Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Lumen Christi Legacy Grows with D6 Triumph
November 23, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
DETROIT – Herb Brogan’s teams over 39 years coaching Jackson Lumen Christi have succeeded in part by regularly capitalizing on opportunities.
Give the Titans an inch … and in Friday’s case, they’ll take 28 straight points.
Halftime came just in time for Lumen Christi as all momentum had been lost during the Division 6 Final at Ford Field. But when Montague couldn’t keep the swing going into the second half, the Titans took the opportunity and made school history.
Lumen Christi rode a defensive stop and four straight touchdowns to a 42-28 win over the Wildcats – clinching the program’s 11th MHSAA football championship and third straight, a program first.
“The whole year, and really since freshman year, we’ve been talking about it,” Titans senior Nick Thomas said of the three-peat opportunity. “We had two good grades above us. We said we’re going to do it with those two grades, and we’re going to become the first team to make history.
“That just became a major motivator, during those early morning grinds, getting there an hour early instead of a half-hour early. You’re already sweating before anybody else gets there. We were working before anybody else gets up, and that was a big emphasis the whole season – and it paid off 10 times over.”
Lumen Christi last season became the program’s third repeat champion, and Friday’s win was the Titans’ 23rd straight – they finished 13-0 this season, with an open date Week 9.
Brogan improved his career record to 356-83 since taking over the program in 1980. He sits fifth all-time for state football coaching wins, and this season pulled within five of fourth place and longtime Waterford Our Lady coach Mike Boyd’s 361.
Although senior Bryce Stark gave Montague the game’s first lead with a 57-yard scoring run midway through the first quarter Friday, Lumen Christi tied it up with a 57-yarder by Thomas two minutes into the second. Senior Cy’Aire Johnson scored on a 40-yard pass from senior Joe Barrett a little more than two minutes later, and after senior Bobby Willis’ interception on Montague’s next possession, it seemed like the Titans might break away.
But not yet. Three plays after throwing the interception, Montague sophomore Drew Collins recovered a fumble, and Stark ran for his second touchdown to tie the score with 1:17 to go in the first half.
Lumen hustled to get to Montague’s 28-yard-line during the next minute – but Wildcats senior Sebastian Archer snagged an interception.
The score stood tied at halftime. And Montague (11-3) was set to get the ball first in the third quarter.
“It was a question mark: who was going to wear who down? They wore St. Francis down last weekend (in the Semifinal), and if you talked to those guys, they were tired,” Brogan said. “One of the things we talked about at halftime, it just comes down to playing with pain. You’re going to be uncomfortable for the next 24 minutes, but what are the results going to be if you can put up with that level of discomfort, push yourself and make plays and make some memories.”
The first possession of the third quarter didn’t include a score, but it should be memorable as the start of Lumen’s final surge.
Montague took the opening kickoff, and over three plays went backward one yard. Lumen scored on its next four possessions, twice getting the ball back on turnovers and a third time after a turnover on downs when the Wildcats had driven to the Titans’ 24.
“We ran out of gas today. They’re folding guys in all the time, and we just don’t have those guys,” said Montague coach Pat Collins. “Our guys worked hard. I’m proud of our guys. That’s who we are. We have nine guys going both ways … they’ve got a whole bunch of guys playing football, and that’s tough.
“If it was a video game, and your guys don’t get tired, that would be a closer game and maybe the ‘Cats would be on top. But it wasn’t; this is real life. … I love my guys. They’re great players. They just got tired.”
The Titans used 22 players to Montague’s 18, and Collins said the difference was most noticeable up front as the game wore on.
Lumen Christi ran for 216 of its 348 rushing yards during the second half.
“Our running backs always push us to try to be better and better every day,” Lumen junior lineman Keegan Smith said. “After every play, they’re saying ‘one more, one more.’ And ‘we’ve got 24 minutes (left)’ at halftime. They pushed us and we told each other, let’s do it for the brotherhood of the line and just try to make history.”
Thomas finished with 249 yards on 28 carries and scored twice. Barrett threw two touchdown passes – senior Dayton Keller caught the second, and Johnson and senior Brock Fitzpatrick also ran for scores. Thomas had a team-high 10 tackles.
The Wildcats cut the deficit to 14 late with two touchdown passes from Collins to junior Brennan Schwarz. Stark ran for 156 yards and three scores on 19 carries. Junior Mark Vanderleest had 12 tackles and Schwarz nine for Montague, which was playing in its first MHSAA Final since winning back-to-back titles in 2008 and 2009.
The Wildcats’ only defeats this fall were to Lumen Christi, Division 5 finalist Portland and Division 5 District champ Reed City. Montague is 39-8 over the last four seasons and 22-4 over the last two.
“Since my freshman year, the seniors set the bar pretty high,” Archer said. “Sophomore year, the seniors did their part. Junior year, I love each and every one of those seniors and they’re great guys.
“This year I felt like we raised the bar.”
PHOTOS: (Top) Jackson Lumen Christi’s Nick Thomas (10) breaks past a defender during Friday’s Division 6 Final at Ford Field. (Middle) Thomas, Delton Langley (35) and Bobby Willis celebrate the Titans’ championship.