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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: Week 8 In Review

October 20, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Even with a shortened regular season, football teams across Michigan are equaling past accomplishments or at least making better on their performances of a year ago.

Many of our notes this week highlight the crowning, at least partially in some cases, of a league champion. But those other little successes – like surpassing last season’s win total, or ending a losing streak – also make every week memorable, with many more teams seeing the fruits of work and patience during an otherwise unpredictable fall.

Below is our look at many who found reasons to celebrate during Week 8.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Hemlock 12, Millington 6 Defense reigned as Hemlock (5-0) clinched the Tri-Valley Conference West championship – its first league title since 2012. Millington (4-1) continued to shine defensively, with its average points given up per game rising just a few tenths to 10.6 this season. But Hemlock’s defense was a score stronger, lowering its average points allowed this fall to 14.6 per game. Click for more from the Saginaw News and see highlights below from WJRT.

Watch list Marine City 24, Marysville 21 The Mariners (5-0) finished a perfect run through the  Macomb Area Conference Silver for the second-straight season, while extending their winning streak over Marysville (4-1) to four.

Remember this one Harbor Beach 42, Marlette 20 The Pirates (3-2) will finish second in the Greater Thumb Conference East but made sure only Sandusky will finish first by handing the Red Raiders (3-2) their only league loss of an abbreviated schedule.

More shoutouts Almont 28, Richmond 25 (OT) For the first time in a long time, these two aren’t really in the mix in the Blue Water Area Conference – but the rivalry remains notable as Almont (2-1) extended its winning streak to four.  Bad Axe 26, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 6 With Bad Axe (4-1) and Cass City not facing off this season – that game was among those canceled early on – this win cemented a shared GTC East championship for both.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Sterling Heights Stevenson 42, Grosse Pointe South 35 At the end of one of the most intriguing league races of this shortened season, Sterling Heights Stevenson finished tied for first with Macomb Dakota, thanks to this win that sent Grosse Pointe South (3-2) into third place. The Titans (4-1) continued a rise that began with last season’s run to the Division 1 Semifinals after they had finished only 1-4 in the Red last fall. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.

Watch list Detroit Cass Tech 41, Detroit Martin Luther King 19 After defeating King (3-2) by eight in their season opener, the Technicians (5-0) more than doubled that during this Detroit Public School League 1-2 championship game – a great sign with the postseason approaching.

Remember this one Clarkston Everest Collegiate 41, Royal Oak Shrine 7 This was the third time in five seasons these two decided the Detroit Catholic League Intersectional 2 championship, and the Mountaineers (5-0) are a win away from a second-straight undefeated regular season.

More shoutouts Dearborn Heights Crestwood 21, Garden City 12 After a down 2019, Crestwood (5-0) clinched its second Western Wayne Athletic Conference championship in three seasons. Canton 49, Hartland 28 The Chiefs (5-0) clinched the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West title outright and can finish a perfect league run against reigning champ Plymouth.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Mount Pleasant 21, Midland Dow 0 The Oilers (4-1) threw a wrench into an anticipated Saginaw Valley League Blue championship decider this week between Dow and Midland High. Mount Pleasant earned itself a chance at a shared championship instead, if the Chargers (4-1) are able to hand the Chemics their first loss Friday. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Watch list Holt 26, Portage Northern 0 The weekend’s biggest upset statewide saw the Rams (2-2) shut down Portage Northern (4-1), not only handing the Huskies their first defeat but holding them scoreless for the first time since 2014.

Remember this one Pewamo-Westphalia 30, Fowler 7 Although the Central Michigan Athletic Conference decided to not award a league champion because of the shortened schedule, the Pirates (5-0) still ran their league winning streak to 39 and run against Fowler (4-1) to six straight since the Eagles handed them that last CMAC loss in 2014.

More shoutouts New Lothrop 49, Durand 6 The Hornets (5-0) clinched another Mid-Michigan Activities Conference title by handing Durand (4-1) its first defeat. Williamston 17, Olivet 6 The Hornets (5-0) prepped for their Capital Area Activities Conference Red decider this week by handing Olivet (4-1) its first loss.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER McBain 23, Beal City 19 The Ramblers (5-0) locked up their first Highland Conference title since 2015 with their fourth-straight win over the Aggies (4-1), who also entered the evening unbeaten. McBain is one of 11 undefeated teams left in Division 7.  See below for highlights from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Kingsley 40, Sault Ste. Marie 6 With a game to play, the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends has belonged firmly to the Stags (5-0), who clinched a second-straight title by handing second-place Sault Ste. Marie (3-2) its first league loss.

Remember this one Traverse City West 45, Cadillac 27 These teams finished second and third, respectively, in the Big North Conference, and West (4-1) continued its string of four-straight 40-plus point offensive efforts since losing to eventual champion Traverse City Central in the season opener.

More shoutouts Traverse City St. Francis 35, Ogemaw Heights 14 The Gladiators (3-2) continued to establish solid footing in advance of the Division 7 playoffs with a win over Division 5 Ogemaw Heights (3-2). Maple City Glen Lake 18, Benzie Central 0 The Lakers (4-1) posted their second shutout of the season and are giving up only 6.6 points per game.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Erie Mason 56, Sand Creek 38 The Eagles’ offense continued to roll as they clinched a share of the Tri-County Conference championship, their first league title since 2003, while handing Sand Creek (4-1) its first defeat. Erie Mason (5-0) now also has as many wins as the last four seasons combined – and with 282 points, needs 48 more to equal how many it scored over nine games a year ago. The Eagles are averaging 56.4 per game. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Reading 26, Homer 19 The Rangers (4-1) losing to Jonesville in Week 6 was no reason to write them off, as they’ve bounced back to hand Homer (4-1) its first loss. Reading no doubt will root for Homer to take down Jonesville this week to set up a shared Big 8 Conference title.

Remember this one Blissfield 42, Ida 40 The Royals (5-0) earned a share of the Lenawee County Athletic Association title, but only after holding off the Bluestreaks (2-3) after they were tied with less than nine minutes to play.

More shoutouts Michigan Center 42, Manchester 7 The Cardinals (2-1) got one game in this fall before having to take two weeks off, but they’ve won both matchups since returning to the field. Adrian Madison 46, Pittsford 6 The Trojans improved to 4-1, equaling their win total from last season and setting them up for a possible fifth victory – which would give Madison its winningest finish since 2009.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Schoolcraft 45, Lawton 14 The Eagles (4-1) clinched a share of the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley title, to go with their shared SAC Lakeshore championship from last season, and by defeating the Valley’s 2019 champ. Schoolcraft shut down a Lawton offense that averaged 42.5 points per game during its 4-0 start. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette and see highlights below from FOX 17.

Watch list Constantine 43, Kalamazoo United 28 Last season these two and Schoolcraft shared the Lakeshore title, and this win over the formerly co-leading Titans (4-1) guaranteed the Falcons (4-1) will do at least the same again.

Remember this one Stevensville Lakeshore 13, Battle Creek Lakeview 7 Although the Southwestern Athletic Conference also isn’t awarding a league champion this season, this was a display of the strength among the league’s teams as Lakeshore (4-1) handed Lakeview (4-1) its first defeat.

More shoutouts Battle Creek Harper Creek 50, Marshall 27 The Beavers (3-2) have picked up two straight impressive victories and with one more would have their winningest season since 2017. Coloma 24, Watervliet 16 The Comets (4-1) put themselves in position to force a shared Lakeshore title with Constantine up this week.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Marquette 27, Escanaba 6 To say the Great Northern Conference has navigated twists and turns this fall would be an understatement. But at the end of the league schedule, Marquette (4-1) is champion for the second straight season, and Escanaba (0-2) was able to get back on the field for the first time this year. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Watch list Menominee 41, Gladstone 0 Two losses to Marquette have Menominee at 3-2, but in the Maroons’ two wins on the field they’ve averaged 41.5 points.

Remember this one Houghton 15, Negaunee 13 The Gremlins (2-1) have been forced to miss multiple games as well, but on this night were able to break a recent two-game losing streak to the Miners (3-2) and avenge last season’s 35-0 defeat.

More shoutouts West Iron County 20, Gwinn 14 (OT) The Wykons (5-0)  held Gwinn (2-3) scoreless in overtime and then scored on their ensuing set of downs to remain undefeated. Calumet 34, Hancock 18 The Copper Kings (2-2) tuned up for what could be an intriguing regular-season finale this week with Marquette.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Montague 34, Whitehall 31 (2OT) A double-overtime field goal won this game for Montague in one of the state’s longest- running rivalries, giving the Wildcats a 64-48-2 advantage since they began playing in 1921 – and more importantly, a share of another West Michigan Conference championship. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Watch list Grand Rapids Catholic Central 28, Ada Forest Hills Eastern 3 The Cougars (5-0) set themselves up to face Grand Rapids South Christian this week for the outright Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold title.

Remember this one Muskegon 15, Zeeland West 14 The Big Reds (4-1) came back from a 14-0 deficit to knock Zeeland West (4-1) out of a tie for first place (with Mona Shores)  in the O-K Green.  

More shoutouts Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 35, Lowell 22 the Huskies opened 0-2 but have won three straight to equal their win totals of each of the last two seasons. Grand Rapids West Catholic 34, Allendale 12 The Falcons (4-1) held on to second place in the O-K Blue and will now cheer for Allendale (3-2) to defeat league leader Hudsonville Unity Christian this week.

8-Player

HEADLINER Portland St. Patrick 26, Merrill 22 Both should have championship aspirations, as St. Patrick (5-0) entered this game No. 2 in Division 2 based on playoff-point average, and Merrill (4-1) was tied for No. 2 in Division 1. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Morrice 57, Kingston 0 The Orioles (5-0) moved into the No. 2 spot alone in Division 1 playoff-point average and have yet to score fewer than 52 points in a game this season while allowing 34 total over five games.

Remember this one Kinde-North Huron 36, Peck 6 The Warriors clinched their second league title in four seasons, this time in the North Central Thumb League Stripes, while improving their scoring margin to a combined 222-12 this fall.

More shoutouts Cedarville 32, Munising 8 The Trojans moved to 4-1 by handing Munising (4-1) its first defeat and locking down an offense formerly averaging 34.5 points per game. Deckerville 56, Genesee 36 The Eagles (4-1) bounced right back from the Week 7 loss to Mayville with another 50-point performance.

PHOTO: Battle Creek Pennfield takes the field at the start of a 49-7 win over Jackson Northwest on Friday. (Photo by Scott Mapes.)