7-0) held on despite giving up a point shy of half their season total.

Division 8

HEADLINER Gwinn 24, East Jordan 20 The Modeltowners earned their first playoff victory since 1999, improving to 4-3 after winning just a game a year ago – another wonderful tribute to late coach Dion Brown, who died unexpectedly in January. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

District Digest Unionville-Sebewaing 57, Marlette 14 The Patriots (5-2) are 12 points over two games from being undefeated and went over 50 points for the second time this fall. Detroit Leadership 8, Melvindale Academy of Business & Tech 6 The Cougars (4-3) earned the first playoff win in their five years as a program. Bark River-Harris 54, St. Ignace 20 The Broncos (4-2) opened this fall with two losses but haven’t lost since, in this win putting up one-third of their points for the entire season. Saranac 14, Potterville 0 After not winning since opening night, Saranac picked up its first playoff victory since 2011.

8-Player

Division 1 

HEADLINER Indian River Inland Lakes 34, Munising 22 After two straight winless seasons in 11-player, and three over its final four, Inland Lakes improved to 6-1 this fall by ending Munising’s first 8-player season at 4-3. This also was Inland Lakes’ first win in the playoffs since 1995. Click for more from the Cheboygan News.

Regional Roundup Merrill 66, Deckerville 22 The Vandals (6-1) opened their first 8-player playoffs with their highest-scoring game of the season, ending Deckerville’s season at 4-3. Gaylord St. Mary 86, Central Lake 54 By combining for 140 points, these teams earned a record book entry for fourth-highest scoring game in MHSAA 8-player history. Mesick 34, Vestaburg 0 The Bulldogs (5-2) won their first playoff game ever with their first shutout since last season. Mayville 48, Genesee 20 The Wildcats’ best season since at least the 1980s will continue as they earned a matchup with also-undefeated Adrian Lenawee Christian this week.  

Division 2 

HEADLINER Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 59, Burr Oak 18 The Bobcats (5-2) have to celebrate a season during which they tied their most wins since 1974. But the Defenders’ offense remains potent scoring nearly 43 points per game despite the team being only 3-4. And note, all four of those defeats came to teams in Division 1 or too large for the 8-player playoffs. Click for more from JoeInsider.com. 

Regional Roundup Lake Linden-Hubbell 48, Crystal Falls Forest Park 8 The Lakes (4-3) have gotten on the field for only five games, but they’ve made them count including with this big win over old rival Forest Park (4-2). Peck 30, Ashley 0 After losing 30-22 to the Bears (3-4) in Week 9, Peck (4-3) came back big a week later in the rematch. Colon 52, Climax-Scotts 14 The Magi (6-1) may have suffered a loss this season after a perfect 2019, but that hasn’t meant they’re done – especially considering that defeat came to Division 1 Lenawee Christian. Waldron 30, Tekonsha 6 The Spartans (5-2) nearly reversed a 28-point loss to Tekonsha (4-3) only three weeks ago. 

PHOTO: Marquette's Kameron Karp (23) is able to get by Muskegon Reeths-Puffer's Caden Brainard (8) but is taken down by Landon Mechem (32) at the 4-yard line during their Saturday matchup. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)