Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: Week 5 Preview

September 24, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Most years, we’d talk this weekend about Michigan high school football teams being in midseason form.

They’re getting there quickly – and with another series of big-time matchups these next few days helping all of us get back up to speed.

Major rivalries will play out again in Muskegon, Flint and Metro Detroit among various communities all over the state. Some of the most noteworthy games are briefly previewed below. Check out the MHSAA Score Center beforehand for kickoff times and locations of all games, and come back Friday and Saturday for scores as they’re reported.

This week we’ll also have 53 varsity football games broadcast on MHSAA.tv; click the link for listings.

Bay & Thumb

Flint Hamady (1-0) at Flint Beecher (1-0)

Anthony Branch’s coaching tenure after Courtney Hawkins left for Michigan State began with a 27-19 win over Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard last week. The Bucs’ biggest game of the regular season is up next, and Branch has plenty of experience in Hamady matchups after serving previously as an assistant coach and having played in the Beecher program. The Hawks have won all three regular-season matchups with the Bucs since the teams rejoined the same league in 2017.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Davison (1-0) at Grand Blanc (1-0), Frankenmuth (1-0) at Saginaw Swan Valley (1-0), Sandusky (1-0) at Harbor Beach (1-0), Saginaw Nouvel (0-1) at Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (1-0).

Greater Detroit

Sterling Heights Stevenson (1-0) at Macomb Dakota (1-0)

These two finished fifth and fourth, respectively, in the Macomb Area Conference Red in 2019. But together last week they defeated reigning champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (Dakota 29-20) and runner-up Utica Eisenhower (Stevenson 7-3). Dakota owns a five-game regular-season winning streak against the Titans, including last year by a 40-14 score. But Stevenson may be continuing a surge that took it to last year’s Division 1 Semifinals – a run which included a 38-35 win over Dakota in the District Final.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Dearborn Fordson (0-1) at Belleville (1-0), Detroit Mumford (1-0) at Detroit Cass Tech (1-0). SATURDAY Detroit Catholic Central (1-0) at Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (1-0).

Mid-Michigan

Midland Bullock Creek (1-0) at Ithaca (1-0)

These two are in different divisions of the Tri-Valley Conference West this fall. But a year ago they were in the same division and shared the championship, breaking Ithaca’s streak of nine straight outright league titles. The Yellowjackets won last year’s matchup 35-21, but Bullock Creek was able to grab a championship share after Ithaca fell to Hemlock 30-6 in the league finale. Both opened last week with wins over 2019 playoff teams, Ithaca over Saginaw Nouvel and Bullock Creek over Carrollton.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY DeWitt (1-0) at Grand Ledge (1-0), LeRoy Pine River (1-0) at Beal City (1-0), Leslie (0-1) at Stockbridge (1-0), St. Johns (0-1) at Williamston (1-0).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Ogemaw Heights (1-0) at Kingsley (1-0)

Ogemaw Heights is coming off its first winning season since 2013 after going 8-3 a year ago. Kingsley, meanwhile, posted its best finish since 2005 at 12-1 and with a run to the Division 5 Semifinals. A 36-19 Week 2 win over Ogemaw Heights was among seven victories total the Stags posted against teams that finished with winning records. And this matchup should mean more in the future as Ogemaw Heights has joined Kingsley in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends division.  

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY East Jordan (1-0) at Harbor Springs (1-0), Traverse City St. Francis (0-1) at Grayling (1-0), Petoskey (1-0) at Traverse City Central (1-0), Oscoda (1-0) at Rogers City (1-0).

Southeast & Border

Breckenridge (1-0) at Reading (1-0)

Added just this week, this might be one of the top small-school matchups in the state this season. Reading has won the last two Division 8 championships and defeated Breckenridge 39-20 in the 2018 title game. This could be a preview of another playoff matchup to come. Together they defeated their season-opening opponents last week by a combined score of 95-6.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Blissfield (1-0) at Hillsdale (1-0), Brooklyn Columbia Central (1-0) at Clinton (1-0), Riverview (1-0) at Milan (1-0), Battle Creek Pennfield (1-0) at Parma Western (1-0).

Southwest Corridor

Saugatuck (1-0) at Schoolcraft (1-0)

This might have gotten a little more attention a year ago, as these two frequently are the best or near the top of their divisions of the Southwestern Athletic Conference. Schoolcraft was a co-champion in the Lakeshore last season, but Saugatuck finished sub-.500 overall for the first time since 2006. Saugatuck got off to a winning start last week, however, as did Schoolcraft – and this fall both are in the SAC Valley.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Marshall (0-1) at Coldwater (1-0), Portage Northern (1-0) at Mattawan (1-0), Decatur (0-1) at Cassopolis (1-0), Coloma (1-0) at Kalamazoo United (1-0). 

Upper Peninsula

Sault Ste. Marie (1-0) at Marquette (1-0)

Granted, it’s just one week to go on. But based on early returns, these might be the best in the Upper Peninsula this fall. Sault Ste. Marie opened with a seven-point win over Traverse City St. Francis, while Marquette downed Menominee by 23. Marquette has beaten the Blue Devils in four straight including 31-0 a year ago, but despite last year’s defeat Sault Ste. Marie went on to its winningest season since 2013. A win tonight could end up the Sault’s highlight of this shortened season.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY West Iron County (1-0) at L'Anse (1-0), Hancock (1-0) at Bessemer Gogebic (0-1), Menominee (0-1) at Marinette, Wis. (0-0), Norway (0-1) at Houghton (1-0).

West Michigan

Muskegon Mona Shores (1-0) at Muskegon (1-0)

This easily is the headliner of the week, matchup up a pair of teams that reached Ford Field a year ago. A 53-0 Muskegon win over Shores in Week 8 was among dominating victories that pushed the Big Reds to a Division 3 runner-up finish. The Sailors, meanwhile, didn’t lose again after that night, stringing together a series of mostly close wins on the way to the Division 2 title. Muskegon has a five-game winning streak in this rivalry matchup, but a much closer finish than last year’s has to be the expectation this time.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Montague (1-0) at Muskegon Oakridge (1-0), Rockford (1-0) at Caledonia (1-0), Byron Center (1-0) at Grand Rapids Christian (0-1), Hudsonville Unity Christian (1-0) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (1-0).

8-Player

Colon (1-0) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (1-0), Saturday

Colon’s move to 8-player in 2018 proved beneficial and then some as the Magi went a combined 23-2 over the last two seasons and won the 8-player Division 1 title a year ago. Lenawee Christian’s move this fall could usher in similar dominance for the Cougars, who finished 10-2 and just missed defeating eventual Division 8 champion Reading in the Regional Final last year. Lenawee opened its 8-player era with a 62-0 win over another first-year 8-player team Athens last week, while Colon downed frequent playoff qualifier Bellevue 45-6.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Portland St. Patrick (1-0) at Vestaburg (1-0), Merrill (1-0) at Atlanta (1-0), Pickford (1-0) at Cedarville (1-0). SATURDAY Newberry (0-1) at Munising (1-0).

PHOTO: Johannesburg-Lewiston opened last week with a 47-14 win over Mancelona. (Photo by Robert Batzloff.)