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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: Week 9 in Review

October 26, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Whether it’s 6-0, 0-6, or somewhere in between, your local football team deserves our admiration for a job well done this fall.

We started late, after not knowing if we’d play at all, and amid a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. And regardless of the wins and losses on the field, every team contributed to a figure worth celebrating – every week of this abbreviated regular season, at least 96 percent of varsity teams were cleared to play, a credit to the work done by players, coaches, administrators and families statewide to ensure that continued opportunity.

Of course, there were other memorable numbers established this weekend on the field – perhaps none more incredible than Bridgman’s record 47-point comeback highlighted in our 8-player review.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Midland 32, Midland Dow 6 The Chemics (6-0) nearly reversed last season’s 42-7 loss to Dow, in doing so clinching an outright Saginaw Valley League Blue title and their first perfect regular season since 2012. Midland held the Chargers (4-2) scoreless until the fourth quarter. With wins by both this week, they would meet again in a Division 2 District Semifinal. Click for more from the Midland Daily News and see highlights below from WJRT.

Watch list Grand Blanc 14, Saline 13 The Bobcats (5-1) finished runners-up in the SVL Red, but added to their intriguing playoff potential by handing Saline (5-1) its first loss.

Remember this one Davison 37, Lapeer 6 The Cardinals’ first regular-season win over Lapeer (3-3) since 2017 sealed the SVL Red championship. Davison (6-0) hosts Lapeer this week in Division 1 and has beaten the Lightning in the playoffs two of the last three seasons.

More shoutouts Fenton 33, Ortonville Brandon 21 The Tigers (6-0) remain undefeated after handing Brandon (5-1) its first defeat in this matchup of Flint Metro League divisional champions. Imlay City 28, Almont 14 The Spartans (4-2) defeated the reigning Division 5 runner-up Pirates (2-2) for the first time since 2008 and after losing 56-7 a year ago.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Macomb Dakota 42, Traverse City Central 16 The Cougars (5-1) are surging heading into the Division 1 playoffs, adding this win over Big North Conference champion Central to its shared Macomb Area Conference Red title. Dakota scored its season high and held the Trojans (5-1) to 36 points below their season average. Click for more from MLive-Detroit and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 23, Detroit Country Day 13 The Warriors (5-1) are on a roll heading into the Division 3 playoffs after handing Country Day (3-2) its first on-field loss of the fall.

Remember this one New Boston Huron 34, Dearborn Heights Crestwood 0 After tying for second in the Huron League, the Chiefs (5-1) are rolling into the Division 3 bracket as well after handing Western Wayne Athletic Conference champion Crestwood (5-1) its first defeat.

More shoutouts Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 40, Birmingham Groves 14 The Cougars (6-0) capped their first undefeated regular season by clinching the outright Oakland Activities Association White title against annual contender Groves (3-3). Detroit Catholic Central 45, Detroit Loyola 14 The Shamrocks (6-0) added the Prep Bowl Bishop championship to their Catholic League Central title, handing AA champ Loyola (5-1) its first loss.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Mason 40, Williamston 10 The Capital Area Activities Conference Red title came down to these two undefeated teams, and more specifically to Mason’s offense vs. Williamston’s defense. The Bulldogs (6-0) prevailed to repeat as champs, scoring nearly half of the points Williamston has given up all season while also holding the Hornets (5-1) to their season low. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal and see highlights below from WLNS.

Watch list Lansing Catholic 28, Pewamo-Westphalia 13 The Cougars (4-2) haven’t grabbed as much attention as usual this season, but consider their losses were to teams that are a combined 11-1 – and that they are headed to the playoffs having ended P-W’s 19-game winning streak.

Remember this one Clare 26, Sanford Meridian 20 The Pioneers’ only single-digit regular-season game decided the Jack Pine Conference title, as Clare (6-0) earned it outright and denied Meridian (4-2) a chance to share.

More shoutouts DeWitt 43, Stevensville Lakeshore 6 The Panthers (5-0) have been on a tear from the start, holding five opponents to six or fewer points and putting up 43 against a Lakeshore defense that was giving up only 10 per game. Olivet 61, Stockbridge 12 The Eagles (5-1) bounced back from their lone defeat to close out their fourth-straight Greater Lansing Activities Conference title.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Charlevoix 19, Maple City Glen Lake 8 Playing the Lakers (4-2) for the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders championship for the second year in a row, the Red Rayders claimed their first league title in football since 2000. The win also gave Charlevoix (6-0) its first perfect regular season since 1977, according to Michigan-football.com. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Johannesburg-Lewiston 60, Harbor Springs 29 The Cardinals (6-0) locked up their third-straight NMFC Legacy title and second-straight undefeated regular season by doubling up second-place Harbor Springs (3-3).

Remember this one Oscoda 24, Houghton Lake 6 The Owls (6-0) faced their toughest challenge this fall and answered it well, giving up their first points of the season but still holding Houghton Lake (4-2) to nearly 30 below their average.

More shoutouts Kingsley 36, Benzie Central 20 The Stags (6-0) closed out a second-straight NMFC Legends championship with their 20th-straight regular-season victory. Traverse City St. Francis 21, Jackson Lumen Christi 20 While reigning Division 7 runner-up Lumen (2-4) has had a tough run, this could end up a telling result as both head into the same division again and with St. Francis (4-2) a second seed while pursuing a seventh-straight District title.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Addison 56, Grass Lake 22 The Panthers (6-0) finished a second-straight perfect run through their Cascades Conference schedule and first undefeated regular season since 2006 while keeping Grass Lake (4-2) from earning a share of the championship. Addison has won three of its last four against the Warriors. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Chelsea 26, Monroe 17 The Bulldogs (6-0) finished a second-straight undefeated regular season with Monroe (4-2) their fifth opponent that finished .500 or better this fall.

Remember this one Clinton 21, Hillsdale 14 The Lenawee County Athletic Association title went to Blissfield, but Clinton (5-1) in its first season in the league won this matchup for second place, with the Hornets (4-2) ending in third.

More shoutouts Erie Mason 56, Pittsford 0 The Eagles (6-0) finished their first perfect regular season since 2003, and after last winning more than two games in a season in 2005. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 49, Detroit Southeastern 34 The Falcons (4-2) earned their most impressive win, handing Detroit Public School League 4 champion Southeastern (5-1) its only defeat.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Buchanan 20, Niles Brandywine 6 The list of accomplishments is growing for the Bucks (6-0) – they won the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference title outright, with their first perfect regular season since 2015, and after winning a combined five games over the last three seasons. Brandywine (3-3) had won the last three meetings between these teams, and two straight league titles. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.

Watch list Constantine 70, Coloma 32 The Falcons (5-1) finished a perfect run through the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore and earned the second seed in their Division 6 District opposite Buchanan.

Remember this one St. Joseph 22, Battle Creek Lakeview 14 There wasn’t a Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference title on the line this time, but there very well could be next time and St. Joseph (5-1) will enter that game with two wins in its last three matchups with Lakeview (4-2).

More shoutouts Edwardsburg 60, Paw Paw 6 The Eddies (6-0) completed their third-consecutive undefeated regular season and will be the top seed in their Division 4 District with Paw Paw (4-2) the third. Lawton 19, Saugatuck 2 The Blue Devils locked up second place in the SAC Valley and the second seed in a Division 7 District where they could face league champ Schoolcraft in two weeks.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Marquette 28, Calumet 6 Arguably the most impressive part of Marquette’s performance this fall has been its defense, which is giving up 13 points per game – a full seven points fewer than last year. Calumet (2-3) hadn’t been held to single digits since the 2018 playoffs, but Marquette (5-1) has held its last two opponents to six points apiece. Click for more from the Upbeat. 

Watch list Bark River-Harris 28, L’Anse 0 After an 0-2 start, Bark River-Harris (3-2) won its final three regular-season games and hasn’t given up a point in its last two.

Remember this one Escanaba 20, Gladstone 12 The Eskymos (1-2) bounced back from their first on-field loss with a 10th-straight win over Gladstone (2-3), enough to earn the fifth seed in their Division 4 District.

More shoutouts West Iron County 36, St. Ignace 22 The Wykons (6-0) capped their first perfect regular season since 2013 with their best offensive output of this fall. Sault Ste. Marie 60, Cheboygan 0 The Blue Devils (4-2) secured second place in the NMFC Legends.

West Michigan  

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 28, Grand Rapids South Christian 27 (OT) This was just about all that could be hoped for from a matchup of undefeated teams playing for a league championship. At the end, GRCC (6-0) had clinched its sixth-straight league title, back in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold, after winning outright or sharing the Blue championship the last four seasons. Click for more from WOOD TV.

Watch list Muskegon Mona Shores 35, Detroit Martin Luther King 21 This rematch of last season’s Division 2 Final ended with nearly the same score, great news for the reigning champion Sailors (3-3) and not necessarily bad for King (3-3) as it plays in Division 3 this time.

Remember this one Rockford 28, Grandville 8 The Rams (4-0) missed two weeks but came back in time to finish without a loss in the O-K Red while handing Grandville (5-1) its lone league defeat.

More shoutouts Hudsonville Unity Christian 42, Allendale 6 The Crusaders (6-0) finished a perfect run through the O-K Blue with their third single-digit defensive performance of the fall, holding Allendale (3-3) to a season-low points total. East Grand Rapids 12, Byron Center 8 The Pioneers (3-3) handed Byron Center (5-1) its only loss, allowing Forest Hills Central with its win over Lowell to share the O-K White championship with the Bulldogs.

8-Player

HEADLINER Bridgman 54, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 53 (OT) The Bees set an MHSAA record – 8 and 11-player – for largest comeback winning this game after trailing by 47 points. With Martin having to forfeit a game to Lawrence, the Bees (5-1) joined the Clippers as one-loss teams atop the final Southwestern Michigan 8-Man Football League standings. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Watch list Portland St. Patrick 52, Burr Oak 19 Handing Burr Oak (5-1) its only loss kept St. Patrick (6-0) undefeated and cemented the Shamrocks as the top seed in the Division 2 Playoffs. 

Remember this one Morrice 58, Deckerville 30 The Orioles (6-0) also are a top seed, in Division 1, but Deckerville (4-2) is a possible Regional Semifinal opponent.

More shoutouts Mayville 48, Kinde North Huron 28 The matchup of North Central Thumb League champions went to the Stars winner as the Wildcats (6-0) handed Stripes champ North Huron its lone loss (5-1). Merrill 38, Indian River Inland Lakes 6 The Vandals (5-1) continue to look like contenders, bouncing back off a four-point loss to St. Patrick by handing Inland Lakes its only defeat.

PHOTO: Addison blockers lead the way for a teammate during Friday's win over Grass Lake. (Photo by Scott Mapes.)